Joe Quinlan, MD and Chief Market Strategist at US Trust-Bank of America Private Wealth Management in New York, discusses the following questions:
- The westwards flow of money continues: U.S. equity funds saw a record inflow of $40.3 billion in July, as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average scale new heights. Earnings valuations and / or "Invincible summer" aside, do you expect more inflows into equity markets?
- Bloomberg reported that US private equity players are saying now is the time to exit investments as stocks rally and interest rates start to riseFortress’ principal Pete Briger, was quoted as saying, “this is a better time for selling our existing investments than making new investments"Where could the next play be?
- Jezz Bezos' $250million purchase of Washington Post
- There is a view that the Eurozone could be the next destination for QE-type hot money flow, with its economies recovering. Markit's Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicates growth for the first time since January 2012. Do you buy into this theme?
- If so where do the best returns lie? Equities? Debt? Currencies? Specifics?
- Despite Bernanke's statements to address the slide in 10-Yr US Treasury yields, there is a view that the long-term trend continues to be bearish, as more hot money returns Stateside. This could have huge implications for the rest of the world, not to mention the potential threat to the US housing market, which is key What's the next move for Bernanke?
- Suggestions that Beijing may relax its one-child policy by the end of 2013 could have significant ramifications, such as on its working age population, which has already peaked, or a rebalancing of the economy towards a more consumption-driven model. But there are downsides too, such as a potential decline in the savings rate, which may weigh on investment growth. Do you have a view on this nascent development?
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