Wall Street closed lower overnight, ending near worst levels. Indices were weighed down by tech stocks and weak demand in treasury auctions, triggering choppy trading. The Dow fell 234 points (-0.80%). Up 480 points at best. Down 266 points at worst. Treasuries came under pressure after 17 blue-chip stocks offered $31.8bn in debt. Spreads between high-grade corporate bonds and US treasuries jumped to 112bps, its highest level since December 2023. The S&P 500 (-0.77%) and NASDAQ (-1.05%) rose in early trade, driven by the BoJ's dovish signals before falling after a weak 10Y US bond auction dampened sentiment. No Fed speak overnight. Markets are now waiting for initial claims data tomorrow, with options markets pricing in a 1.2% move in equities following the report. The probability for a 50bps rate cut in September at 72%, up from 11.8% just one week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Recession chatter has tempered off a little, though JPMorgan economists now see a 35% chance that the US economy will tip into a recession by the end of this year.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 33 points (-0.43%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil settles 2% higher on falling US crude stockpiles, rebounds from multi-month lows.
• Copper prices drop on jump in inventories, weak Chinese data.
• Gold buoyed by Fed rate-cut hopes, geopolitical concerns.
• Iron ore extends fall on China demand concern, high supply.
• BHP mulling sale of gold, copper mines in Brazil.
• Glencore to keep coal assets and stick with London listing.
• US crude inventories fall, fuel builds as demand weakens, EIA says.

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ASX 200 bounces 19 points to 7700 (+0.3%) as risks start to recede. Soothing words from a BoJ Deputy helped things along.  Banks struggled or we would have been higher. ANZ up 0.2% on a broker upgrade, the Big Bank Basket slid to $217.06 (-0.4%). Insurers did better, and market stocks like GQG also did well. A FUM update from this one helped too. Healthcare better, led by CSL up 0.7% and SHL up 0.4%. REITs rebounded too, GMG leading the charge, up 0.7% and GPT up 3.4%. Industrials firm, TLS up 1.3% and WES bouncing 0.7% with tech better too. WTC up 0.5% with the All-Tech Index up 0.68%. Mixed session for resources, the 'Three Amigos', BHP, RIO and FMG, eased but lithium plays saw buyers. PLS saw some short covering together with buyers for MIN and S32. Oil and gas major WDS better on positive broker commentary after its ammonia buy. Uranium stocks also bounced from oversold levels, DYL up 1.0% and PDN up 1.2%. In corporate news, LTM is up 7.5% on its update and strategy review. WGX began trade as a dual-listed company following its Canadian merger. In economic news, China announced a better-than-expected import number as it appears to be restocking before US chip bans; Asian markets rallied, with Japan up another 2.3%, and HK up 1.7%, with China +0.4. 10-year yields around 4.08%. Dow Futures up 222 points. NASDAQ Futures up 154 points.

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ASX to slip. SPI Futures down 19 points (-0.25%).

US equities snapped a three-day wild rout as investors piled back into the market following recent comments by Fed officials easing US recession concerns. The S&P 500 rose 1.04%, with all major sectors finishing the green, supported by bargain hunters after the index fell into “oversold” territory. The NASDAQ advanced 1.03%, supported by gains in the Nvidia up 3.8%. The Dow Jones ended 294 points higher (+0.76%), paring earlier gains in late afternoon trade. Up 746 points at best. Down 65 points at worst. Small caps Russell 2000 gained 1.23%, and the VIX saw its biggest daily fall since 2010, down 28.16%. US treasury yields jumped as fears of a US recession were seen as overdone. 10Y yield up 12.2bps and 2Y yield up 9bps. In Fed speak, fed officials pushed back against hard landing and recession concerns. Fed’s Daly said the US economy is not falling off a cliff and pointed to the Jobs numbers that included higher numbers of temporary layoffs and supply increases. In Asia, Japan’s TOPIX rebounded 9.3%. Japanese officials trying to calm markets, with the prime minister urging calm while highlighting coordination between the government and the BoJ.

