Market Updates

The ASX 200 roared back from oversold levels last week and rose 135 points to 8202 (1.7%) as Santa came to town. The slow burn turned into a book squaring short covering rally led by the banks. CBA rose 2.9% with ANZ up 2.4% and the Big Bank Basket up to $(). MQG had a good day along with insurers and other financials. QBE up 1.1% and ASX rising 2.0% on relief that it fixed CHESS. REITs were firm, GMG rallied 1.8% and Industrials also ran hard. TLS up 1.0% on selling Foxtel along with NWS up 3.3%. WES bounced back 3.3% with retail doing well, JBH up 3.7% and SUL rising 5.0%. Tech pushed higher although a little muted, WTC up 1.5% and XRO up % with the All-Tech Index up %. Resources also rebounded although BHP and RIO were tepid at best. FMG up 1.1% and the gold sector rallied with NST up 1.6% and NEM up 3.3%. Even lithium shorts were active ahead of the break, PLS up 3.9% and LTR up -.9%. Uranium stocks better as were oil and gas. In corporate news, EML lost an MD and fell 22.2% with NWS selling Foxtel to DAZN. PME up 2.7% on another contract win. Nothing on the economic front.

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US markets bounced on Friday night after PCE inflation numbers came in slightly less than expected. Settling some nervousness after last weeks Fed meeting thrust progress on inflation back into the spotlight. The PCE index increased from 2.3% to 2.4% in November, vs 2.5% expectations. Consumer spending also rose 0.4%, signalling economic resilience. It is the largest contributor to US GDP at 2.5% (YoY). All three major indices rebounded on the last triple-witching day of the year. The S&P 500 rose 1.09%, and the NASDAQ rose 1.03%. The Dow added 498 points (+1.18%). Up 874 points at best. Gains weren’t enough to offset losses in the week. The S&P 500 had its worst week in over a month thanks to Wednesday night’s 2.95% drop.

ASX to open near flat. SPI futures up only 13 points. CHESS issue has been sorted.

COMMODITIES

• Nippon Steel alleges undue White House influence on doomed deal review-letter.
• Lure of Anglo's copper mines could test BHP's spending resolve.
• Codelco copper output misses November target, document shows.
• Gold climbs after soft US inflation data; still set for weekly loss.
• Oil steady as markets weigh Fed rate cut expectations, Chinese demand.
• Trump wants EU to buy more US oil and gas or face tariffs.
• Copper set for weekly fall on strong dollar, concerns about demand prospects.
• Iron ore posts weekly loss as seasonally weak demand weighs.

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The ASX 200 fell hard again today, down another 101 points to 8067 (1.2%) as the banks came under pressure. For the week the ASX 200 is down 2.8% with the US Triple witching and Core inflation numbers due tonight. Traders taking profits on the sector after a great year. The Big Bank Basket dropped to $246.54 (-2.9%). CBA the big drag on the index down 3.7%. MQG dropped 2.3% with other financials also feeling the pain. Insurers too was tossed out, QBE down 1.0% and SUN down 1.8%.  REITs were mixed, GPT up 0.2% and SCG off 0.3%. Industrials were sold down but escaped the worst of the sell off. WES not so fortunate having announced the sale of Coregas, losing 5.0%. Retail stocks slid with WOW and COL falling slightly. Utilities found some friends as defensives, ORG up 1.4%,  tech mixed. The All-Tech Index fell %. Resources were far better off than the banks, BHP off % and FMG bucking the trend up %. Gold miners eased but only marginally, NEM off % with EVN only down 0.7% on the CFO moving on. Oil and gas better, WDS up 2.0% on broker comments following Chevron deal yesterday. Coal stocks down but uranium mixed. In corporate news, VNT up 3.8% after a $400m deal with TLS. DEG down 2.8% on an update in Hemi project. QHL rose 40.5% on a takeover bid. MSB came back to earth with a thud falling 20.7% after FDA approvals yesterday. In economic news, the PBoC kept rates on hold. In the US, a bill to keep the government funding in place was rejected.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average was higher Thursday, rebounding from its 10th straight loss. The 30-stock Dow added 24 points, or 0.07%. The S&P 500 was little changed, as was the Nasdaq Composite.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.566% on Thursday after climbing more than 13 basis points to cross 4.50%.

