Market Updates

ASX 200 slid 47 points to 8250 (0.6%) as banks remained solid and resources sunk. Iron ore stocks fell hard as Chinese retail data showed no real sign of a stimulus helping. BHP down 2.0% and FMG off 3.8%. Lithium stocks remain depressed, PLS off 3.1% and MIN falling 2.0%. Gold miners too under pressure as bullion comes off the boil. NEM down 3.6% with NST off 2.1% and VAU dropping 8.0%. Oil and gas eased with uranium stocks under pressure on a spot price downgrade from UBS. Banks help up with the Big Bank Basket solid at $257.88 (+0.3%). Insurers are also doing well, SUN up 0.8% and IAG up 1.2%. Other financials withered and died, ASX off 0.7% with HMC down 13.7% following DGT much lower. REITs fell, GMG down 1.8% with SGP down 1.0%. Tech eased back, WTC lost 1.8% with XRO down 0.3%, the All-Tech Index fell 1.0%. Retail was mixed, LOV up 0.5% and PMV down 1.8%. GYG dropped 3.6% with LNW down 1.9% too. In corporate news, not much around today. In economics, the RBA has been shaken up a little bit with two new appointments to the Interest rate-setting committee. Chinese data was lacklustre. Again. Asian markets drifted lower, Japan down 0.1% and China and HK falling 0.4% and 0.6% respectively. 10-year yields rose to 4.31%.

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Wall St ended near flat on Friday night, giving up early gains in a quiet session. The Dow dropped 86 points (-0.20%). Its seventh loss in a row was the longest stretch since 2020. Doesn’t reflect much about the US market, there’s only 30 stocks in the equal weighted index. The S&P 500 closed flat, while the NASDAQ outperformed gaining 0.12% (+0.8% at best). Supported by gains in chip stocks as Broadcom rallied 24.43%. Tipping the company’s valuation over $1 trillion, becoming the 10th public company to achieve the milestone. It predicted a massive expansion in demand for chips that power AI, expecting a $60bn-90bn AI revenue opportunity by 2027. More than four times the current size of the market. Other chip markets were mixed, Nivida down 2.2% and AMD lost 2.8%, while Marvell rose 10.8% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 3.4%. Treasury yields rose across the board. The US 10Y yield up 6.5bps, hitting a three-week high while the 2Y yield gained 5.2bps. Bitcoin rose 1.62% on Friday night and jumped another 1.3% over the weekend to $102,877. USD Index flat, and the Aussie dollar slipped 0.17% to 63.56US cents.

ASX set to fall. SPI futures down 39 points (0.47%).

COMMODITIES

• Copper output in Peru down 1.4% in October.
• LME stocks data supports copper, but dollar dominates.
• Gold slips, but set for weekly rise on potential US Fed rate cut.
• Oil up 2%, settles at 3-week high as more sanctions loom on Russia, Iran.
• UAE to cut oil shipments amid OPEC+ push for quota discipline, Bloomberg News reports.

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ASX 200 fell 34 points to 8300 (-0.4%) with a late rally saving some blushes. Down 1.5% for the week. Banks showed some resilience, with CBA attracting investor interest as a safe-haven option. The Big Bank Basketrose to $257.08 (+0.2%), with MQG up 0.3% with insurers easing slightly. REITs fell with NKOTB DGT falling 9.0% on debut. Not a great debut. Industrials were mixed, WOW up 0.3% and ALL rallying 1.2% as WES fell 1.3% and QAN dropped 1.2% on more industrial action. Resources fell significantly as iron ore prices dropped in Asia. BHP lost 1.5% with FMG continuing its wild ride down 3.7%. Gold miners sagged on lower bullion prices following the US PPI last night. Uranium stocks surged following the coalition's announcement of plans to establish seven nuclear power plants across the country. PDN up 4.7% and DYL rising 2.8%.  Oil and gas stocks better with WDS up 0.5%. In corporate news, IFL was on the receiving end of a NBIO from Bain at 400c, up 6.2%. S32 fell 1.1% on WA extending the Worsley alumina project. SDF fell 0.5% on some insider trading charges and TCL fell 0.9% on an update on NSW government negotiations. Nothing on the economic front locally. Asian markets eased despite Chinese stimulus talk. Japan down 1.0%, HK down 1.7% and China down 1.5%. 10-year yields back to 4.3%.

