Tom Bodrovics hosts Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis (MSA) and Vince Lanci, author of the Goldfix Substack, to discuss the dynamics of the silver market from short, medium, and long-term perspectives. Michael Oliver, a technical analyst, provided insights based on historical price patterns and momentum indicators, while Vince Lanci offered a trader’s perspective, focusing on market sentiment and physical demand. Oliver highlighted that silver has been confined to a narrow price range for decades, similar to other commodities like copper and lead. He argued that the recent breakout above $50 suggests a potential for a significant upward move, possibly reaching $500 or more, based on historical ratios. He cited past instances where commodities like copper and lead experienced dramatic price increases after breaking out of long-term ranges. Oliver also discussed the significance of the silver-to-S&P 500 ratio, which has recently broken out of an 11-year base, indicating a strong bullish signal.

Some Competent Links:
Website: https://competentinvestor.com
Substack: https://competentmanpod.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/CompetentManPod
Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/c-7699939

Lanci, on the other hand, emphasized the role of physical demand and the decoupling of traditional financial correlations. He noted that the recent rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which includes silver, is a known event and unlikely to significantly impact the silver price in the short term. Lanci also discussed the potential for a shift in asset allocation from tech stocks to precious metals, driven by concerns over inflation and debt.

The conversation also touches on the broader economic landscape, including the potential for a severe recession and the impact on precious metals. Oliver and Lanci agreed that a stock market collapse could lead to a significant shift in asset allocation, benefiting gold and silver. They also discussed the potential for institutional adoption of precious metals as a store of value, driven by a loss of trust in fiat currencies. In conclusion, both experts expressed bullish views on silver, with Oliver predicting a potential move to $500 or more in the coming months, and Lanci highlighting the role of physical demand and the potential for a shift in asset allocation. They also agreed that the broader economic landscape, including the potential for a recession, could further support the price of precious metals.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:57 – Short-Term Silver Pressures
00:05:05 – Long-Term Silver Perspective
00:10:29 – Spread Chart Breakouts
00:14:25 – Disciplines Synergy Discussion
00:14:57 – Breaking Financial Correlations
00:19:29 – Government Tolerance Policies
00:20:53 – Capital Rotation Scenarios
00:23:18 – Dollar and Bond Weakness
00:38:13 – Recession Bubble Warnings
00:42:44 – Commercial Real Estate Risks
00:46:42 – Institutional Metal Adoption
00:51:32 – Oil Market Outlook
01:01:00 – Concluding Thoughts

Michael Oliver Guest Links:
Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/
X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA
Email: mailto:[email protected]

J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis.

Vince Lanci Guest Links:
Substack: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/
X: https://x.com/Sorenthek
Zerohedge: https://tinyurl.com/3x72ndfc

Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development.

In recent years, Mr. Lanci’s insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict’s Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut.