This summer, the fourth summer of the Russo-Ukrainian War that started in the winter of 2022, we find the first serious and determined effort towards a genuine negotiation to end this grinding war in Eastern Europe.

The experiences and lessons of this war aren’t only changing how nations throughout the world prepare for their next war, it has forced even greater changes on both combatants how they fight now and plan structuring their national defense post-war.

Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. 

Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.

Show Links

• Inside Russia’s Shadow Military Sustaining the War, by Mariya Y. Omelicheva
• India’s Ministry of External Affairs letter of 04 August 2025.
• Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) Analysis papers.
• Russian Military Reform Blog

Summary

In this episode of the Midrats Podcast, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is explored in depth, focusing on the initial misjudgments about the war's duration, the societal costs for Russia, and the regional disparities in the impact of the war. The conversation also delves into recruitment strategies, the role of paramilitary forces, economic pressures, and the dynamics within NATO. Additionally, military reforms, the influence of drones on warfare, and international support for Russia's military efforts are discussed, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the conflict and its broader implications.

Takeaways

• The initial belief was that Russia would win quickly.
• The price of repression in Russia has increased significantly.
• Recruitment for the war is more successful in rural areas.
• The narrative has shifted to a defensive stance against the West.
• Paramilitary forces were initially relied upon due to manpower shortages.
• The Russian economy has held up better than expected despite sanctions.
• Drones have made battlefields more static and less mobile.
• Russia is undergoing military reforms to adapt to the ongoing conflict.
• The North-South divide in NATO influences regional support for Ukraine.
• Russia's GDP is lower than that of Texas, highlighting economic challenges.

Chapters

00:00: Intro to the Ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict
05:34: Initial Misjudgments and Long-Term Perspectives
08:31: The Price of War on Russian Society
12:11: Regional Disparities in Russia's War Impact
16:38: Shifting Narratives and Recruitment Strategies
20:28: The Role of Paramilitary Forces
24:52: Economic Pressures and Negotiation Prospects
30:12: Russia's War Economy and International Trade
31:16: Military Reforms and Logistics Improvements
38:50: The Impact of Drones on Warfare
54:34: International Support and Drone Development
56:25: NATO Dynamics and Eastern European Politics

There is no better way to stay out of the summer heat than to take an hour to join us for a Midrats Podcast melee!

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, hosts discuss a range of topics related to maritime and national security, including the importance of civil discourse in political discussions, Australia's acquisition of Japanese frigates, cybersecurity threats, and the geopolitical tensions in the Arctic and Antarctic. They emphasize the need for strong diplomatic efforts and the role of NATO in ensuring security in Europe and beyond.

Show Links

• Insults towards Medal of Honor recipient Florent Groberg
• Australia selects Japanese Mogami frigate
• Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (AKA Middle Corridor)
• PRC Students in the USA
• The China Defence Universities Tracker, Australian Strategic Policy Institute
• British and U.S. F-35Bs Land on Japan’s JS Kaga

Takeaways

• The importance of civil discourse in political discussions.
• Patriotism should not be questioned based on political affiliations.
• Australia's acquisition of Japanese frigates signifies strong defense ties.
• Japan's military capabilities are highly regarded in the Pacific.
• Supply chain integrity is crucial for national security.
• Cybersecurity threats from foreign nations are increasing.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Arctic are rising due to China's claims.
• Diplomatic efforts can lead to conflict resolution in various regions.
• The U.S. has a significant role in international peacekeeping efforts.
• NATO's future is intertwined with the security of its member states.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to the Melee Discussion
02:03: Patriotism and Political Discourse
13:22: Australia's Naval Developments
19:14: The Role of Japan in Defense
22:07: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Concerns
23:39: Cybersecurity and National Security Risks
35:14: Geopolitical Tensions in the Arctic and Antarctic
48:07: Diplomatic Efforts and Conflict Resolution
53:23: The Future of NATO and European Security

