Midrats

What can be done to reform The Pentagon?

Returning to Midrats to discuss the challenge of real reform to our military bureaucratic establishment will be Steve Deal.

Steve Deal, Captain, U.S. Navy (Ret.) served as Deputy Chief of Staff to the Secretary of the Navy and Deputy Chief Learning Officer for the Department of the Navy.  During his twenty-seven years on active duty, he commanded Patrol Squadron Forty-Seven, in Ali Air Base, Iraq; Joint Provincial Reconstruction Team Khost, Afghanistan; and Patrol and Reconnaissance Wing Ten in Whidbey Island, Washington. 

Showlink

• Transforming to Innovate for National Security

Summary

In this conversation, Sal and Steve Deal discuss the pressing need for reform within the Pentagon, emphasizing the importance of political will, leadership, and human capital in driving change. They explore historical contexts, the challenges posed by bureaucracy, and the necessity of engaging the public in national security discussions. The dialogue highlights the critical role of education and talent management in the military, as well as the need for accountability and innovative thinking to overcome systemic inertia.

Takeaways

• Political will is essential for true change in the Pentagon.
• The inertia of bureaucracy often prevents necessary reforms.
• Human capital is a critical component of national security.
• Leadership must be ruthless to drive real change.
• Engaging the public is vital for national security discussions.
• Education and talent management are key to military transformation.
• Tacit collusion can hinder innovation within the defense sector.
• A new Goldwater Nichols is needed for future reforms.
• We must challenge existing assumptions about military recruitment.
• The role of people in defense innovation cannot be overlooked.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Overview of Pentagon Reform
03:06: Political Will and Historical Context for Change
06:43: The Role of People in Defense Innovation
10:51: Challenges of Human Capital in the Military
14:26: Need for Holistic Change in Defense Structure
18:08: The Inertia of Bureaucracy and Resistance to Change
22:51: Leadership and Accountability in National Security
26:33: Education and Talent Management in the Navy
30:40: The Importance of Engaging the Public
34:46: Consulting and Internal Change Agents
39:51: Tacit Collusion and the Need for Accountability
43:54: The Future of Defense Strategy and Leadership
48:44: Closing Thoughts and Future Directions

For the last 23 years, the major powers outside the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have been engaged in a series of imperial police actions like in Afghanistan, small wars turning into inextricable problems, like Iraq, and not-insignificant medium sized wars as we see in Ukraine.The PRC chose to stay out of these conflicts, but has been learning from them.After studying 20th-century Pacific war lessons deeply and, though untested in combat since 1979, the PRC is preparing for something.Dr. Toshi Yoshihara returned to Midrats to discuss what the PRC has studied most and how its study is manifesting in policy and action.You can listen from this link, or the Spotify widget below.Remember, is you don’t already, subscribe to the podcast.Toshi is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He was previously the inaugural John A. van Beuren Chair of Asia-Pacific Studies and a Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.  Dr. Yoshihara’s latest book is Mao’s Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy (Georgetown University Press, 2022). A Japanese translation of Mao’s Army Goes to Sea was published in 2023. He co-authored, with James R. Holmes, the second edition of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to U.S. Maritime Strategy (Naval Institute Press, 2018). The book has been listed on the Chief of Naval Operations Professional Reading Program, the Indo-Pacific Command Professional Development Reading List, and the Commandant of the Marine Corps Professional Reading Program.Dr. Yoshihara is the recipient of the 8th annual Kokkiken Japan Study Award by the Japan Institute for National Fundamentals in July 2021 for his CSBA study, "Dragon Against the Sun." In 2016 he was awarded the Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award in recognition of his scholarship on maritime and strategic affairs at the Naval War College.  

Dr. Yoshihara served as a visiting professor at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University; the School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego; and the Strategy Department of the U.S. Air War College. He currently teaches a graduate course on seapower in the Indo-Pacific at the School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University.

