Market Updates

The ASX 200 wandered around again today, waiting for the Fed, closing down 7 points to 8579 (0.1%). Banks eased back slightly, CBA down 0.5% and the Big Bank Basket fell to $267.79 (0.4%). MQG sliding another 0.7% again with other financials easier. Insurers came back to earth, with QBE down 0.4% and IAG off 1.0%. Industrials were flat, retailers fell, APE down 2.3% and JBH off 2.3% with TPW continuing to slide, off another 3.0%. WES was a bright spot up 0.7%, maybe lithium exposure! Healthcare eased back too, CSL down 0.1% and COH off 2.5%. Tech fell yet again, WTC down 1.9% and XRO sliding further, TNE off another 1.3%. Interest rate sensitive stocks under pressure. QAN down 0.8% and TCL off 1.3%.

In resources, iron ore stocks picked up, BHP up 0.5% and FMG up another 0.9%. Gold miners up as RMS announced a $250m buyback. NST up 5.1% and EVN up 4.5%. Silver stocks also having a good run. Oil and gas fell and uranium stocks rose slightly.

In corporate news, SBM up 10.9%, it secured a strategic partner and funding for Simberi, DRO popped 16.2% on a LW article. 4DX jumped 6.0% on a new order in the US. GQG unchanged on FUM data.

On the economic front, we had Chinese CPI slightly higher than expected.

Meanwhile in Asia, Japan down 0.1%, HK down 0.5% and China down 0.8%.

10-year yields higher at 4.80%.

US Futures – Dow down 4 and Nasdaq down 28.

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US stocks were middling overnight as the market sweats the Fed tomorrow, US time. The Nasdaq was up 0.13% and the S&P500 down 0.1%.The only notable move from big tech was Tesla stabilising 1.3% after its 4% drop in the previous session. The news about Nvidia selling into China couldn’t keep the stocking firing, with it slipping 0.3%. There’s pushback to the deal from Democrats and China “hawks”. Gold and lithium shares showed strength and silver hit a record high of US$60 an ounce. Bitcoin rallied to $92k. JP Morgan fell 4.7% on CFO comments on costs in 2026 dragging the Dow down.

SPI futures up 24 points. The ASX is set to open higher.

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The ASX 200 fell 39 points to 8586 (0.5%) after the RBA kept rates on hold as forecast. The index was down a similar amount before the 2.30pm announcement. Banks drifted lower, CBA down 0.6% and WBC off 0.6% with insurers staging a modest recovery, QBE up 1.2% and MPL rising 2.7%. MQG dropped another 0.9% with PNI falling 1.1%. REITs mixed, GMG down % with the rest of the sector better. Healthcare eased, CSL down 2.0% and RMD falling 2.3%. Retail stocks fell on the rates news, JBH off 1.9% and APE dropping 2.2% as SUL fell in sympathy with BAP, down 21.3% on another nasty trading update. Telcos slid lower, TLS down 0.6% and TPG with some issues fell 1.6%. Tech once again on the nose, XRO off 0.7% and TNE down 1.6% with 360 falling hard.

In resources, iron ore stocks firmed, FMG up 1.7% and RIO flat. Gold miners drifted lower, PRU off 1.5% and NST falling %. Oil and gas stocks eased, uranium mixed, PDN and DYL to the good, LOT down to the bad. Lithium stocks holding, up but rare earths sliding back to earth.

In corporate news, LTR dropped 2.3% on a new offtake deal, WAF fell 0.7% on drilling results.

On the economic front, the RBA left rates unchanged. The board does not seem to be in a hurry to raise them either.

Meanwhile in Asia, Japan up 0.2%, HK down 0.8% and China down 0.1%.

10-year yields higher at 4.75%.

US Futures – DJ up 9 points and Nasdaq up 10.

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US stocks were down overnight as the market keeps sweating the Fed meeting coming up. All sectors in the red. SP500 down 0.35% and Nasdaq off 0.14%. Bond yields also kept pressing higher. There’s still been plenty of action. The major report is that Nvidia will be allowed to sell its H200 chips to China, sending the stock up 1.7%.

 Paramount Skydance is launching a hostile bid for Warner, at $30 per share, all cash. The Netflix bid was at $27.75, split between $23.25 in cash and $4.50 in Netflix common stock. Either bid has to make it past regulators. Trump is critical of Netflix. 

SPI futures down 24 points. ASX to open lower. Don’t expect much to happen until the RBA release at 2.30pm.

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The ASX 200 slipped 10 points in quiet trade to 8624 (0.1%). Banks eased slightly with ANZ and NAB down around 0.7%. The Big Bank Basket up to $269.33 (0.3%). Other financials and insurers were firm, QBE up 1.1% and ZIP doing well, up 5.7%. Industrials wafted around, retailers fell with JBH and WES showing modest losses. REITs were slightly better, led by GMG and TLS had a good day as did REA. Technology stocks were mixed, WTC up 0.8% and XRO continuing to fall, off another 0.6%. The All-Tech Index rising 0.1%.