Gross domestic product accelerated at a 3.1% seasonally adjusted annualized pace during the July-through-September period, 0.3 percentage point better than the previous estimate and above the 2.9% Dow Jones consensus estimate.

Consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of all activity in the $29.4 trillion U.S. economy, rose 3.7% in the quarter, 0.2 percentage point faster than the prior estimate.

ASX SPI down 51 - Triple Witching in US tonight - Commodities weak on USD strength.

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The ASX 200 tumbled 141 points to 8168 as the Fed grew hawkish and warned on rate cuts next year. Everything was hit hard. The banks fell with CBA down 2.3%, ANZ dropped 2.6% as the AGM saw another shareholder strike against Shayne Elliott. The Big Bank Basket fell to $253.85 (-2.3%). MQG down only 1.3% with some insurers up on the day, QBE up 2.1% with MPL rallying 0.5%. REITs were sold down on higher rates, GMG down 2.3% and SCG off 1.2% with industrials under pressure. Retail fell as JBH dropped 2.4% with LOV down 3.2% and WES off 1.3%. WOW fell 1.3% but COL rose 0.3%. Tech stocks came under pressure, REA down 2.5% and WTC off 2.2% with XRO falling 2.6%. In resources, most rallied off lows, BHP down 1.5% and FMG falling 3.9%. Gold miners under pressure on bullion falls but in AUD terms, it held steady, EVN down 2.8% and NEM off 3.6%. Energy stocks fell, WDS down 1.9% despite a deal with Chevron, WHC dropped 4.0% and PDN rose 1.3% as Canadian authorities cleared the Fission bid. DYL hammered 12.1% as the FID was postponed until early next year. In corporate news, MSB went ballistic, up 54.0% on FDA approvals, IPL fell 2.9% on its AGM update. PMT rose 15.9% on a deal with VW. AGL fell 0.7% as a court ordered it to pay $25m over customer failings. In economic news, Australian household wealth increased by 2.4% in the September quarter.  The BoJ left rates unchanged. Tonight, we get the BoE and rates are likely to be left unchanged.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell hard with the index posting its 10th straight losing day as a disappointing rate outlook by the Federal Reserve rocked the stock market.

The Dow lost 1,123.03 points, or 2.58%, to 42,326.87, for its worst losing streak since an 11-day slide in 1974. The Wednesday decline was its worst since August and only the second time it lost 1,000 points this year in one session. 

The S&P 500 lost 2.95% to 5,872.16 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.56% to 19,392.69 with losses intensifying into the close of trading.

• Stocks tumble after Fed cuts rates, signals slower cut pace.
• Fed dials back rate cut expectations for 2025, market now pricing in two 25bp cuts.
• ASX to drop, $A plunges as Fed signals rate pause near – AFR.
• Treasuries slide and US dollar jumps to highest since 2022 on more hawkish than expected Fed SEP.
• BOJ meets for final rate review this year as Trump risk clouds outlook.
• US EPA approves California plan to ban sale of gas-only cars starting in 2035.

ASX SPI down 123 - Gold falls 2% - Bitcoin drops.

• Oil settles up after US crude stocks fall, Fed's 2025 outlook curbs gains.
• Gold hits one-month low after Fed signals slower easing pace in 2025.
• Copper edges up after hitting two-week low.
• Iron ore slips as supply worries ease, demand slows.
• Barrick Gold seeks arbitration over Mali gold mine dispute.
• US crude stocks fell last week as exports jumped, EIA says.
• Despite revamped proposals, Nippon Steel deal on track to be blocked, letter says.