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 US equities pulled back overnight as hotter-than-expected US PPI data weighed on market sentiment. The Dow ended near session lows, down 234 points (-0.53%). Up 60 points at best. Down 245 points at worst. The NASDAQ fell back below 20,000 as tech stocks pulled back ahead of the Federal Reserves policy meeting next week and the S&P 500 lost 0.54%. On the economic front, US producer prices rose 0.4% MoM in November, the largest gain in five months. Annual PPI inflation accelerated to 3% from 2.6%. Core PPI rose 0.2% MoM, matching forecasts, with the annual core rate steady at 3.4%. Initial jobless claims in the US jumped to 242k in early December, up 17k from the prior week and above forecasts of 220k, the highest since October. US treasury yields rose following fresh economic data which confirms that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps next week. USD index up 0.28%, Bitcoin off 1.18%, and the AUD is flat. 

SPI down 55 points - Bid for IFL - DGT first day of school.

• WTI down 0.45% pressured by a forecast for ample supply in the oil market by the IEA.
• Copper fell 0.97% due to a firming USD. Nickel and aluminium found buyers, up 2.05% and 0.12%, respectively. Zinc, lead and tin are all down over 1.5% each.
• Gold slid 1.28% on profit-taking after the yellow metal hit a five-week high.
• Iron ore rebounded, up 1.0%, while Dalian fell 1.10% as markets wait for further clues on policy easing from a key economic meeting in China.

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ASX 200 falls another 23 points to 8330 (0.3%) after a solid opening was derailed by the 3.9% headline unemployment number. RBA will be back in its box. Banks slid with ANZ still under some pressure, the Big Bank Basket up to $256.62(). Insurers slightly higher as 10-year yields jumped higher to 4.26%. Industrials mixed with retail down, tech up and ‘old skool’ platform stocks easing back, REA down 2.4% and CAR off 1.3%. REITs under some pressure on higher rates. Resources were flat, iron ore miners mixed, lithium stocks tried to rally as PLS CEO bought 500k shares. Gold miners were still in demand, although muted, oil and gas stocks fell slightly, BPT jumped 9.9% on a broker upgrade. Uranium stocks mixed, PDN up 0.7%. In corporate news, SYR was dumped 28.3% on a force majeure in Mozambique, IPH rose 4.0% on buy back initiated. SPK jumped 3.1% on data centre sale news. ORA fell 1.7% as it completed the sale of its US business, and OML fell 3.8% as it outlined cost-cutting plans. VNT and DOW slumped on ACCC allegations of price fixing. In economic news, jobs data was far stronger than the economists had forecast at 3.9% with 36500 new roles created. RBA now back to a serious delay. In Asian markets, a strong day, Japan up 1.0%, China up 0.6% and HK up 1.7%.

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The tech-heavy index rose 1.77% to end at 20,034.89 and post an all-time high and a closing record. The broad market S&P 500 gained 0.82% to close at 6,084.19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the outlier, falling 99.27 points, or 0.22%, to 44,148.56.

November's CPI was in line with expectations. The reading showed a 0.3% rise from October and 2.7% increase from a year ago. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 3.3% on an annual basis. Fed set to cut 25bps next week.

ASX SPI up 38  - Jobs number at 11.30am. Consensus +25k 4.1% headline rate - ORA sells US Business.

• WTI jumped 2.5% as EU sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet" threaten supply. Brent crude up 2.2%.
• OPEC lowered its 2024 oil demand growth forecast for the fifth consecutive month, citing weaker Chinese demand. Growth is now expected at 1.61m bpd (-210k bpd).
• Chile projects 2025 copper output at 5.4–5.6m tons and prices at $4.2–$4.5/lb.
• LME copper fell 0.28% after touching a one-month high, as a stronger US dollar offset optimism over China's potential monetary easing.
• Gold rose 0.91% after inflation matched expectations.