COMMODITIES

• Oil prices settle higher; signs of tighter supply end 3-day swoon.
• Gold eases as dollar, yields firm; Fed rate cut hopes lend support.
• Copper recovers, but investors wary about economy, China.
• Aramco profit dips 3%, keeps $31.1bn dividend unchanged.
• EIA sees tighter US oil market for 2024, lowers price outlook.

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ASX 200 bounces 31 points to 7681 (+0.4%) as Japan rebounds strongly. RBA left rates unchanged as expected. Bank bounced hard, with the Big Bank Basket up to $217.86 (+1.4). Other financials were mixed, MQG gained 1.3%, but NWL fell 0.4%. REITs bounced hard too, GMG up 2.2%, with SGP putting on 0.9%. Industrials firmed, TCL up 0.2%, and WES rallying hard up 2.3%, with tech slightly less enthusiastic. QAN added 1.6%, with retailers also back in demand. JBH up 1.8%, and LOV up 3.1%. Resources were dormant, BHP up 0.4% and RIO down 0.3%, Gold Miners sagged as bullion fell, NST unchanged, going against the trend, NEM down 3.4% and EVN down 1.3%. Diggers and Dealers continues in WA. Uranium stocks rose slightly, and lithium remains slightly depressed. In the oil and gas space, WDS fell 5.1% on another US acquisition. STO better with a 1.5% gain. On the corporate front, AD8 collapsed 36.3% on a weak result and guidance update, TWE rose 1.0% as it moved to focus on premium brands. On the economic front, the RBA head rates unchanged with a hawkish tinge. Higher for longer would seem the mantra. Meanwhile, in Asia, a significant bounce back, Japan up 9.3%, China slightly weaker again and HK down 0.2%. European futures showing a small bounce. FTSE up 1%. France is at the Olympics. Dow Futures up 367 points and NASDAQ Futures up 315 points. 


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Wall Street finished deep in the red overnight, hit with a renewed bout of volatility on talks about a US economic recession and a wave of institutions unwinding popular carry trades in Japan. The S&P 500 plunged 3%, its worst daily fall in about two years, down ~8.5% from its peak. The NASDAQ plummeted 3.43%, and the Dow lost 1,034 points (2.60%). Down 1,238 points at worst. Small caps Russell 2000 fell 3.33%, and Wall Street's "fear gauge", the VIX, surged 64.90%. At one point, it registered its largest daily spike since 1990. Japan's TOPIX fell 12%, recording its biggest three-day fall stretching as far back as 1959 as institutions rushed to unwind their carry forward trades (See Marcus Take for in-depth analysis). In Fed Speak, Chicago President Goolsbee attempted to downplay recession fears, stating that the Fed does not react to one month's numbers on jobs and can wait for more data before the September meeting. Meanwhile, the probability of a September rate cut now sitting at 83%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The gap between 10Y and 2Y yields briefly turned positive for the first time since July 2022 before later inverting, with the 2Y now ~12bps above the 10Y yield. USD Index slid 0.46%, and bitcoin tumbled 7.15%.

ASX to fall. SPI Futures down 27 points (-0.36%).

COMMODITIES

• Oil falls as global equities selloff offsets rising Middle East tensions.
• Gold slips over 1% as wider market rout spills over.
• Global growth angst pushes copper to 4-1/2-month low.
• BHP requests state mediation with Escondida union in Chile.
• Glencore to pay $152mn to resolve Swiss bribery investigation.

