Michael McCarthy, Chief Market Strategist at CMC Markets, Sydney says Australia Federal Government faces a difficult situation over the proposed carbon tax: though there is broad electoral support for climate change, govt is caught between this and difficulties of nuts and bolts of agreement. Carbon tax start date slated for July 2012. Markets are asking who will it apply to; at the moment, focus is on electricity generation and coal mining business. Agriculture sector supplies 40% of carbon emissions, unclear how it'll be included yet.
Voters also have hip pocket considerations to think about - job loss, increased costs, and Aussie has a hung parliament which makes it difficult to push something like this through.Hence, final deal is difficult to forecast.
McCarthy has a less optimistic view on Aussie shares, and expects range trading market for the next nine months on the back of metal and oil strength. ASX 200 to reach 5,250 at year end. Again, difficult call due to macro factors.
Though tough call on the Shanghai index, should have strong upward trend on back of company profit figures. Should push through key psychological resistance level soon. China government's main concern is excess growth.
Looking at US consumer confidence levels, US Fed Reserve has been doing most of the heavy lifting ie stimulating monetary sytem. Wouldn't be surprised by minor fiscal stimulus programmes in terms of job creation.
Though recent numbers were not good, key indicators of US economy's health would be employment numbers and housing market. Latter causing concern globally. Until unemployment falls rapidly, and signs of improvement in housing market, would focus on those measures in response to the current situation.
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