Showlinks

• Chinese Lessons from the Great Pacific War: Implications for PRC Warfighting, CBSA
• China is Learning About Western Decision Making from the Ukraine War, by Mick Ryan
• Elbridge Colby on X
• U.S. Navy's Top Officer Plans for Confrontation With China by 2027

Summary

In this conversation, Toshi Yoshihara, Sal, and Mark delve into the lessons that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has learned from historical conflicts, particularly the Pacific War in World War II. They discuss the importance of logistics, intelligence, and joint operations in modern warfare, as well as how the PLA is analyzing past battles to inform its future strategies. The conversation also touches on the implications of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the concept of comprehensive national power in the context of military readiness and capability.

Takeaways

• The PLA has not fought a major war since 1979, relying on historical analysis.
• China studies past conflicts to inform its military strategies.
• Logistics played a crucial role in the success of the US in the Pacific War.
• Shore-based air power is essential for modern military operations.
• The PLA recognizes its weaknesses in joint operations and is working to improve.
• Intelligence gathering and analysis are vital for understanding adversaries.
• The study of history is integral to military education in China.
• The PLA draws lessons from both World War II and contemporary conflicts.
• China is observing the Russia-Ukraine war for strategic insights.
• Comprehensive national power is a key concept in assessing military capabilities.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Context of the Discussion
02:56: China's Learning from Historical Conflicts
09:12: Analyzing Key Battles of the Pacific War
20:44: Logistics and Its Importance in Warfare
27:53: The Concept of Joint Operations in Military Strategy
30:06: The Role of Intelligence in Modern Warfare
34:05: Intellectual Approaches to Military History
43:17: Lessons from the Japanese and American Military Strategies
48:56: Learning from the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
58:01: Comprehensive National Power and Its Implications

Summer is over, and it's time to focus on adult things once again.

If it is of interest to from the Pacific to the Red Sea to the Potomac River—we have you covered.

Showlinks:

• Royal Navy Ship Availability graphic
• CO USS John S. McCain relieved
• Egypt in Yemen Civil War 1960s/70s
• US Army Typhon (not Typhoon, I know) launcher
• Egypt's Interest in PRC Aircraft

Summary

The conversation discusses the current situation in the Red Sea and the challenges posed by the Houthi rebels and Iran. It explores the implications of inaction and the role of the US and other nations in addressing the issue. The conversation also touches on the need for international cooperation and the changing dynamics of naval power. Other topics mentioned include the relief of the CO of the USS John S. McCain and the future of the Navy. The conversation in this part focuses on the importance of icebreakers and ice-hardened vessels in the Arctic region, the need for a grand strategy and force planning, the role of unmanned systems in warfare, the significance of mine warfare, and the changing dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Takeaways

• The Red Sea is currently a volatile region due to the activities of the Houthi rebels and Iran's support for them.
• The international community, particularly the US and its allies, need to address the situation in the Red Sea to ensure the free flow of trade and maintain stability.
• There are challenges and risks involved in taking action, including the potential for a larger conflict with Iran.
• The role of the US Navy and its allies in maintaining the security of the seas is crucial, but there are limitations to what they can do.
• The changing dynamics of naval power, including the rise of China in the Arctic, pose additional challenges for the US Navy.
• There is a need for international cooperation and a clear strategy to address the issues in the Red Sea and other critical maritime regions.
• The lack of icebreakers and ice-hardened vessels in the Arctic region is a concern for national security and environmental protection.
• Unmanned systems, including drones and unmanned submarines, are becoming increasingly important in modern warfare.
• Mine warfare is a critical aspect of naval operations and can be a deterrent to enemy forces.
• The Eastern Mediterranean is experiencing changing dynamics with the involvement of Egypt, Turkey, and China.

Sound Bites

• "The Red Sea is worse than the Wild Wild West."
• "If we're going to pursue this vigorously, then we really have to go after Iran."
• "If not the US Navy, people will look towards the Royal Navy."
• "If we're going to do the guns and butter routine again, sometimes you ought to have guns and not just all butter."

