Market Updates

The ASX 200 shook off early losses as banks pushed ahead. The index closed down 2 points at 7800 (0.03%), with CBA hitting a record high! Up 4.2% The strength here has masked underlying index weakness.  Other banks trailed in its wake with the Big Bank Basket up to $260.87 (+2.5%). Other financials were mixed, GQG up 2.9% with CGF also doing well, IFL dropped 4.3% on a broker downgrade, PNI fell 2.4% and XYZ off 5.5%. REITs also fell hard, GMG down 1.6% and CHC falling 1.2%. Industrials also fell with tech under serious pressure, WTC down 2.4% and the Index down 2.0%. Retail fell too, LOV off 1.6% and APE down 1.6%. Travel stocks fell, FLT off 4.1% and CTD falling 2.9%. In resources, gold miners were the stars again, NST up 3.0% and EVN pushing 4.9% ahead as copper hit a two-week high. GMD up 1.4% and OBM rose 3.0%. Lithium miners fell as CATL is pushing ahead with sodium-ion technology. Uranium stocks trounced as DYL paused its Namibian operations, falling 8.2% and PDN down 12.5%. Iron ore miners steady, despite the fall in iron ore in Singapore. In corporate news, MQG rose 0.6% as it sold is asset management business to Nomura. BGL fell 7.1% after more detail on its hedge book emerged. ILU and REE joined forces to bid for a Kenyan Rare earth project. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets were better than expected with 10-year yields at 4.23%.

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Wall Street saw red as Trump continued his attacks on Fed Chairman Powell. Markets feared for the central bank’s independence. S&P 500 down 2.36%, NASDAQ down 2.55%. Dow dropped and stayed near low throughout day. Rose a little before close. Down 972 points. All sectors down. Growth sectors fared worst as risk off sentiment reigned. Consumer Cyclicals and Tech both down. Telsa drove consumer cyclicals sell off. Down 5.7% ahead of earnings later today. NVIDIA was leader of Tech fall. Down 4.5%. Suffered again from US clampdown on China exports. Uber down 3.1% after FTC sues for misleading subscribers. Resources down. Oil down 2% after signs of progress in US-Iran talks.

Waiting for Tesla - MQG sells asset management business.

ASX SPI futures closed over Easter. Expected to fall given drop in US.

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A good end to the week as the ASX 200 rose 60 points to 7808 (0.8%), breaking through as SPI expiry boosted volumes. Positive US futures helping the Easter Bunny remain positive., For the week the ASX 200 is up 2.3%. Today was all about gold and resources, BHP up 1.1% and RIO up 2.9% doing well on broker reactions to production reports. Gold miners better, but looking a little tired short term, EVN up 1.7% and NST up 1.2% with VAU up 3.2%. Lithium saw some gains, PLS up 4.4% and MIN up 2.4% with LTR up 3.9%. ILU doing well on the rare earths play, up 5.6%. Oil and gas stocks rose, WDS up 3.9% with STO up 2.9% with KAR rising 7.6% on Q1 report. Uranium stocks gaining, as shorts covered, PDN up 4.1% and BOE up 4.0%. Banks were solid, the Big Bank Basket up to $254.43 (+0.7%). Financials were better with CGF rising 10.2% on a 3Q update. IFL rose 3.3% as DD was extended another 4 weeks to both bidders. REITs better as rate fell, 10-year yields dropping to 4.28%. Industrials firmed, with CPU up 1.0%, REA up 0.9% and JHX rallying 2.3% on news big investors are lobbying the ASX to scrutinise the takeover. In corporate news, AMP rallied 3.2% after an increase in net cash flows, BHP shipped weaker-than-expected volume of Australian iron ore over the past three months. PLS blamed the cyclone for a production drop, up 4.4%. WTC fell 2.2% as ASIC looking at White’s trades. On the economic front, we got jobs numbers, 4.1% with 32k new jobs slightly below forecasts. Asian Japan up 0.8%, HK up 1.3% and China off 0.2%. 