Show Links

• Navy’s Plan for Unmanned Systems
• Department of Crazy Ideas: How about a cheap inshore fleet? Mark Tempest, 2009.
• Buy Fords, Not Ferraris, Jerry Hendrix, 2008
• Droning on About Drones, CDR Salamander, 2013
• Building the Navy’s Hybrid Fleet, Lieutenant Commander Jack Rowley, Proceedings, July 2025.
• The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, Robert A. Heinlein
• The Mote in God’s Eye, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle
• Benjamin Kohlmann, Nominated for Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Manpower and Reserve Affairs
• John Lewis-class replenishment oiler
• Cleo Paskal on X
• A Death in the Pacific, CDR Salamander, July 2025
• Rods From God
• Austria Ponders NATO

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, the hosts discuss the current state of the U.S. Navy, starting with the new Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) and the challenges he faces in balancing operational needs with budget constraints. They explore the importance of shipbuilding and naval readiness, innovations in technology such as modular attack surface craft, and the role of autonomous systems in enhancing operational capabilities. The conversation also touches on economic considerations in naval strategy, the potential for space-based systems, and the significance of recruitment and training for future naval forces. Additionally, the hosts discuss the role of the Naval Reserve, political dynamics in naval appointments, logistical challenges, and geopolitical considerations in the Pacific, concluding with thoughts on NATO's future and the potential inclusion of Austria.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction
02:05: New CNO and Navy Leadership Challenges
04:57: Shipbuilding and Naval Readiness
09:43: Modular Attack Surface Craft, Drones, and Innovation
16:15: Autonomous Systems and Experimentation
19:23: Risk Management via Distributed Risk
21:32: Economic Considerations in Naval Strategy
22:55: Rods from God: Now More Than Ever
30:18: The Role of the Naval Reserve
33:50: Political Appointments and Their Impact
36:22: More Oilers, Faster
47:28: Saipan, and Geopolitical Considerations in the Pacific
52:52: Austria’s future of NATO?
01:01:46: Conclusion and Recommendations

On today’s Midrats, we have returning guest Craig Whiteside and his co-author Ian C. Rice joining us to discuss one of the nightmares we all have in the new book coming out this month. He co-authored it with Ian Rice, Non-state Special Operations: Capabilities and Effects.

From the abstract:
Building on previous research on Islamic State special operations, the book develops a theoretical framework surrounding a typology of VNSA (militants, proxies, criminal/cults, and mercenaries) to explore variations of non-state special operations, with multiple cases for each category of actor. Understanding when and why VNSA use special operations provides insights into the inner workings of such groups and how they campaign, and also has implications for the proliferation of special operation forces around the globe and its influence on non-state behaviour. This volume contributes to research on the recent trend of non-state actors surprising, and in some cases humiliating, their state opponents.

Craig is Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval War College resident program at the Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California. He is the co-author of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement (2020). He has a PhD in Political Science from Washington State University and is a former U.S. Army infantry officer.

His coauthor Ian is an adjunct Senior Lecturer in the Department of Defense Analysis, Naval Postgraduate School, adjunct faculty member with the College of Distance Education, USMC University, and a guest lecturer with the Royal Danish Defence College. He is a retired U.S. Army officer who served with special operations forces.

Show Links

• Non-state Special Operations: Capabilities and Effects, by Craig Whiteside and Ian Rice.
• Operation Chariot
• Defeat Into Victory: Battling Japan in Burma and India, 1942-1945, Field-Marshal Viscount William Slim

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, hosts discuss the complexities of non-state special operations with authors Craig Whiteside and Ian Rice. They delve into the historical context, defining characteristics, and implications of special operations conducted by non-state actors. The conversation highlights the importance of understanding the motivations and strategies of these actors, as well as the challenges they pose to state actors. The authors share insights from their new book, exploring the evolution of non-state operations and the need for a nuanced approach to countering them.