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Technical Difficulties
03:20: The Volatile Situation in the Red Sea
08:05: Challenges of Addressing the Conflict
15:25: The Role of Naval Power in Maritime Security
21:03: The Need for Investment in Naval Assets
31:02: China's Growing Presence in the Arctic
32:47: Icebreakers and Arctic Security
34:42: Grand Strategy and Countering Great Power Competition
40:14: Unmanned Systems in Modern Warfare
48:48: The Significance of Range in Defense and Offense
55:46: Mine Warfare and Naval Operations
59:26: Geopolitical Dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean
01:01:24: China's Presence in Egypt and Regional Implications

Where there appears to be a fair bit of shock and surprise in the general public, for those who have tracked the story closest, the feeling could be found along the spectrum from resignation to dismay. This did not happen overnight - and for those given responsibility for our nation’s sea power, this was only a matter of time. By acts of commission and omission, the nation that likes to call itself the world’s greatest - because we are no longer the largest - seapower, finds itself here;
The Navy will reportedly sideline 17 vessels due to a manpower shortage that makes it difficult to properly crew and operate ships across the fleet. …The ships include two replenishment ships, one fleet oiler, a dozen Spearhead-class Expeditionary Fast Transports and two forward-deployed Navy expeditionary sea bases – the USS Lewis Puller, based in Bahrain and the USS Herschel "Woody" Williams, based in Souda Bay, Greece.

The effort is known as the "great reset" and is awaiting approval from Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti. The change will reduce Navy demands for officers by 700 mariners.

No amount of spin or PAO squid ink can hide this carbuncle - so we’re going to dive into it on the next Midrats Podcast. Returning to Midrats to get everyone up to speed is Dr. Sal Mercogliano, Chair Department of History, Criminal Justice and Political Science at Campbell University Former merchant mariner, contributor to USNI Proceedings, Sea History, Naval History, and gCaptain. Host of the YouTube channel What's Going on With Shipping.

Summary
The conversation discusses the recent decision by the Navy to sideline 17 vessels due to a manpower shortage. This decision has raised concerns about the impact on the fleet's operational capabilities. The guest, Dr. Sal Mercagliano, explains that this issue has been a long time coming and traces it back to decisions made in the 1980s. He highlights the challenges faced by Military Sealift Command (MSC) in recruiting and retaining mariners, as well as the negative impact of COVID-19 on crew availability. The conversation also touches on the lack of recognition and benefits for CivMars, the civilian mariners who serve on these ships.

The conversation explores the challenges and potential solutions for the Military Sealift Command (MSC) and the U.S. merchant marine. The complex chain of command for MSC and the stringent requirements for civilian merchant sailors are discussed. The need to make it easier for people to transition from active duty to MSC is highlighted. The conversation also addresses the issues of training, leave, and travel expenses for MSC mariners. The low recruitment rate from the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy and the negative experiences of some mariners with MSC are mentioned. 

The potential consequences of a shortage of mariners during a crisis are examined. The conversation emphasizes the importance of proper allocation of funds and the need for leadership and recognition of mariners' contributions. The lack of visibility and positive messaging about the merchant marine is discussed, along with the need for a national maritime strategy. The importance of logistics and the challenges of maintaining a strong logistics force are highlighted. 

The conversation concludes with a discussion on the need to reevaluate the role of MSC and the potential benefits of reverting some ships from USNS to USS.