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The ASX 200 fell 5 points to 8309 as early gains melted away. Fed decision tonight. Banks were under pressure for a change with CBA down 0.9% and ANZ off 0.2% as the Big Bank Basket fell to $259.93 (0.6%). Insurers slid too with SUN off 1.7% and IAG falling 2.2%. REITs were generally firmer, GMG up again, Healthcare had a good day with CSL leading the charge higher on hopes of vaccines being unaffected in the US. Industrials were ok. TCL rising 1.9% and CPU up 1.8% with tech doing ok. WTC up 1.1% and the All-Tech Index up 0.8%. APA fell 2.4% in utilities following broker comments on Basslink miss. Resources were mixed, BHP and RIO flat, gold miners fell, WGX up % an exception. Uranium stocks slightly better, and oil and gas mixed. In corporate news, the IFL board rejected the Bain overtures, OBL rose 50.3% on a good deal with Ares. MSB will begin a Nasdaq listing next week. VUL rallied another 1.9% on further EU loan commitments. On the economic front, Dr Jim released MYEFO showing a $22bn budget blowout. In Asian markets, Japan down 0.5%, HK rose 0.7% and China up 0.5%. 10-year yields at 4.28%.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for its first nine-day losing streak since the 1978. The 30-stock average shed 347 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% , while the Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.5%.

ASX SPI down 14. Waiting for Fed - NAB AGM today.

Commodities

• LME Copper prices fell to a two-week low, down 0.81%. Aluminium dropped 1% touching a one-month low over surplus concerns.
• Iron ore ended 0.24% lower in a range-bound trading session as markets weighed slowed shipments and weak demand from China.  
• Gold dropped 0.30% pressured by a stronger USD ahead of the Fed’s rate decision tomorrow.
• Lithium off 0.14%. Saudi Arabia plans a pilot program to extract lithium from Aramco's oilfield brine. Lithium Infinity will lead the project with Ma'aden and Aramco, Vice Minister Khalid al-Mudaifer announced.
• WTI eased 1.0% on demand worries following negative economic releases from Germany and China.

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 The ASX 200 kicked higher today by 65 points to 8314 (+0.8%) as the usual suspects rallied hard. The Big Bank Basket was up to $261.38 (+1.4%). CBA stood out, rising 1.6% MQG gained 1.0% with insurers doing well too. Financials generally attracting buyers, SQ2 up 1.6% and HMC up 3.0% in tandem with DGT bouncing back hard. REITs also back in demand ahead of the Fed this week, GMG up 1.7% and SCG rallying 1.2%. Industrials, too, moving firmly ahead, ALL up 1.9% with TCL up 2.1% and BXB extending its run up another 0.5%. Both COL and WOW were better with retail finding Xmas cheer, LOV up 2.3% actually, DMP up 1.0% and FLT better. Tech better, WTC up 1.1% and the All-Tech Index up 1.2%. Resources were mixed, iron ore stocks eased slightly, lithium still depressed, gold miners mixed with NEM off 0.5% and WGX up 4.3%. Energy stocks eased again with WDS down 1.0% and PDN off 2.0%. In corporate news, NVX gained 3.4% on a conditional loan from the US DoE. DTL fell 9.8% on a change in Microsoft incentives. KAR fell 9.7% on a shut in for the Bauna gas field in Brazil and APA fell 1.5% as the regulator rejected the Basslink conversion. SPG also returned to a listing after almost 20 years. Canned down 26.9% PPT fell 0.4% on the independent report failing to recommend the offer. Nothing on the economic front. Asian markets trending lower, HK down 0.4%, China up 0.6% with Japan down 0.1%. 10Y yields steady at 4.30%.

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The Nasdaq Composite rose to a record, aided by a rally in tech, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. The tech-heavy index gained 1.24% to 20,173.89, while the S&P 500 added 0.38%, closing at 6,074.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed, losing 110.58 points, or 0.25%, to end at 43,717.48. The 30-stock Dow fell for an eighth day, marking its longest run of losses since 2018.

ASX SPI down 14 - WBC CFO Retires - Bitcoin hits US$106k

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