Takeaways

• Special operations are defined as tactical actions designed to achieve outsized effects.
• Historical examples illustrate the long-standing use of special operations by non-state actors.
• Understanding the typology of non-state actors is crucial for effective analysis and response.
• Prison breakouts are a common tactic used by non-state actors to regain manpower.
• Cults and criminal groups can also engage in special operations, often driven by self-interest.
• Not all terrorist acts qualify as special operations; criteria must be applied to distinguish them.
• The opportunity cost of special operations can be significant for both state and non-state actors.
• Mercenaries have a unique role in conducting special operations, particularly in coups.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to Non-State Special Operations
02:15: Genesis of the Book and Collaboration
05:49: Defining Special Operations
08:43: Historical Context of Non-State Actors
11:36: Analyzing Non-State Actors
18:13: Understanding the Typology of Non-State Actors
23:42: Criteria for Special Operations
28:45: Prison Breakouts as a Tactic
32:13: Cults and Criminal Groups in Special Operations
36:53: Distinguishing Terrorism from Special Operations
43:26: The Cost of Special Operations
49:13: Mercenaries and Coups
52:08: Mindset of Special Operations
58:47: Implications for Future Operations

Take a break from the heat today to discuss some of the hidden history, and importance, of the Presidential retreat at Camp David with the author of the book, Presidential Seclusion: The Power of Camp David, Charles Ferguson.

After graduating from Georgia Tech and earning his commission, Charles Ferguson served for 11 years in the Submarine force onboard the USS Louisville and as Weapons Officer onboard USS Buffalo with a shore duty at Nuclear Power School in between. He switched to the IRR as Chaplain Candidate while attending seminary at Duke Divinity School and was recommissioned as an Active Duty Chaplain in 2010. As a chaplain he has served with both Navy and Marine Corps commands to include three and a half years as the Chaplain and Historian at Camp David.

Showlink

• Presidential Seclusion: The Power of Camp David

Summary

This conversation explores the historical significance and operational dynamics of the Presidential retreat of Camp David. The discussion highlights its origins, the Navy's role in its management, and the unique environment it provides for presidents to make critical decisions. The conversation also delves into the architectural design that facilitates diplomacy, notable guests who have visited, and the personal touches each president has added to the retreat. Additionally, the role of the chaplain and the supportive relationship with the local community are examined, emphasizing the importance of solitude for leaders in high-pressure positions.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to Camp David's Significance
05:35: The Navy's Role in Camp David's History
10:27: Becoming the Chaplain and Historian at Camp David
15:22: The Origins and Transformation of Camp David
20:38: The Impact of Camp David on Presidential Decisions
29:15: Notable Guests and Diplomatic Encounters at Camp David
30:53: Architectural Diplomacy at Camp David
34:20: Presidential Modifications and Personal Touches
38:04: The Origin of Camp David's Name
40:58: Management and Operations at Camp David
43:13: The Role of the Chaplain
45:25: The Solitude of Leadership
49:32: Community Interactions and Local Support
53:22: Memorable Moments and Staff Contributions
58:14: The Importance of Setting Conditions for Peace
01:00: Future Projects and Closing Thoughts

Show Link

• InfantryDort’s comment mentioned at start of the show

Summary

The conversation explores the themes of cultural assimilation, national identity, freedom of speech, and the challenges of civil discourse in contemporary society. The hosts discuss the implications of cultural integration on national security and the importance of leadership in fostering a healthy societal environment. They reflect on the historical context of civil rights movements and the need for a national conversation about current societal issues, emphasizing the value of freedom and the responsibilities that come with it.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction
02:00: Cultural Assimilation and National Identity
09:42: Challenges of Assimilation and Cultural Clashes
14:47: Freedom of Speech and Its Boundaries
20:31: The Role of Universities in Civil Discourse
28:15: Historical Context of Civil Rights and Current Issues
37:49: Protests and Civil Disobedience
47:53: National Security and Military Readiness

What can the world’s most capable maritime and aerospace power do?