In the miners, iron ore majors came under a little pressure, with RIO off 0.9%. Gold miners too were under some pressure as bullion drifted lower, NST down 1.4% and EVN off 2.1%. Lithium stocks were on a roll. PLS up 6.1% and LTR blasting 14.8% ahead on UBS upgrades and short covering. Uranium stocks down, modest losses only. BOE the exception falling 4.5%.

In corporate news, NSR got an agreed bid from Brookfield-GIC at 286c. S&P have downgraded their credit outlook for ASX Ltd to “negative” from “stable”. TNE have backed the new CFO following his time with CTD.

On the economic front, RBA meeting tomorrow, and almost a shoe-in for no change to rates. The AUD is trading at a 3-month high.

Meanwhile in Asia, Japan up 0.5%, HK down 1.0% and China up 0.7%.

10-year yields steady at 4.70%.

US Futures – DJ up 18 points and Nasdaq up 66.

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Wall St ground higher Friday ‘Expectations for Fed rate cuts’ was the excuse for last week’s market rally and that same narrative supported a more modest rise in the three major indices this week. S&P 500 up 0.3% vs the ASX 200 up 0.2%. Nasdaq up 0.9% and the Dow up 239 points. S&P 500 up 0.2% overnight after PCE inflation and consumer spending prints from September both met expectations. Light volume. Nasdaq up 0.3%. Dow up 104 points. Risk-on Technology and Discretionary stocks leading the pack. Value, Utilities and Resources worst.

SPI down 13 - NSR agreed bid.

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• US markets mixed: S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished narrowly higher for the week, with small caps outperforming; leadership came from AI enablers, banks, brokers, machinery and select retail, while consumer defensives and cyclicals lagged.
• Rates, FX & commodities: US Treasury yields rose 3–5bp with the curve flattening; the US dollar strengthened, gold gained 0.3%, Bitcoin fell 1.1%, and WTI crude rose 1.2%.
• Market tone: Trading lacked clear macro direction as investors focused on company-specific news (Micro > Macro) ahead of key AI earnings events, the final Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, and lighter seasonal volumes.
• Key company moves: Meta surged on reports of 30% metaverse budget cuts; Dollar General beat and raised, while Kroger and Costco disappointed; mixed reactions across tech and retail earnings.
• Economic data & Fed outlook: Jobless claims hit the lowest level since 2022, but annual layoff announcements are the highest since 2020; markets are pricing ~90% chance of a 25bp Fed rate cut at the upcoming meeting.

SPI up 20 - Energy stocks in focus.

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The ASX 200 meandered around waiting for the Test to start. At the close, the index was up 23 points to 8618 (0.3%) in a narrow trading range. Banks found some buyers with the Big Bank Basket rallying to $266.71 (0.8%) as ANZ continued higher, up 1.7%. Financials generally were on hold, REITs slid with GMG down 2.7% as higher bond yields took their toll after household spending showed renewed strength. Industrials too were wishy washy, ALL down 0.7% and COL off 1.7% with retailers falling, JBH down 2.1% and TPW falling another 2.4%. STP fell hard on a trading update. Tech stocks were slightly firmer, WTC did better after the investor day yesterday, up 1.7%, with 360 also better. The All-Tech Index drifted 0.3% lower.

Resources were all about copper. BHP up 3.6% with RIO joining the fun and rising 3.9%. Gold miners slipped as a stronger AUD took its toll. Lithium stocks are also coming off the boil with VUL copping it on the capital raise and ex-entitlement. Oil and gas are modestly higher, with uranium stocks mixed. 

In corporate news, BEN is in the frame with job cuts, REG sold some aged care homes, and GEM updated the market on its former employee facing an additional 83 charges. 

On the economic front, stronger-than-expected household spending reignited rate rise fears. 

Asian markets, Japan recovered 1.8% with HK up 0.2% and China up 0.3%.

10-year yields pushed higher again to 4.69%.

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US stocks were up modestly overnight, with the Nasdaq up 0.17% and the SP500 0.30%. The Dow was up 408 points. Private sector data showed that payrolls declined in November. Government numbers won’t be available until after the Fed meeting. It was enough to support stocks for the day, plus some helpful inflation data. There wasn’t much action in big tech, but the broader chip makers had a strong day and the small cap index the Russell 2000 rose 1.9%. US financials also lifted. The VIX settled lower at a benign reading of 16. Bitcoin is holding the line at US$93k.

SPI futures are up 21 points. ASX to open modestly higher.

We could be in for some action in the miners today. Copper rose 2.9% to hit a record high of US$11540. This good for copper producers on the ASX including SFR and CSC plus BHP and RIO. Copper is now up 31% this year.

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