Market Updates

Dow Jones down 143 (-0.43%) with the S&P 500 down 0.21% and the NASDAQ -0.35%. The S&P 500 is up 6.5% year to date. The European STOXX index hit a one-year high. Good results from the bank sector were offset by a weaker-than-expected retail sales number on Friday (March retail sales fell 1.0% v consensus of -0.4%, February was revised down, Core retail sales -0.3%).

Manufacturing production fell 0.5%. The 10 year bond yield was up 6.4bp with a two year bond yield up 12.2bp. The US dollar rose 0.54%. The copper price dropped, the nickel price was up 4.62%. The oil price was up a touch. BHP was down 1.79% in the US with RIO down 1.9%. The VIX volatility index fell 4%. Gold lost $35 as it pulled back from its one year high, not helped by the rise in the US dollar.

JPMorgan saw a 52% rise in profits in the last three months despite loan loss provisions up 56%. Net interest income was up 49%. Wells Fargo net interest income was up 45%. The Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley report Tuesday and Wednesday.

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ASX 200 rose 38 points to 7362 (+0.5) after a slow start and a rethink ahead of the US reporting season. For the week, the ASX 200 is up nearly 2%. Gold miners led the way higher with NCM up 1.9% and NST running 4.4% higher. Lithium stocks also in demand, PLS up 5.0% and AKE bouncing 5.4% with IGO rallying 5.3%. Iron ore stocks flat as we await news of Cyclone Ilsa. Banks better too after BOQ pre-result results this morning with a $200m write-down of good will. The Big Bank Basket up to $173.80 (+0.9%). MQG up 0.7% and insurers firmed too. MFG continue to bleed down another 2.7%. Industrials firm, staples bouncing back, COL up 0.2% and WOW rallying 1.0%. CSL weaker with REITs mixed, GMG down 1.4%.  Interest rate sensitive stocks did ok, QAN up 0.6% and TCL up 0.1% with Tech a little dull.  The All-Tech Index up 0.3%. In corporate news, GMD is set to raise $450m in two tranches to buy SBM’s Leonora gold assets, WES CEO sells around $9m worth of shares and KAR fell 5.4% after delays to bring production back online after maintenance shutdown. BOQ fell 0.9% on a pre-result result and a write down of $200m on a 2007 acquisition.Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets mostly firmer. 10-year yields up to 3.33% Dow futures down 65 points. NASDAQ futures down 20 points.

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US equities finished sharply higher closing near best levels. S&P and Nasdaq now both higher week to date. Fresh economic data showed cooling inflation and a loosening labour market, fuelled optimism the Fed would be nearing the end of its aggressive rate hike cycle. Gold hit a 13-month high, while the USD weakened. Treasuries little changed, rallying initially before retreating a touch. All three major US stock indices surged more than 1% with interest rate-sensitive tech stocks providing the most support pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq up nearly 2% to its biggest one-day percentage jump in nearly a month. Dow Jones up 383 points (+1.14%). Dow up 408 at best, and down 41 at worst. S&P 500 up 1.33%. NASDAQ up 1.99%. VIX Volatility Index down 6.8%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 +0.7% FTSE +0.2% CAC +1.1% DAX +0.2%. SPI Futures are up 15 points (+0.20%).

• Wall St rallies to higher close as inflation data feeds Fed pause hopes.
• US yields rise modestly, but downtrend intact in wake of weak data.
• Dollar dips as producer prices cool, euro hits one-year high.
• US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling.
• Location, location, location: U.S. manufacturing boom has a real estate problem.
• Amazon cranks up AI competition against Microsoft, Google with new cloud tools.
• Twitter to let users offer content subscriptions in monetization push.
• Alibaba's Hong Kong shares slump on SoftBank's stake sale report.
• Google faces judge's questions as it asks court to toss U.S. antitrust lawsuit.
• OPEC cites risks to summer oil outlook as backdrop to shock cut.
• Copper hits two-week high on strong Chinese data and weak dollar.
• Gold rallies to 1-year peak as economic worries mount.
• Oil falls 1% on recession fears, OPEC summer demand warning.