The world was reminded this weekend.There is no other place this week’s Midrats could start but the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Summary

The conversation delves into the recent Operation Midnight Hammer, discussing its implications for U.S.-Iran relations, the threat of Iranian retaliation, and the strategic military operations involved. The hosts analyze the historical context of U.S.-Iran tensions, the effectiveness of military responses, and the broader geopolitical landscape, including the role of international relations and domestic political reactions. They also touch on naval operations, fleet readiness, and the evolving nature of mine warfare in modern military strategy.

Chapters

00:00: Operation Midnight Hammer: A Historic Overview
05:31: Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and U.S. Response
12:03: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation
18:03: Military Capabilities and Strategic Operations
23:09: The Role of International Relations
29:09: Domestic Reactions and Political Implications
35:08: The Future of U.S.-Iran Relations
41:45: Naval Operations and Fleet Readiness
48:04: Mine Warfare and Modern Naval Strategy
54:47: Concluding Thoughts on Military Success and Future Challenges

Today we’re going to take a friend’s Substack post and turn it into one of the best podcast hours you’ll have this summer…and maybe give you some ideas about books you need to take with you for the July 4th weekend.

From Claude’s May 23rd Substack:
From the gun decks of HMS Indefatigable to the command chair of a futuristic starship, the portrayal of naval officers in fiction has evolved alongside society's changing views of leadership, warfare, and heroism. The archetype of the naval officer has been shaped not only by historical precedent but also by the imaginative needs of authors responding to their times.

Show Links:

• The Fictional Officer Corps: From Hornblower to Stark, by Claude Berube
• The Connor Stark novels and other books, by Claude Berube
• The Hornblower Series, by C. S. Forester
• Aubrey/Maturin Novels, by Patrick O'Brian
• The Caine Mutiny, by Herman Wouk
• Star Trek: The Original Series
• Run Silent, Run Deep, by Edward L. Beach
• Honor Harrington Series, by David Weber
• The Winds of War, by Herman Wouk
• Mister Roberts, by Thomas Heggen
• Wicked, by Gregory Maguire
• Star Wars’ Boba Fett
• P.T. Deuterman
• Mary Celeste

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, Sal, Mark, and Claude Berube discuss the evolution of naval fiction and its impact on leadership. They explore how naval characters in literature reflect societal changes and the complexities of leadership in both historical and modern contexts. The conversation delves into moral dilemmas faced by leaders, the significance of character development, and the challenges of internal rivalries within naval settings. Additionally, they touch on the importance of historical accuracy in fiction and the future of naval literature in a rapidly changing world.

Takeaways

• Fiction serves as a unique tool for exploring leadership.
• Naval characters in literature evolve with societal changes.
• Moral dilemmas are central to understanding leadership.
• Internal rivalries can challenge leadership effectiveness.
• Historical accuracy enhances the depth of naval stories.
• The readership among young people is declining.
• Stories about the human condition resonate deeply with readers.
• The future of naval literature faces uncertainties.
• Understanding the past is essential for shaping future narratives.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to the Conversation
02:00: The Evolution of Naval Fiction
04:03: Character Development in Naval Literature
13:55: Leadership and Command in Fiction
20:36: Moral Dilemmas in Naval Leadership
25:40: The Future of Naval Literature
28:46: The Evolution of Heroism at Sea
31:06: Leadership Dynamics in Fiction and Reality
35:27: Character Studies in Leadership
41:02: Navigating Internal Rivalries
46:24: The Changing Landscape of Naval Literature

Mark and I are back from most of May taking care of business!Time for a MIDRATS!

Show Links

• Pentagon chief tells Asian allies: Raise defence spending to 5% of GDP like Europe
• Tom Shugart post on PRC ship in Norfolk, from APR 2024
• 1980s Strategic Homeporting Initiative
• Claude Berube on OSS developing deep strike drone boats against Japanese bridges and tunnels in WW2
• Operation Pigeon
• Bat bombs
• The Atlantic on Who Killed America’s Shipbuilding Industry?
• Korean Shipyard Modernization
• Navy Secretary "Shocked and Dismayed" at Condition of Base Housing on Guam