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Wall Street recorded a negative session yesterday as Powell cautioned that larger than expected tariffs would result in slower growth and higher short term inflation. S&P 500 down 2.24%, NASDAQ down 3.07%. Dow began day down and dropped further following Powell’s comments. Closed near low. Down 700 points. All sectors down excluding Energy. Tech suffered heaviest losses, driven by chipmakers as US tightened curbs on exports to China. Nvidia down 6.9%, ASML down 7.1%. Other growth sector, Consumer Cyclicals, second worst performer. Tesla down 4.9%, coincided with 15% sales drop in California in Q1. United Airlines (-0.02%) relatively stable yesterday, guided resilient performance backed by premium travel offerings. Resources mainly up. Oil up just under 2%, 2-week high as US sanctions Iranian oil. Copper and Nickel also gained.

ASX to fall. SPI futures down 26 points (-0.33%). Gold hits records - Quarterlies drop.

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ASX 200 gives up gains to close down 3 points at 7759 as US futures turn down on Nvidia news. Banks as usual a safe place to be, the Big Bank Basket up to $252.55 (1.0%). WBC up 1.5% and MQG unchanged. Financials mixed, ZIP rising 16.2% on a very positive update and upgrades. REITS firmed with SCG up 1.2% and VCX up 0.5% whilst GMG fell 0.5%. Industrials were weaker, SGH down 1.5%, GYG fell 3.5% and FLT off 2.3%. Retail stocks eased back, LOV down 2.5% and AX1 off 6.3%. Tech fell, the All-Tech Index dropped 0.6% as WTC announced Richard White had a new role. Same as the old role really. XRO fell 1.2%. Resources were slipping again, iron ore miners fell, BHP down 1.2% with RIO off 2.7% and FMG falling 2.4%, Gold miners soared as quarterlies are pointing to the cash piling up, GMD up 8.4% and EVN kicking 1.3% higher again. Energy stocks under pressure, WDS down 2.3% and WHC falling 7.4% with uranium stocks once again on the nose, the fallout continues, PDN down 4.6% and BOE off 4.6%. In corporate news, BOQ up 5.5% on higher margins, SGR trading again unchanged as the rescue plan continues to play out. KAR up 1.6% after raising expenditure guidance. In economic news, Chinese GDP beat estimates. Locally building activity fell, the total number of dwelling units commenced fell 4.4% to 41,911 dwellings. Asian markets under pressure, Japan down 1.3%, HK off 2.3% and China off 0.7%. 10-year yields rose to 4.34%.

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Wall Street recorded a negative session overnight as nerves surrounding Trump’s tariffs remained. Second session with tight trading range after volatility of last two weeks. S&P 500 down 0.17%, NASDAQ down 0.05%. Dow initially rose but fell throughout session. Ended near low. Down 178 points. Boeing, one of biggest Dow weights, dropped 2.36% after China ordered airlines to reject further deliveries. 

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The ASX 200 consolidated the move yesterday with a gain of 13 points to 7762. Easter is calling it seems. Banks were the key with the Big Bank Basket up to $250.19 (0.6%). CBA up 0.5% and MQG gaining 0.8% too. Other financials were a little soggy, GQG down 1.9% with HUB falling 2.9% despite good FUA numbers. PNI dropped 5.0%. REITs eased back too, GMG down 1.2% and SCG down 0.9%. Healthcare saw CSL better despite threats from Trump to put tariffs on pharma; Industrials drifted lower. WOW down 1.8% with REA off 1.8% and tech under some pressure. WTC down 2.2% with XRO falling 1.5% as the All-Tech index dropped 0.8%. Retail generally slipped with SUL off 2.9% and FLT falling 2.8%. Resources were flat in the main; EVN had a great quarterly and rose 3.9%, whilst other gold miners saw some profit-taking; BHP, RIO, and FMG showed slight gains. LYC and other rare earth stocks in demand,  as China blocks exports. Uranium and coal stocks falling away, NXG down 2.6% and NHC off 1.3%. In corporate news, BGL resumed trade down % as it raised $156m to buy back its hedge. CKF fell 7.7% on news it will close Taco Bell. PPT fell 1.4% as money left the building and AX1 up 4.7% on news of Sports Direct launch. On the economic front, The RBA minutes left the door open for a possible May rate cut. Asian markets mixed, Japan up 0.9%, HK down 0.3% and China down 0.3%. 10-year yields falling to 4.35%.