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ASX 200 fell 20 points to finish at 7324 (-0.3%), letting go of some of yesterday’s gains. Energy sector leading the gainers today, WDS +1.1%, STX +5.3%, and COE +6.5%. Banks are down, WBC down 0.1% after getting upgraded to neutral from underperform at Macquarie, The Big Bank Basket falling to $172.21 (-0.9%) CBA falling 1.0%. Tech doing ok, with WTC up 1.5% and CPU up 1.4%. The All-Tech Index up 0.4%. Healthcare stocks were mostly down, CSL down 0.6% and RMD off 0.3%. REITS firmed GMG up 1.4% and URW up 1.0%. Bad day for miners BHP, RIO, and FMG all off 0.9%, 0.7%, and 1.8%, respectively as Cyclone Ilsa heads for WA. Gold miners finish in positive territory, NST up 0.7%, PRU up 1.2% and DEG firm 2.2%. Industrials lagging beyond again, TCL down 0.2% and QAN down 0.6% while DOW gained 2.6%. On the corporate front, Corporate Travel Management (CTD) surged +12.1% after being awarded a 2-year contract by UK Home Office worth £1.6B, Wesfarmers (WES) -0.7% offloads 37.2m shares in Coles (COL), OZ Minerals (OZL) +0.1% declares fully franked dividend of 175c per share. In economic news, Australian jobs data comes in hotter-than expected, holding near 50-year lows at 3.5% against forecasts of 3.6%. Labour market remains tight. Australian housing demand seen strengthening even further amid the migration surge, NAB’s April housing update attributed the recent rise in home values to low supply and extremely tight rental conditions, and additional demand form overseas migration. In Asian trade, Japan up 0.1%, HK down 0.7% and China down 0.3%. Dow futures up 9 points. NASDAQ futures up 21 points.

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Dow Jones down 38 points (-0.11%). Dow up 211 at best, and down 91 at worst. S&P 500 down 0.41%. NASDAQ fell 0.85%. VIX Volatility Index down 0.1%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 +0.02% FTSE +0.5% CAC +0.1% DAX +0.3%. SPI Futures are down 3 points (-0.04%).

• Copper prices also rose 1.01% due to lower-than-expected US inflation numbers.
• Nickel +0.17%, Aluminium +1.46%, Zinc +0.94%, Lead+2.16%, Tin +1.81%.
• WTI crude rose 2.11% and Brent rose 2.04, to the highest level since November 2021, due to a weaker dollar and concerns over tight supplies.
• Gold rose 0.57% overnight due to signs of cooling inflation and an increasing likelihood that the US Federal Reserve may pause its policy tightening.

HEADLINES

• ASX to open flat, Wall Street slides on data, rate outlook.
• Wall Street closes lower after Fed minutes, inflation data.
• Dollar, stocks slip after Fed minutes spur recession fears.
• Slowing US inflation shifts investor focus to earnings season.
• Warner Bros Discovery unveils revamped 'Max' in push for streaming growth.
• Nvidia enhances mid-range video gaming chip with AI technology.
• Credit Suisse rescue package rejected by Swiss parliament.
• Several Fed officials considered rate pause in March, minutes show.
• Yellen pushes for 'bold action,' more reforms at World Bank this year.
• Biden looks to boost EV sales with plan to cut vehicle emissions.
• Gold shines as bets for US rate hike pause gather pace.
• Copper rises after cooler than expected U.S. inflation data.
• Oil rises 2% on lower-than-expected US inflation data.

ON THE CALENDAR

• Domestic data: Unemployment Rate, Full-Time Employment Change.

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ASX 200 gaining 34 points to finish at 7344 (+0.5%) with positive sentiment from the RBA interest rate pause still carrying over into this week. Healthcare continues to rise as the sector takes advantage of the interest rate reprieve. MPL up 0.9%, now up 22.3% in total from the post-cyber-attack lows. CSL up 0.7% and RMD up 0.6%. Resources doing well despite the IMF downgrading global growth forecasts, BHP up 1.9% and RIO up 2.7%. Lithium performed poorly today as fears of a fall in the price of lithium sent PLS down 4.1%. Gold miners continuing their gains as Newmont dropped overnight on their revised offer for NCM, down 0.3%. NST up 1.8% and AGG up 2.4%, as bullion steady at $US2023. Energy stocks ease, oil prices remain steady, WDS and STO unchanged. Coal copping a bit of a beating as WHC downgrades full-year forecast, off 3.2% and NHC down 0.5%.  REITs holding steady. Banks taking one of the biggest hits for the day, the Big Bank Basket down to $173.07 (-0.4%). MQG mostly stable up 0.4%. CBA and NAB both down 0.5%. Industrials mixed, ALL down 0.4% and QAN down 2.1% while TWE gained 2.3%. On the corporate front, WHC downgrades full-year guidance, PTM reports a net outflow of $223m for March. MQG considers selling their Indian highway projects, estimated to be worth $1.5bn. In economic news, consumer confidence rose by 1.1 points, the third week of consecutive increases. The IMF downgraded their global growth forecasts and warned of a hard landing for the global economy and prolonged inflation.  In Asian trade, Japan up 0.8%, HK down  0.6% and China up 0.3%. Dow futures up 36 points. NASDAQ futures down 2 points.


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US equities lacked conviction overnight, trading in a narrow range as the markets brace for the latest CPI report and FOMC minutes on Wednesday that could signal if the Fed lifts rates once again. Gold edged up above the $2,000 level as the dollar came off Monday’s peak, while oil strengthened despite weak data from China pointing to persistently weak demand. US treasury yields higher showing surprising resilience amid current macro environment. Equity markets in Europe rallied after a long four-day easter holiday, supported by mining stocks lifting the STOXX 600 hitting a one-month high. Dow Jones up 98 points (+0.28%). Dow up 195 at best. S&P 500 flat. NASDAQ down 0.43%. VIX Volatility Index up 0.7%. In Europe, Stoxx 50 +0.6%, FTSE +0.6%, CAC +0.9%, and DAX +0.4%. SPI Futures are up 25 points (+0.34%).