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ASX 200 falls another 39 points to 8354 (0.5%) as profit-taking in the market leaders continues. No resource bounce today to counter that. Banks slid with the Big Bank Basket down to $256.32 (-0.3%). MQG off 0.8% and insurers slipping lower. Much lower as yields continue to fall on the ‘turtle’ dovish tilt from the RBA yesterday. REITs help up with GMG better, Tech once again under the pump with the All-Tech Index down 0.8% and WTC and XRO off 3.0% and 1.4% respectively. Industrials also falling with BXB, SGH and ALL falling back to earth. Resources were mixed, BHP rose 0.4% but RIO and FMG eased back. Gold miners were mixed, GMD up 1.1% and WGX better again. S32 dropped hard down 4.4%, on Mozambique issues, PLS down 0.9% and MIN down 1.6%. Oil and gas fell with uranium finding some stability. Coal stocks better again. In corporate news, REX under fire from ASIC on $80m bailout issues. CTT had a $16.5m block trade, NAB sold the remainder of MLC to Nippon. VUL in a trading halt for a cap raising and SIG laid out the timetable for Chemist Warehouse merger. In economic news, we had National Accounts showing a nominal GDP rise of 0.4%. The terms of trade fell 2.5%. Asian markets becalmed ahead of US CPI. 10-year yields higher at 4.18%.

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US equities closed in the red overnight ahead of inflation data tomorrow. The Dow lost 154 points (-0.35%). Up 69 points at best. Down 215 points at worst. The S&P 500 pushed further away from recent all-time highs, down 0.30% and the NASDAQ eased 0.25%. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index jumped to 101.7 in November, its highest since June 2021. Small caps Russell 2000 ignored the positive economic data, falling 0.42% while the VIX edged 1.93% higher. US treasuries rose while Aussie bonds and the AUD fell hard, down nearly 1% at 68.78US cents.

US CPI tomorrow. SPI down 27 - AUD drops on Turtle Dovish RBA - Gold hits near record AUD highs.

• The EIA forecasts US net crude oil imports to drop 20% in 2025 to 1.9m bpd, the lowest since 1971, driven by increased domestic production and reduced refinery demand.
• WTI up 0.29% on rising demand from China after reports of “appropriately loose” monetary policy in 2025 and a possible tight supply in Europe this coming winter. Brent Crude up 0.10%.
• Gold up 1.24% hitting a two-week high, supported by rising geopolitical tensions.
• Codelco reported flat copper production of 127,900 tons in October, matching last year, while Escondida's output surged over 20%, per Cochilco data.
• LME Copper dipped 0.16%, pressured by a slowdown in China’s export growth. While nickel dropped 1.19% from an oversupply in the market.
• Uranium fell 0.26%, iron ore down too, off 0.14%, and lithium rose 0.20%.

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ASX 200 slipped 30 points to 8393 (-0.4%) as investors switched from the high flyers to resources following the news yesterday from China. Banks saw selling pressure with CBA down 1.1% and NAB sliding 2.8% with the Big Bank Basket down to $256.99  (-1.5%). MQG off 1.9% with insurers under pressure too. High-flying platform stocks also in sell-down mode, with HUB and NWL down. REITs under pressure, GMG off 2.2% and SCG down 1.7%. Tech too in the seller’s sights, WTC off 4.4% and XRO falling 4.4%. The All-Tech Index dropped 3.55%. REA took a tumble as did CAR and SEK. In media stocks, NWS saw Murdoch senior thwarted in a Nevada court. Industrials and retail slipped slightly.  Resources saw strong buying across the board, though gains moderated from intraday highs. BHP up 3.1% and FMG rallying 6.2% with PLS bouncing hard together with MIN. Gold miners back in demand, GMD hitting 52-week highs. NEM up 2.4% and EVN up 5.0%. Even oil and gas stocks rose, KAR up 5.3% with uranium in-demand, PDN up 2.0%, and WHC doing well too, up 3.5%. In corporate news, PPT dropped 8.4% on an ATO issue that could see the Barbarians at the gate slam it shut. IAG fell after being hit with a class action in Victoria. In economic news, the RBA kept rates unchanged, but we saw a slight softening of language. Hikes seem to be off the table now. Asian markets rose on stimulus optimism, with China up 1.6%, HK up 1.0% and Japan up 0.4%. 10-year yields falling to 4.15%.

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back from record highs Monday, with tech shares struggling and investors looking ahead to key inflation data due out this week. The broad market index fell 0.61% to close at 6,052.85, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.62% to end at 19,736.69. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 240.59 points, or 0.54%, settling at 44,401.93.

The November CPI due out Wednesday, is expected to show a slight uptick in pricing pressures. Economists expect a rise of 0.3% and 2.7% on a monthly and annual basis, respectively. That would be up from respective increases of 0.2% and 2.6% in the prior month.

ASX SPI up 3 - RBA later - Eyes on Resources after China talks its whatever it takes moment.

Gold and oil rise.

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