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Wall Street responded positively to Trump’s announcements over the weekend of temporary exemptions for electronics and possibly autos. Muted session, longer-term uncertainty remains. S&P 500 up 0.79%, NASDAQ up 0.64%. Dow recovered from some midday softness to end the session closer to the high, up 312 points. All sectors up.  Real Estate was largest winner, rate sensitive sector, benefitted from US yields falling after last week’s rise. Mood was cautious, defensive sectors did well, Utilities and Consumer Non-Cyclicals. Apple (+2.21%) largest winner of Big Tech, most to gain from electronics temporary tariff relief. Amgen (+2.78%) up despite antirust suit over US patient access to Erelzi. Pfizer (+0.96%) stopped development of obesity pill over liver injury risk. Resources mixed, oil flat, copper up amid China stimulus hopes and a declining dollar. Other metals like aluminium and zinc down.   

ASX to rise. SPI Futures up 18 points (+0.23%).

• Gold down 0.39%, still near record highs. US dollar (-0.40%) down again, status as safe haven is taken a bruising. Bitcoin up 1.36%.
• European markets up, all major markets recorded gains >2%. Euro Stoxx up 2.69%, Germany up 2.85%. More modest gains in Asia. Japan up 0.88%, HK up 2.40%.
• Bond yields gave up some of last week’s gains and stabilised, US 10Y dropped 11.4bps, US 2Y dropped 11.7bps.

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It was a solid start to the week, with the ASX 200 up 102 points to 7749 (1.3%). Strong banks and resources are taking us up. The Big Bank Basket rallied to $248.77 (+1.6%). CBA was up 1.7%, and WBC was up 1.6%. Insurers also better with MQG flat as some downgrades coming through. REITs rallied hard, GMG up 2.4% and SCG up 1.8%. Industrials were better but lagged, WES up 1.1% and SGH up 2.7% with the supermarkets flat, retail rose, LOV up 2.4% and JBH rallying 2.4%. Travel stocks were a little better, tech doing well, WTC up 3.1% and XRO rising 2.3% with the All-Tech Index up 2.1%. TLS slipped a little. In resources, iron ore miners rose, BHP up 2.7%, RIO up 1.4% with the gold miners pushing up although gold saw some profit taking. NEM up 4.5% with EVN up 2.6%. MIN had a good day as some shorts covered again, PLS rallied 3.3% with IGO up 3.2%. Oil stocks inched up WDS up 1.1% and STO up 1.8% with uranium and coal stocks better, WHC up 4.8% and DYL up 3.9%. In corporate news, NEU jumped 21.1% on a positive end point for its Phase III trial. DEG up 1.6% as GOR will vote in favour of the NST deal. Nothing locally on the economic front.  Asian markets better, Japan up 1.6%, HK up 2.1% and China 0.3% higher. 10-year yields steady around 4.41%.

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Wall St finished higher after the most volatile week we have seen since covid. Four primary market drivers overnight – China increasing tariffs again, US investment banks kicking off quarterly earnings, calming comments from Fed officials and both consumer sentiment and inflation expectations coming in worse than expected. S&P 500 up 1.8%. Nasdaq up 2.1% and the Dow up 619 points. Closing near the high. VIX down 8%. The headlines weren’t particularly good (see below), but there are signs ‘peak fear’ has been reached.

Main negative driver was China keeping up the tit for tat tariff escalation. Last night it raised tariffs on US products from 84% to 125%. Refusing to back down. On the positive side, Trump has repeatedly said he ‘respects Xi’ and is ‘open to negotiations’. The AFR had some good data yesterday on how dependant China is on the US. A lot would surprise you. Considering China’s reputation as the manufacturing powerhouse of the world, the sector only accounts for 20% of GDP and just 15% of its exports to the US. Australia on the other hand ships a third of all goods to China, less than 5% go to the US.

Investment bank earnings started well. JPMorgan Chase (+4%), Morgan Stanley (+1.4%) and Wells Fargo (-0.95%) all beat estimates. Ted Pick, MS CEO was the most optimistic on the outlook, saying the US economic could avoid a recession. The others more pessimistic, which limited big gains. Wells Fargo couldn’t finish in the green after management said its NIM will fall at the lower end of guidance. BlackRock (+2.6%) rose after its assets hit a fresh record of $11.58T. Larry Fink there hasn’t been a systematic rotation out of US equities into Europe and Asia but didn’t rule anything out.

SPI up 18  - Trump exempts electronics from some tariffs - Lutnick says its temporary.

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