 ASX 200 fell a huge 294 points or 3.7% today to 7650 as banks came under serious pressure. Financials across the region were aggressively sold off from MQG to Mitsubishi. The Big Four were torched, and the Basket dropped to $214.81 (-5%). CBA falling 5.7%. Insurers too sold down aggressively, QBE down 5.0% and SUN off 5.8%. REITs were also sold off despite yields remaining relatively steady. GMG down 7.1% as a tech stock, GPT off 2.6% and SGP down 3.5%. Industrials also in the seller’s sights, WES down 3.4% with WOW and COL off 2.9% and 1.2% respectively. REH down 4.7% and BXB falling 4.3%. QAN dipped 4.9% amidst a shake-up of airport slots. Tech wrecked, WTC off 8.8% and XRO falling 5.6% with the All-Tech Index down 6.1%. Resources outperformed, BHP down only 2.1% with RIO hardly changed, FMG down 1.9%. Gold miners eased despite bullion holding steady, EVN down 2.0% and GMD off 1.9% with NEM off 2.0%. Uranium fallout continues and lithium stocks mixed. PLS lower by 1.1%. Oil and gas down, WDS off 3.6% on WA environmental issues, STO fell 5.0%. In corporate news, ARG reported profits down on last year, falling 2.0%. RHC downgraded guidance to 265-270m, falling 0.3%. Nothing locally on the economic front, RBA tomorrow. No rate rise expected. Asia markets in all sorts, Japan had to have trading suspended due to the heavy falls especially in the financials. China modestly lower in comparison. 

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The sell-off on Wall Street continued for a second consecutive session overnight. Weak jobs data fuelled worries that the Fed's decision to hold rates at two-decade highs is risking a hard landing/recession. Market fears have triggered a surge in volatility seeing the VIX jump to 23.39 (+25.8%), its highest since March 2023. The S&P 500 recorded its worst reaction to jobs data in almost two years, falling 1.84%. The NASDAQ plummeted 2.43% and confirmed it was in correction territory. The Dow traded lower all session, losing 611 points (-1.51%). Down 989 points at worst. The Russell 2000 slumped 3.52%, falling to a three-week low and saw its largest two-day fall since June 2022. Non-farm payrolls rose by 114k in July, significantly below expectations of 175k, marking one of the weakest prints since the pandemic. US Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose for a fourth month to 4.3%, a near three-year high. Treasury yields took a nosedive overnight after jobs numbers showed the US created fewer jobs than expected, supporting bets for more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed this year. 10Y yield dropped 18.8bps and the 2Y yield fell 28.5bps. USD Index fell to a four-month low, down 1.14%. Bets for a 50bps cut by the fed at a September meeting have jumped to 69%, according to CME FedWatch.

ASX set to tumble another 115 points (-1.46%) according to SPI futures.

COMMODITIES

• Exxon delivers $9.2bn Q2 profit, raises output target.
• Chevron earnings slide, Hess merger arbitration drags on.
• Chilean court rejects Tianqi's request to pause SQM-Codelco deal.
• Copper firms on potential US rate cuts after jobs data.
• Oil settles at 8-month low after disappointing US job numbers.
• OPEC oil output rises in July on Saudi rebound, survey finds
• Gold retreats on profit-taking and logs weekly gain.

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ASX 200 drops 172 points in the worst one-day fall in 16 months, to 7938 (-2.1%). For the week, we are relatively unchanged. All that record-breaking rally was undone. Big hits across the board as US markets led us lower and Japan in trouble. Banks were sold off aggressively, with CBA leading the sell off down 2.8% as ANZ fell only 1.8%, outperforming.  MQG off 2.2% on news of a $1bn hybrid issue, compounding weakness. Insurers too in negative territory as yields fell. REITs too saw sellers as GMG reversed some gains from yesterday to close down 5.1%. Healthcare saw some pressure. CSL dropped 1.6%, with RMD results out this morning proving a short-term positive at least for a while, until a slight rethink and the stock closed down 1.8%. Industrials were also under pressure. WES fell 2.9% with QAN crash landing 4.1% as retail slipped lower too. LOV down 4.6% and JBH off 3.0% on a broker downgrade too. In the miners, it was a train wreck for uranium stocks, the fallout from the NXG capex increase, plus news from Kazatomprom, put a knife into the sector. It was not a great day, SLX caught the bug down 8.5%, DYL fell 19.2% and PDN off 10.8%. Big iron ore miners fared relatively better, with BHP down only 1.2% and RIO off 0.8%. Lithium stocks depressed, and the short sellers in PLS celebrated with a 6.5% drop. Oil and gas stocks are lower too. In corporate news, SQ2 put out a solid update with a BNPL boost from Afterpay, three years this week since the deal. On the economic front, nothing locally with US payrolls tonight. Asian markets poleaxed with Japan falling the most since 2020, down 5.2%, HK off 2.4%, and China down a more modest 0.8%. 10-year yields rising slightly to 4.08%.