Takeaways

• The Navy's decision to sideline 17 vessels due to a manpower shortage raises concerns about the fleet's operational capabilities.
• Recruiting and retaining mariners has been a long-standing challenge for Military Sealift Command (MSC).
• The COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the crew availability issue.
• CivMars, the civilian mariners who serve on these ships, do not receive adequate recognition and benefits for their service. The chain of command for MSC is complicated, which makes life difficult for the Admiral in charge of MSC.
• There is a need to make it easier for people to transition from active duty to MSC.
• The stringent requirements for civilian merchant sailors and the training and travel expenses for MSC mariners need to be addressed and made more efficient.
• The recruitment rate from the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy is low, and negative experiences with MSC can deter mariners from continuing their careers at sea.
• There is a need for a national maritime strategy and better recognition of the contributions of mariners.
• The importance of logistics and the challenges of maintaining a strong logistics force are emphasized.
• Reverting some ships from USNS to USS and putting supply officers in charge of fleets and commands could improve the understanding and management of logistics.

Chapters

• 00:00: Introduction and Invitation to Join the Conversation
• 02:07: The Navy's Decision to Sideline 17 Vessels
• 05:32: The Long-standing Issue of Personnel Shortage in the Military Sealift Command
• 09:09: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Merchant Marine and the MSC
• 15:23: The Poor Work Environment and Recruitment Challenges
• 26:00: The Importance of Auxiliaries in Supporting Warships
• 29:26: The Potential Repercussions of Sidelineing Vessels
• 31:54: Addressing the Manpower Shortage: Improving Work Environment and Recruitment
• 33:23: The Complex Chain of Command for MSC
• 34:19: Making the Transition to MSC Easier
• 35:34: Increasing Recruitment from the U.S. Merchant Marine Academy
• 36:29: Addressing Negative Experiences and Retention Issues
• 37:50: The Potential Consequences of a Shortage of Mariners
• 40:55: The Importance of Leadership and Resource Allocation

If you find a message that is consistent over time, through times of ease and times of challenge, and at each challenge in the real world this message is validated, reinforced, and found to be correct — is that a message you need to pay attention to?

Since the Houthi joined a second front with the Gazans against Israel by attacking international shipping in the Red Sea and its approaches, the US Navy has led the international response and has been engaged in continuous combat operations facing almost all anti-ship weapons that any navy would expect to face in 2024.

The experience in the Red Sea is validating the consistent messages about fleet size and requirements voiced by our guest this week on Midrats — a consistent guest since 2010 — Bryan McGrath, Commander, USN (Ret.).

Showlinks:
The Navy is too Damn Small: Bryan McGrath on Substsack.
The Law the Department of Defense Loves to Break: Madeline Zimmerman
Buy Fords, not Ferraris: Jerry Hendrix

Summary
In this conversation, Sal, Mark, and Bryan McGrath discuss the ongoing attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea by the Houthis, who are clients of Iran. They also talk about the performance of the US Navy in protecting commercial shipping, the investments made in the Navy, and improvements and challenges in the US Navy. The conversation then shifts to the development of directed energy weapons and the challenges in integrating them into the fleet. They also discuss the importance of multi-mission platforms and the need for single-mission platforms in certain situations. The conversation concludes with a discussion on the presence and deterrence mission of submarines and the need for VLS reload capabilities on DDGs. McGrath highlighted the positive changes in the fleet's material condition and combat systems, as well as the increased investment in training and spare parts. However, he also expressed concerns about the extended deployments and the strain it puts on ships and crews. McGrath emphasized the need for a larger Navy, particularly in terms of aircraft carriers, to meet the demands of global operations. He also discussed the challenges in the shipbuilding industry and the importance of stability and additional shipyards.

Sound Bites
"It is time to bring systems to see that allow us to economically engage civilizations that can out-produce us""There's been three straight budgets now that have funded spare parts significantly higher than I have seen them since I was in command."

