Market Updates

ASX 200 recovered from a cautious start to close up 15 points to 8300 (+0.2%) as iron ore futures kicked back above $100. BHP up 0.7% and RIO rallying 2.2%. Resources generally were solid as uranium stocks glowed hot after moves by Russia to limit exports. PDN rose 5.5% DYL up 7.0% and BOE up 7.3%. Gold too rallied with NST up 2.5% and EVN rallying 2.6% on better commodity prices and Chinese stimulus hopes. MIN a standout up 5.8% with PLS dragging the chain in the lithium space down 2.2%. Oil and gas slightly firmer, WDS up 0.4% and coal doing well, WHC up 3.3% with NHC also 2.3% better. Banks were mixed, news on NAB being sued by ASIC and leaks over a regional levy didn’t help. CBA down 1.4% and NAB off 0.2% with the Big Bank Basket $257.88 (-0.8%). Insurers and financials were better again, MQG up 0.2% and SQ2 rising 1.9%. REITS mostly better, and industrials firmed. WES up 0.4% and ALL up 0.5%. Retailers a little subdued with LOV down 3.8% on a broker downgrade on store openings and CTD rising 2.3% on Conference pick. Healthcare was an interesting space with CSL down again as RFK Jnr appointment to US Department of Health would be sub optimal. Not a great lover of vaccines and looking to rip costs out of the system. Other biotechs feeling some pain as well. In corporate news, 360 fell 6.7% as the founder offloaded a parcel. NHC provided an upbeat guidance, CUV bounced 2.2% on a shift in business focus. RSG fell 5.6% after announcing a sort of settlement with the Mali government. ELD launched a rights issue and an acquisition, coupled with disappointing numbers. Nothing on the economic front, Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025, due to “negative spillovers” from the incoming Trump term. Asian markets mixed, Japan down 0.7%, HK up 0.9% and China rallying 1%. 10-year yields 4.60%.

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US equities sank Friday closing out the worst week in more than two months following Powell's announcement on Thursday stating the Fed wasn’t in a rush to cut rates. The Dow traded lower all session, falling 306 points (-0.70%). Down 400 points at worst. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ booked their biggest one-day loss in two weeks, falling 1.32% and 2.24% respectively. Small caps too were sold off, with Russell 2000 down 1.42% notching its fourth consecutive session of losses, while the VIX, better known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped 14.09% hitting its highest levels since election day last week. For the week Dow -1.24%, S&P 500 -2.08%, and NASDAQ -3.15%. In economics, US retail sales rose 0.4% MonM in Oct-24, coming in higher than expectations of 0.3%. Stocks in pharmaceuticals and packaged food companies came under selling pressure with Moderna dropping 7.34% Pfizer down 4.69%, Monster Beverage off 7.08% and Keurig Dr Pepper losing 5.15%% after Trump said he would nominate Robert F Kennedy Jr to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Bitcoin jumped 4.85%, the USD Index continues to climb, Aussie dollar flat, and US treasuries pared earlier gains.

ASX SPI down 26  - ELD Reports - Bank Levy for some - 360 Founder sells down

• Gold -0.24, falling 1.74% for the week as expectations of a less aggressive rate cut by the Fed lifted the USD denting bullion demand.
• Aluminium rallied 5.54% after China announced it would cancel export tax rebates fuelling concerns that shipments abroad may be reduced.
• Copper gained 0.20% after hitting a three-month low yesterday.
• Base metals closed mixed. Nickel -0.74%, zinc +0.24%, lead -0.20%, and tin -0.97%.
• Uranium performed well, jumping 4.29% after Russia imposed restrictions on exporting to the US, creating supply risks for US nuclear power plants.   
• Iron ore slumped 1.17% to its lowest level in nearly two months, weighed down by weakness in China’s property market and reduced seasonal steel demand.

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The ASX 200 has finished the week on a strong note, up 61 points or +0.7%. Down slightly for the week overall. All major eleven sectors finished in the green except for Healthcare after CSL and RMD both lost ground. Down 2.5% and 1.7%.  Utilities were unusually the best-performing sector. ORG, APA and AGL all up around 2.4%. APA reaffirmed guidance, receiving broker upgrades on less regulation concerns. Resources took a small break from selling.