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ASX 200 rose strongly to 7310 up 91 points (1.3%) in quiet post-Easter trade. Both banks and resources fired up with industrials solid too. BHP led the resources gaining 2.1% with RIO up 1.9% and FMG gaining 2.9%. Gold miners too were better despite bullion easing, NCM saw the bid increased from Newmont rising 5.2%. NST up 2.1% and EVN up 3.9% on production guidance. Base metals and lithium found some love, MIN up 3.6% and AKE gaining 2.7%. LTR pushed ahead by 1.2% with CHN doing well too, up 3.3%. Energy stocks were better, WDS up 0.8% and STO rising 1.1% with KAR outperforming up 6.2%. Coal stocks flat, though. Banks better with WBC leading the charge up 1.8% as results loom. The Big Bank Basket rallied to $173.72 (1.1%). MQG a little underwhelming up only 1.1%. Fund managers modestly better with GQG up 1.5% on FUM increase. REITs firmed with SGP up 3.7% and GMG up 1.5%. Industrials firm but not spectacular, TLS pushing 0.5% ahead. WES up 1.4% and AGL firming 2.6%. Tech a bit floppy with the index slightly higher. In corporate news, a little quiet with NCM the focus. Better consumer confidence numbers locally and in China the CPI came in below forecasts. In Asian trade, Japan up 1.2%, China down 0.4% with HK flat. Dow futures up 46 points, Nasdaq futures up 2 points.

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US stocks mixed overnight, closing mostly flat after clawing back steep losses in early trade after strong jobs data revealed a still-tight labour market, supporting bets for another Fed hike in May while the yen weakened after the new BoJ governor vowed to maintain an ultra-loose policy. Trading was light as markets were closed in Europe, Australia and Hong Kong for Easter. Focus now shifting to the CPI report due Wednesday and the first round of companies reporting Q1 financial results for further clues about the economy's health and likely future of interest rate hikes. Future show a 71.1% likelihood that the Fed will hike rates by 25bps to 5-5.25% next month. Dow Jones up 101 points (+0.30%) closing near highs. Dow up 105 at best, and down 142 at worst. S&P 500 up 0.10%. NASDAQ down 0.03%. VIX Volatility Index up 3.1%. SPI Futures are up 9 points (+0.12%).

• Bond vigilantes are back as debt matters again.
• Goldman Sachs to pay $15m fine for swap disclosure violations.
• Funds dump 10-year Treasuries, eye steeper U.S. curve.
• Apple supplier Japan Display teams up with China's HKC as seeks turnaround.
• OpenAI CEO considers opening office as Japan govt eyes adoption.
• World Bank chief raises 2023 global growth outlook slightly, eyes debt progress.
• New BOJ chief vows to stick to ultra-loose policy for now.
• Gloomy U.S. bank sector could yield payoff for contrarian options bets.
• Peru will mine more copper in 2023, lithium permits pending.
• Oil settles lower as rate-hike worries balance tighter supplies.
• China ends Taiwan drills after practising blockades, precision strikes.
• Ukraine battles rage, Kyiv reported to rethink counter-offensive after leak.

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ASX 200 gives back 18 points to finish at 7219 (-0.3%) down as lacklustre trade ahead of NFP and Easter took hold. US futures easing slightly, not helping sentiment. Profit taking across the board with healthcare and CSL a pocket of strength. CSL up 2.2% and RMD up 0.9%. Resources under pressure still as lithium remains depressed, PLS slipping again, down 3.2% and AKE off 3.5%, LTR falling back 2.6% slightly after Albemarle downgraded by BoA. Iron ore stocks remain under pressure, BHP off 0.4% and RIO down 0.3% with base metals easier and rare earths down, LYC off 2.4%. Gold miners steady and finding some limited support as AUD bullion remains above $3000. Energy stocks ease, oil prices down, WDS off 1.0% and coal not such a merry old soul. WHC off 0.9% and NHC down 2.2%. REITs slipped despite 10-year yields falling again, Banks drifted lower with the Big Bank Basket down slightly to $171.895. and MQG down 0.7%. MFG took another leg down 3.7% off with ASX 3.2% better on higher futures volumes and a broker report. Industrials drifted off, ALL down 2.4% and FLT down 2.6% with TLS still holding up and tech slip sliding away. XRO off 2.6% and WTC down 2.3%. On the corporate front, not much to get excited about today. In economic news, we had some trade data showing imports falling and the RBA stability report, warning of risks ahead. In Asian trade, Japan down 1.3%, China back from Tomb Sweeping and down 0.4% with HK down 0.3% Dow futures down 38 points. NASDAQ futures down 52 points.

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