Summary

In this episode, Sal and Mark discuss the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine War, focusing on Ukraine's innovative strategies and the implications for modern warfare. They explore the role of AI in military operations, the importance of strategic home porting, and the vulnerabilities in military infrastructure. The conversation also touches on the future of U.S. defense spending and the need to revitalize America's shipbuilding industry.Takeaways

• The Ukraine conflict has highlighted innovative military strategies.
• AI is becoming increasingly integrated into modern warfare.
• Strategic home porting is essential for national security.
• Military infrastructure vulnerabilities need urgent attention.
• Dispersing military assets can reduce risk in conflict scenarios.
• Revitalizing shipbuilding is crucial for military readiness.
• Simplifying the acquisition process can enhance military capabilities.
• Caring for military personnel is a priority for effective defense.
• Lessons from Ukraine can inform future military strategies.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Overview of Current Events
02:11: Analysis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
06:35: Technological Advancements in Warfare
12:18: Strategic Homeporting and Military Vulnerabilities
18:42: Lessons from Historical Military Engagements
24:51: Infrastructure and Operational Challenges
32:09: Rebuilding Naval Bases and Infrastructure
34:39: Hardening National Defense and Infrastructure
36:08: Geopolitical Concerns: China and Russia
40:18: Shipbuilding Industry Challenges and Innovations
46:13: Defense Spending and Budget Allocation
50:36: Leadership and Accountability in Defense Programs
53:32: The Future of Warfare and Military Strategy

The People’s Republic of China continues to expand its already well-established contestation of ownership, access, and control of ports throughout the world.

They have done this in parallel with building the world’s largest navy and a diverse set of military capabilities clearly designed with one purpose—defeating the U.S. military in the Indo-Pacific.

Returning to Midrats to discuss this and related topics is be T. X. Hammes.

T.X. is a distinguished research fellow at the Center for Strategic Research, National Defense University. He served 30 years in the U.S. Marine Corps.

Show Links

• China’s exploitation of overseas ports and bases
• Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie
• Ares anti-ship cruise missile
• Typhon
• MWI Podcast: The Future Battlefield, from Europe to the Indo-Pacific
• The Eastern Front

Summary

In this conversation, Sal, Mark, and T.X. Hammes discuss the implications of China's global expansion, particularly its military strategy and naval capabilities. They explore how China is leveraging its control over ports and logistics to challenge U.S. dominance in the Indo-Pacific. The discussion also delves into operational planning assumptions for potential conflict with China, the historical context of long wars, and the challenges facing U.S. military readiness. Innovative solutions for naval warfare, the importance of economic exhaustion and sea control, and the role of mines in modern warfare are also examined. The conversation concludes with thoughts on the future of military technology and the potential for leveraging civilian resources in military operations.

Takeaways

• China's global expansion poses significant challenges to U.S. interests.
• The U.S. Navy must adapt to China's growing naval capabilities.
• China's unconventional use of ports can disrupt global trade.
• Long wars are historically common between healthy powers.
• U.S. military readiness is not sufficient for a prolonged conflict.
• Innovative solutions like missile barges could enhance naval warfare.
• Economic exhaustion is a critical factor in long-term conflicts.
• Mines could play a crucial role in modern naval strategy.
• The focus should shift from platforms to payloads in military planning.
• Leveraging civilian resources can enhance military capabilities.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to China's Global Expansion
02:36: China's Naval Capabilities and Strategic Ports
10:42: Planning Assumptions for Potential Conflict
21:29: Control of the Sea and Economic Exhaustion
30:26: Utilizing Merchant Ships in Warfare
33:27: Investing in Future Military Technologies
35:44: Innovative Solutions for Pacific Defense
40:11: The Role of Unmanned Systems in Modern Warfare
42:57: Lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War
44:59: Adapting Combined Arms for Modern Conflicts
48:44: The Importance of Flexibility in Naval Operations
53:10: Building a Resilient Merchant Fleet
55:57: Exploring New Strategies for Warfare
01:00:50: Future Directions in Military Strategy