Chapters
00:00: Introduction
02:04: Ongoing Attacks on International Shipping in the Red Sea
04:07: Performance of the Fleet in the Red Sea
07:10: The Potential of Directed Energy Weapons
09:40: Challenges in Integrating New Technology
12:14: The Need for More VLS Tubes and Single-Mission Platforms
16:13: The Role of Submarines in Naval Power
21:53: Deterrence in the South China Sea
26:43: Presence and Deterrence with the USS Georgia
30:20: Rearming DDGs and the Importance of VLS
33:36: Improvements in Shipyards and Material Conditions
41:18: The Need for More Aircraft Carriers
48:00: The Impact of Extended Deployments
54:35: The Importance of Spare Parts
58:58: Challenges of the Constellation Class
01:00:09: The Importance of Stability and Additional Shipyards

Bryan is the founding Managing Director of The FerryBridge Group LLC (FBG), a niche consultancy specializing in naval and national security issues including national and military strategy, strategic planning, executive communications, strategic communications, and emerging technologies. A retired Naval Officer, Bryan spent 21 years on active duty including a tour in command of USS BULKELEY (DDG 84), a guided-missile destroyer homeported in Norfolk, Virginia.

In command, he received the “Admiral Elmo Zumwalt Award for Inspirational Leadership” from the Surface Navy Association and his ship earned the USS ARIZONA Memorial Trophy signifying its selection as the Fleet’s most combat-ready warship. His final duties ashore included serving as Team Lead and Primary Author of the US Navy’s 2007 Maritime Strategy “A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower”.

Bryan was formerly the Deputy Director of the Hudson Institute Center for American Seapower. In this capacity, he helped develop the Surface Navy’s “Distributed Lethality” concept and the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments’ 2017 Navy Alternate Fleet Architecture Study. He served as the Co-Lead of the 2012 Romney for President Naval Policy Committee, and the Lead of the 2016 Rubio for President Navy and Marine Corps Policy Committee.

In March of 2023, he was appointed by the Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee (HASC Rep. Mike Rogers R-Al) to the National Commission on the Future of the Navy. Bryan earned a BA in History from the University of Virginia in 1987, and an MA in Political Science (Congressional Studies) from The Catholic University of America. He is a graduate of the Naval War College.

Look who we have on a short-turnaround visit to Midrats, Dr. Emma Salisbury!We’re going to cover the waterfront issues in the Anglosphere, but we’ll kick off the discussion with the issues she outlined in her recent Behind the Front post, Franken-FREMM: How the Constellation Class Became a Monster.

Emma recently completed her PhD at Birkbeck College, University of London, with research focusing on the history of the U.S. military-industrial complex. She is the Sea Power Research Fellow at the Council on Geostrategy, Fellow at UK Strategic Command Defence Futures, and an assistant editor at War on the Rocks.

Showlinks

• Franken-FREMM: How the Constellation Class Became a Monster - Emma Salisbury
• Beyond the Iron Triangle: The Military-Industrial Complex as Assemblage - Emma Salisbury
• The US Navy has Fallen Victim to the British Disease - Tom Sharpe

Summary

The conversation discusses the challenges and systemic problems in naval shipbuilding, specifically focusing on the Constellation Class FFG program. The guests highlight the lack of learning from previous failures, the accumulation of unnecessary changes, and the desire for perfection at the outset. They also explore the mindset issue in shipbuilding, the impact of economic considerations on decision-making, and the importance of maintaining shipbuilding capacity. The conversation emphasizes the need for an iterative approach and long-term planning to address these issues. The conversation explores the challenges and issues surrounding naval procurement and shipbuilding in the UK and the US. It discusses the underfunding of the armed forces, the problem of project creep, the need for investment in defense, and the importance of having a clear vision for ship designs. The conversation also touches on the potential of AI and unmanned assets in the future, the need for flexibility in ship designs, and the importance of maintaining a strong defense industrial base.