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US equities closed in the red overnight near session lows following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell dampening market hopes for another rate cut this year. The Dow lost 207 points (-0.47%). Up 123 points at best. Down 253 points at worst. The S&P 500 dropped 0.60% and the NASDAQ eased 0.64%. Powell notably said “The economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates” reiterating Fedspeak earlier this week calling for patience.

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The ASX 200 has finished the day up 31 points or 0.4%. Giving up morning gains as Asian markets drifted lower before a late rally set in. Employment numbers did little to move the dial (held at 4.1% with 16k new jobs added). Banks bounced back from yesterday’s weakness while Resources continued to languish on no news from China. The big four gained between 1% and 2.2% while resources and the iron ore giants finished mostly lower.

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The S&P 500 inched higher by 0.02% to close at 5,985.38, while the 30-stock Dow ticked up 47.21 points, or 0.11%, to 43,958.19. The blue-chip index added as much as 230 points earlier on Wednesday. The Nasdaq Composite ended the day with a 0.26% decline and closed at 19,230.74. 

ASX SPI up 29 - AGMs in Focus

• WTI advanced 0.48% on short covering a day after hitting a two-week low on OPEC’s reduced demand forecast. Brent Crude +0.04%.
• The US EIA raised its us global oil production forecasts expecting oil demand to grow about 1m bpd in 2024, up from 900k bpd.
• Copper down 1.08% hitting a two-month low and has dropped ~7% since last week's US presidential election.
• Base metals were mostly lower as the USD continued to rise, zinc the exception up 1.21%. Nickel -0.91%, aluminium -1.19%, lead -1.04%, and tin -1.92%.
• Iron ore up 0.05% following a narrow trading session as markets weighed hopes of further stimulus support for China’s property market amid weaker credit lending data.
• Gold lost 0.88% extending its losing streak to four consecutive sessions. Weighed down by a stronger dollar and higher long dated bond yields.

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ASX 200 recovered to close down only 62 points at 8193 (0.8%). Banks were under pressure with ANZ ex dividend down 4.0% with CBA down 0.4% and NAB off 1.3%. MQG dropped 1.4% with other financials easier. SWF jumped on news BFG has made an 22c offer. Insurers mixed, REITS saw seller back with SGP down 0.8% and SCG off 0.9%. Industrials eased back, WOW down 0.9% and WES falling 1.0%. TCL dropped 2.9% as ALL rose 2.6% on better earnings, retail gave back some of yesterday’s gains. JBH down 0.1% and HVN off 0.7%. Healthcare eased back, RMD off 1.4% and SHL down 0.9%. Resources continue to be battered by the rampant USD. BHP down 0.9% and RIO off 3.3%. FMG managed a small bounce, up 0.8%. Lithium stocks down again, MIN shutting Bald Hill and a class action launched fell 7.2%, LYC down 1.9% with gold miners slipping but no huge sell off. DEG up 0.7% and EVN off 1.3%. Uranium stocks bounced. PDN up 8.6% after the crater yesterday, BOE up 2.0% and oil and gas slid. WDS off 0.7%. In corporate news, JHX jumped 6.2% on earnings beating expectations. NXL dropped 22.2% on an underwhelming update, 360 down 7.4% on missed expectations, and SGR saw short seller covering on sale of PPT stake. In economic news, public sector wages increased faster than private sector pay for the first time in four years in September. Asian markets slightly weaker, Japan down 1.2%, China flat and HK down 0.6%. 10-year yields up to 4.67%. Dow Futures down 70 Nasdaq down 60.

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 US equities took a breather overnight as treasury yields kicked higher, the USD hit a two-year high, and profit-taking following the post-election rally pressured markets lower. The Dow closed near session lows, off 382 points (0.86%). Up 113 points at best. Down 406 points at worst. The S&P 500 ended its biggest five-day rally in a year, finishing 0.29% lower and the NASDAQ edged 0.09% lower with Tesla losing 6.1% after an almost 45% rally. Small caps lost ground, with the Russell 2000 slipping 1.77% after closing at a three-year high on Monday. Treasury yields jumped overnight, the 2Y yield rose 8.8bps its largest one-day rise since early October, and the 10Y yield gained 11.7bps. Bitcoin approaches $90k level, up 1.82% and the Aussie dollar fell 0.64%. In Fed speak, Kashkari said monetary policy is “modestly restrictive” with borrowing costs slowing inflation and the economy but not by a lot. Barkin notes that the Fed funds rate is out of sync with the economic backdrop and needs recalibration.

ASX SPI Down 81 - CBA comes in at 1Q $2.5bn in line.

COMMODITIES

• US oil industry urges Trump to ditch Biden climate policies.
• Oil prices hold near 2-week low after OPEC cuts demand view, dollar rises.
• Copper slides to two-month low on disquiet over Trump and China.
• OPEC again cuts 2024, 2025 oil demand growth forecasts.

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ASX 200 dropped another 11 points to 8256 (-0.1%) as the bifurcation between banks and resources continued. Resources again on the nose, BHP off 1.8% and RIO falling 1.6% with FMG holding up after yesterday’s drubbing. Gold miners also saw across the board selling as hot money left bullion and chased bitcoin towards US$90k. EVN down 3.5% with NEM off 4.6% and GMD down 1.3%. Lithium stocks perked up a little, PLS up 5.7% with MIN better by 1.9% too. Uranium was not a happy place as PDN announced production issues plaguing Langer Heinrich, the stock dropped 28.9%. Oil and gas steady. Banks were a little mixed, NAB ex-dividend today with ANZ up 1.3% ahead of its XD tomorrow. Insurers better, QBE up 0.4% and IAG up 1.3% with financial generally doing well. REITs better too, SGP +1.0%.  Industrials also firmed with tech in demand, WTC up 1.8% and XRO up another 1.0%. The All-Tech Index rose 1.8%. Retail better too, JBH up 2.4% and SUL up 2.5%. In corporate news, ALL sold a US mobile gaming business, VUL announced funding from the German government up 12.7%,  PTM saw a second strike and have allowed Wilsons in the data room. On the economic front, consumer sentiment has risen as inflation has fallen. Asian markets mixed as usual, with China down 0.1%, HK down 1.7% and Japan down 0.2%. 10Y yields steady around 4.56%. Dow Futures down 58 points. NASDAQ Futures flat.

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ASX 200 dropped another 11 points to 8256 (-0.1%) as the bifurcation between banks and resources continued. Resources again on the nose, BHP off 1.8% and RIO falling 1.6% with FMG holding up after yesterday’s drubbing. Gold miners also saw across the board selling as hot money left bullion and chased bitcoin towards US$90k. EVN down 3.5% with NEM off 4.6% and GMD down 1.3%. Lithium stocks perked up a little, PLS up 5.7% with MIN better by 1.9% too. Uranium was not a happy place as PDN announced production issues plaguing Langer Heinrich, the stock dropped 28.9%. Oil and gas steady. Banks were a little mixed, NAB ex-dividend today with ANZ up 1.3% ahead of its XD tomorrow. Insurers better, QBE up 0.4% and IAG up 1.3% with financial generally doing well. REITs better too, SGP +1.0%.  Industrials also firmed with tech in demand, WTC up 1.8% and XRO up another 1.0%. The All-Tech Index rose 1.8%. Retail better too, JBH up 2.4% and SUL up 2.5%. In corporate news, ALL sold a US mobile gaming business, VUL announced funding from the German government up 12.7%,  PTM saw a second strike and have allowed Wilsons in the data room. On the economic front, consumer sentiment has risen as inflation has fallen. Asian markets mixed as usual, with China down 0.1%, HK down 1.7% and Japan down 0.2%. 10Y yields steady around 4.56%. Dow Futures down 58 points. NASDAQ Futures flat.

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