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US equities kicked off August sharply lower as the market whipsawed to risk-off just a day after the S&P 500 and NASDAQ recorded their best daily performance since February on Wednesday. The Dow ended 495 points lower (-1.21%). Up 254 points at best. Down 744 points at worst. The S&P 500 lost 1.37%, just one day after rallying 1.6%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ dropped 2.30%. Russell 2000 slumped 3.03%, its biggest daily loss since February, and Wall Street's fear index, the VIX, briefly traded above 19 before easing to 18.59 (+13.63%). Economic data overnight has spurred concerns that the US economy is slowing faster than expected. Early gains in the market evaporated after the US ISM Manufacturing PMI showed a larger-than-expected contraction, falling to 46.6 in July, its 20th decline in activity over the last 21 months. Cracks in the labour market also began to emerge, with Initial Jobless claims rising to an 11-month high, climbing 14k to 249k, exceeding expectations of 236k. Treasury yields tumbled on soft economic data, the 10Y and 2Y yields have fallen to six-month lows, with the 10Y yield now under 4%. USD edged higher as rising geopolitical concerns in the Middle East drove a safe haven boost, while the British pound fell after the BoE cut interest rates from a 16-year high.

ASX set to tumble. SPI Futures down 144 points (-1.78%)
COMMODITIES

• Copper falls on soft Chinese factory data, higher inventories.
• Gold withdraws from two-week high as focus shifts to US payrolls data.
• Oil slips over $1 as supply intact despite Middle East conflict fear.
• Iron ore rises to more than 1-week high on upbeat demand outlook, China stimulus hopes.
• Shell beats forecasts with $6.3bn second quarter profit.
• Japan's Nippon Steel raises FY profit forecast after Q1 beat.
• OPEC+ sticks to oil policy, repeats could pause Oct hike.

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ASX 200 rallies only 22 points to 8115 (+0.3%) as good times roll. Record high. A slight sell-off in the banks with a tentative rotation to resources. BHP up 0.5% and RIO doing much better up 1.9%. FMG underwhelmed, although up another 0.6%. Gold miners better but still no real frenzy, NST up 0.9% and NEM up 2.0%. Uranium and lithium tried to rally but it was muted. PDN up a modest 2.2%. PLS up 4.4% as Albemarle announced closures to Australian production. Oil and gas slightly firmer, WDS up 1.5% and KAR doing well, up 3.8%. Banks slid a little. CBA down 0.9% and ANZ up 0.7%, as some catch-up required! MQG rose 0.7%, with insurers under a little pressure as 10Y yields fell to 4.08%. REITs racing ahead, GMG up 3.8% and GPT up 0.7%. Tech better, WTC up 1.4% and XRO pushing 1.5% ahead. Staples doing well, WOW up 1.0%, with ALL up 0.2%.  In corporate news, PSQ got a knockout bid at 205c, BVS rose 2.2% on a return of capital and DRO returned to trade, promptly falling to close to the issue price, down 14.8%. On the economic front, Balance of Payments came in below expectations, increasing $537m in June. Asian markets are weaker despite US futures firming. Japan down 3.2%, China flat and HK +0.2%. Dow Futures up 0.2% and NASDAQ Futures up 0.7%. 

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