Takeaways

• Naval shipbuilding faces systemic problems and a lack of learning from previous failures.
• The desire for perfection at the outset and the accumulation of unnecessary changes contribute to shipbuilding challenges.
• Economic considerations and the impact on local communities often influence decision-making in shipbuilding programs.
• Maintaining shipbuilding capacity is crucial for national security and requires long-term planning.
• An iterative approach, similar to China's shipbuilding strategy, could be beneficial for naval shipbuilding programs. Both the UK and the US have historically underfunded their armed forces, leading to challenges in naval procurement and shipbuilding.
• Project creep, the tendency to continuously add features and modifications to a design, has been a major problem in naval procurement.
• Investment in defense is necessary to ensure the readiness and capability of armed forces.
• There is a need for a clear vision and focus on the intended role and capabilities of ships, rather than trying to make them do everything.
• While AI and unmanned assets hold promise for the future, there is still a long way to go in terms of technology development and integration into fleet structures.
• Flexibility in ship designs is important to accommodate future upgrades and capabilities.
• Maintaining a strong defense industrial base is crucial for national security and the success of naval procurement and shipbuilding.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction
01:21: Systemic Problems in Naval Shipbuilding
03:03: The Constellation Class FFG Program and its Challenges
06:01: The Desire for Perfection and Accumulation of Changes
10:26: The Need for an Iterative Approach in Shipbuilding
17:47: Economic Considerations and Decision-Making in Shipbuilding
22:40: The Importance of Maintaining Shipbuilding Capacity
25:23: Long-Term Planning for Naval Shipbuilding
29:48: Underfunding and Sea Blindness
33:01: The Problem of Project Creep
35:44: The Need for Defense Investment
38:41: Making the Case for Defense Spending
44:12: The Importance of Clear Ship Designs
46:09: The Potential and Limitations of AI and Unmanned Assets
49:32: Flexibility in Ship Designs for Future Upgrades
52:09: The Challenge of Limited Space and Displacement
55:09: Fixing the Defense Industrial Base

What has the People’s Republic of China been doing to grow its influence in the Pacific Island nations that proved so crucial in the Pacific theater in WWII, and will be just as important for the next Great Pacific War?

Our guest for the full hour is be Cleo Paskal.Cleo is Non-Resident Senior Fellow focusing on the Indo-Pacific at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. She has testified before Congress multiple times and regularly lectures for seminars for the U.S. military. She is also a columnist with India's The Sunday Guardian newspaper. She is surprisingly short, but as this is a podcast, no one will notice.

Showlinks:

• Protecting the Corridor of Freedom to America’s Asian Border, by Cleo Paskal. Published July 1, 2024 in Journal of INDO-PACIFIC Affairs.
• Island-Hopping with Chinese Characteristics—What the PRC Is Island-Hopping with Chinese Characteristics, by Cleo Paskal. Published in the Autumn 2023 edition of the Naval War College Review.
• Chinese Lessons From the Pacific War: Implications for PLA Warfighting, by Toshi Yoshihara. Published January 5, 2023 at Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.
• The Compacts of Free Association report by the Congressional Research Service, April 2024.
• Map of the South Pacific Ocean.

Summary:

The conversation discusses China's growing influence in the Pacific Island nations and its comprehensive national power strategy. The Pacific Island nations, located between Hawaii and Guam, are strategically important for the US. China's comprehensive national power metric ranks countries based on various factors, including economic, military, and political influence. China's approach is externally focused and aims to increase its own power while decreasing the power of other nations. The Chinese Communist Party's influence extends beyond government and includes economic, social, and criminal elements. The US and its allies need to be aware of China's grand strategy and its impact on the Pacific region. The principal themes of the conversation are the importance of addressing corruption in the Pacific Islands, the strategic significance of the Pacific region, the need for maritime domain enforcement, and the role of the US in supporting the Pacific Islands.

Takeaways:

• China is actively growing its influence in the Pacific Island nations, which are strategically important for the US.
• China's comprehensive national power metric ranks countries based on various factors and aims to increase China's power while decreasing the power of other nations.
• China's approach is externally focused and includes economic, social, and criminal elements.
• The US and its allies need to be aware of China's grand strategy and its impact on the Pacific region. Corruption in the Pacific Islands is a major issue that needs to be addressed, as it undermines national security and allows China to gain influence in the region.
• The Pacific region is strategically significant, and control over the islands and maritime routes is crucial for both the US and China.
• Maritime domain enforcement is essential to protect the rights and interests of the Pacific Islands and to counter illegal activities by China.
• The US should provide support to the Pacific Islands in terms of intelligence sharing, investigations, and strengthening their legal systems to combat corruption and defend their communities.
• The US needs to increase its presence and engagement in the Pacific Islands to counter China's influence and protect its own interests in the region.

Sound Bites:

• "If you have a Pacific centered map, you know, the Indo-Pacific is going to be the, to the 21st century, what the Atlantic was to the 20th century."
• "China's comprehensive national power mentality seems to have actually translated into action in the way that they interact with the region."
• "China's approach is not just a kind of zero-sum game. They will go into the other side loses more."
• "You are sending in the mercy or Guard cut or whatever corruption that's happening on the ground is what's feeding out into the maritime environment, the air environment, and the entire national security bubble and corroding it."
• "We should have an unlimited prosecution and investigation budget. You don't compete on their terms, you compete on our terms because fundamentally, I think our system is better."
• "Unless we raise the cost of taking the money from China and give breathing space to the people who are trying to defend their communities and the things that they believe, it's not going to tip in our favor."

Chapters:

00:00: Introduction and Call to Join the Conversation
02:10: Overview of the Pacific Island Nations
07:24: China's Comprehensive National Power Strategy
13:33: China's Influence in the Commonwealth of Northern Marianas
21:23: China's Braided Approach and Challenges for the US
32:18: The Corrosive Effect of Corruption on National Security
34:44: The Significance of the First and Second Island Chains
38:29: The Importance of Geography in Conflict
41:58: The Need for a Stronger US Presence in the Pacific Islands
47:14: China's Political Warfare in the Pacific Islands
53:22: China's Maritime Strategy in Latin America
56:20: Enforcing Maritime Domain Awareness in the Pacific Islands
59:41: The Importance of FBI Field Offices in the Pacific Islands

Summary

In this conversation, Sal and Mark discuss various topics related to national security and the military. They start by questioning the purpose and effectiveness of the US presence in the Red Sea. They also touch on the lack of accountability in the executive branch, the importance of congressional oversight, and the decline in military press coverage. They highlight some positive developments, such as improvements in ship maintenance and the increased visibility of sailors through social media. They also mention the exoneration of the Chicago 50 and the extended screen time given to sailors by the Commanding Officer of the USS Eisenhower. Overall, the conversation explores the challenges and successes in the military and national security arena. The conversation covers various topics related to the Navy and its operations. Some of the main themes include the importance of the Navy's distinctive uniforms and theatrical landscapes for visibility and recruitment, the need for effective shipbuilding and acquisition processes, the limitations of relying on a single aircraft design, the importance of a diverse toolkit for a complicated world, the challenges of extending the range of strike forces, the need for search and rescue capabilities in the Pacific, and the significance of logistics and resupply ships in operations.Takeaways

• The purpose and effectiveness of the US presence in the Red Sea is questioned, highlighting the need for clear guidance and intent from the executive branch.
• Congressional oversight is crucial in holding the executive branch accountable, but it may be limited during an election year.
• There has been a noticeable improvement in ship maintenance and corrosion control in the past 18 months, which is a positive development.
• The increased visibility of sailors through social media and the efforts of the CEO of the USS Eisenhower to showcase their work are commendable.
• The exoneration of the Chicago 50 and the recognition of their contributions is a step towards acknowledging past injustices.
• There is a need for more personalized and relatable storytelling to showcase the importance and impact of the military. The Navy's distinctive uniforms and theatrical landscapes are important for visibility and recruitment.
• Effective shipbuilding and acquisition processes are crucial for the Navy's success.
• Relying on a single aircraft design limits the Navy's capabilities.
• A diverse toolkit is necessary for navigating a complicated world.
• Extending the range of strike forces is a challenge that needs to be addressed.
• Search and rescue capabilities are essential in the Pacific.
• Logistics and resupply ships play a significant role in operations.

Chapters
00:00 - Introduction and Invitation to Engage
01:40 - Questioning the Purpose of the US Presence in the Red Sea
05:04 - The Importance of Congressional Oversight
10:10 - Improvements in Ship Maintenance and Corrosion Control
18:15 - Increasing Visibility of Sailors through Social Media
24:14 - The Need for Personalized Storytelling in the Military
33:51 - The Importance of Visibility and Recruitment
36:16 - The Need for Effective Shipbuilding and Acquisition
41:43 - The Limitations of Relying on a Single Aircraft Design
46:20 - Navigating a Complicated World with a Diverse Toolkit
52:14 - Challenges in Extending the Range of Strike Forces
59:30 - The Significance of Search and Rescue in the Pacific
01:02:21 - The Role of Logistics and Resupply Ships in Operations

How have the modern European navies developed since the start of the Cold War, and how are they positioned to address the challenges we see today?

Returning to Midrats this Sunday at 3pm Eastern will be Dr. Jeremy Stöhs.Jeremy is an Austrian-American security and defense analyst. He co-heads the Austrian Center for Intelligence, Propaganda & Security Studies at the University of Graz and is a senior fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University. His publications include The Decline of European Naval Forces: Challenges to Sea Power in an Age of Fiscal Austerity and Political Uncertainty (Naval Institute Press, 2018) and newly published European Naval Power: From Cold War to Hybrid Wars (Palgrave Macmillan, 2024).

The new book will be the focus of our discussion.

In a news cycle dominated by the attempted assassination of former President Trump, give yourself a break with an update on the Russian military in year three of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with regular Midrats guest Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg.

Dmitry Gorenburg is Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.
 
Takeaways

• The Russo-Ukrainian War has been ongoing for three years, with Russia's goals evolving over time.
• Both Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in offensives, but significant territorial gains have become increasingly difficult.
• The war has had a significant impact on the demographics of the fighting forces, particularly in rural and poorer areas.
• Electronic warfare plays a crucial role in the conflict, with both sides adapting and evolving their tactics.
• Russia's defense industry faces challenges in terms of production and sourcing components, but they have found alternative ways to maintain supplies.
• The Russian economy has shifted to a war economy, with a focus on defense spending and investment.
• The labor shortage in Russia poses a challenge for the long-term sustainability of their defense industry and economy. China's relationship with Russia is driven by a significant coincidence of interests, particularly in weakening the United States and its alliance with Europe.
• The war in Ukraine is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with both sides believing they are inching closer to victory.
• The resolution of the conflict will require negotiation and potential concessions from both sides, but the outcome is uncertain.
• The relationship between Russia and the West is unlikely to return to the pre-war era, and a new normal will have to be established.
• The role of China in supporting Russia and the impact of Western assistance on Ukraine are critical factors to watch in the coming months.

Chapters00:00 - The Evolving Goals of the Russo-Ukrainian War
07:50 - Winter Offensives and Stalemate
11:46 - Long-Range Strikes and Demoralization
17:14 - Demographics and Impact on Rural Areas
20:03 - The Role of Electronic Warfare
24:58 - Challenges in Russia's Defense Industry
29:49 - The Shift to a War Economy
31:25 - Labor Shortage and Inflation
32:54 - The Russia-China Partnership
37:32 - The Existential Threat to Russia
44:50- - Russian Sabotages and Assassination Efforts
48:02 - The Battle in Central Europe and Western Europe
52:18 - The Stalemate in Ukraine and Potential Solutions
56:30 - The Role of China and Western Assistance
01:00:08 - Key Factors to Watch