Here we find ourselves approaching the fifth spring of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022.As the rest of the world’s geopolitical landscape changes dramatically, Russia’s “friend group” shrinks, and Ukraine’s friends grow weary and distracted, where is the war moving and where could we expect Russia to adjust for another year of conflict?

Returning to Midrats again to discuss this and related issues is Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg, a Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000.

Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.

Summary

In this episode, we explore the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking its fifth spring, and analyze Russia’s current military strategy, technological dependencies, economic adjustments, and geopolitical efforts. Our expert guest, Dr. Dmitry Gorenberg, a senior research scientist at CNA, provides insights into Russia’s military tactics, technological challenges, and international alliances, painting a comprehensive picture of a pivotal moment in the conflict.

Key Topics:

• The significance of the fifth spring of the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications
• The role and impact of Starlink and Russian anti-satellite capabilities
• Russian military tactics: steady grinding, troop mobilization, and drone warfare
• The Russian psyche regarding prolonged conflict and public sentiment
• The influence of repression and government control on information dissemination
• Economic resilience: sanctions, oil prices, and support from BRICS nations
• Russia’s strategic partnerships: Venezuela, Iran, China, and others
• The role of sabotaging NATO and Western countries to weaken collective defense
• Information warfare: Russian propaganda, disinformation, and influence operations
• Technological dependencies: reliance on US-based satellite systems and Chinese components
• Russian military leadership: promotions, strategic updates, and future outlooks
• The geopolitics of energy, with focus on shadow fleets and the Straits of Hormuz

Timestamps:

• 00:00 - Introduction and overview of Russia’s fifth spring in the Ukraine conflict
• 02:09 - The impact of cutting off Starlink and communication disruptions on the front lines
• 04:20 - Russian troop mobilization strategies and tactics
• 05:39 - External foreign fighters: North Koreans, North Africans, and recruitment trends
• 08:33 - Russian public perception and cultural narrative about the war’s longevity
• 09:29 - The influence of repression, propaganda, and societal attitudes in Russia
• 12:46 - Government control of communications, internet censorship, and surveillance
• 16:15 - Russia’s dependence on US satellite systems and Chinese technology
• 17:36 - Russia’s technological gap: Satellites, GPS, and domestically developed systems
• 19:10 - Economic impacts: sanctions, oil prices, and Russia’s financial resilience 21:25 - Russia’s efforts with BRICS and global network of allies to bypass sanctions
• 23:24 - The role of Venezuela, Iran, and other countries in Russia’s geopolitical web
• 27:06 - Russia’s sabotage operations against NATO and Western nations
• 30:13 - Political influence campaigns, disinformation, and influence operations
• 32:09 - Reflection on Cold War-era propaganda and current information strategies
• 33:38 - The use of media, social platforms, and online influence in shaping narratives
• 37:40 - Historical perspective on propaganda, public manipulation, and media control
• 39:51 - Modern military technology, including missile attacks and Ukraine’s defense
• 42:11 - The evolving missile landscape, targeting energy infrastructure and battlefield logistics
• 44:46 - Russia’s advanced satellite capabilities: intercepting and maneuvering satellites
• 46:47 - External support for Russia: North Korean, Iranian weapons, and China’s role
• 48:00 - Chinese technology and components aiding Russia’s military industry
• 50:17 - Russia’s long-term concerns about China’s rising dominance
• 52:24 - Russia’s diplomatic and military support networks in Latin America and beyond
• 54:00 - Shadow tanker ships, oil sanctions, and economic strategies related to energy
• 55:47 - The geopolitical implications of oil sales, shadow fleets, and global markets
• 57:06 - Russia’s support to Iran: targeting capabilities and strategic assistance
• 58:21 - Ukraine’s recent military developments and regional connections
• 60:59 - Ukraine’s defense industrial capacity and regional alliances
• 62:24 - Russia’s outreach and support to Middle Eastern countries; strategic intentions
• 64:39 - Future outlook: military promotions, strategic planning, and the war’s trajectory

Resources & Links:

• CNA Russia Studies
• Starlink by SpaceX
• RT (Russia Today)
• RAND Report on Russian Satellites
• US Sanctions and Oil Market Data
• Russia’s Shadow Fleet

The first quarter of 2026 still has three weeks to go, but the assumptions and friend group of the People’s Republic of China has changed dramatically.

Recent changes in the assumptions concerning Venezuela, Iran, Japan, and other nations will impact the national security concerns of the West’s greatest challenger on the world stage.

Returning to the Midrats Podcast today from 5-6 PM Eastern to discuss will be Dean Cheng.

Dean is a Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies and Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute.He recently retired after 14 years with the Heritage Foundation, where he was a senior research fellow on Chinese political and security affairs, and wrote on various aspects of Chinese foreign and defense policy.Prior to joining the Heritage Foundation, he was a senior analyst with the China Studies Division (previously, Project Asia) at CNA from 2001-2009. 

Before joining CNA, he was a senior analyst with Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) from 1996-2001. From 1993-1995, he was an analyst with the US Congress’ Office of Technology Assessment in the International Security and Space Division, where he studied the Chinese defense industrial complex.He is the author of the book Cyber Dragon: Inside China’s Information Warfare and Cyber Operations (NY: Praeger Publishing, 2016), as well as a number of papers and book chapters examining various aspects of Chinese security affairs.

Show Links

• Dean Cheng’s article on Chinese military purges
• An Army at Dawn, by Rick Atkinson
• China’s HQ‑9B Defense System Under Scrutiny

Summary

In this episode, Dean Cheng discusses China’s strategic posture, military reforms, cyber capabilities, and the implications of recent global events on China’s long-term plans. We explore China’s economic outlook, military modernization, regional influence, and the impact of purges within the PLA.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Context of Global Tensions
03:01: China’s Strategic Position and Five-Year Plan
07:07: Defense Spending and Global Security Concerns
10:05: China’s Vulnerabilities and Energy Security
11:44: Military Purges and Leadership Control
18:22: Military Readiness and Combat Experience
23:27: Testing Chinese Military Equipment in Conflicts
28:45: Global Arms Market and Strategic Alliances
30:24: Military Culture and Learning from Underperformance
32:57: Training and Realistic Combat Experience
35:40: Cyber Warfare and Electronic Warfare Concerns
38:05: Regional Conflicts and China’s Diplomatic Stance
40:46: China’s Image and Political Warfare
44:48: Shifts in Global Alliances and Economic Influence
47:34: The Importance of Economic Engagement
50:25: China’s Diplomatic Approach to Neighbors
54:16: Cyber Threats and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities

Hard to think of a better time to have a Midrats Podcast Free-for-All.2026 continues to produce more content than we know what to do with, but we’ll give it our best.

Show Links

• CENTCOM’s Epic Fury Day-1 Summary
• LUCAS attack drone
• Intifada Podcast: Hamas in the U.S.
• UK gives a nod for base use
• Sal Mercogliano on the Strait of Hormuz
• Israeli bomb shelter dating app

Summary

Join Sal and Mark as they analyze the recent military operations, geopolitical implications, and strategic considerations surrounding Operation Epic Fury and the broader Middle East tensions. This episode offers in-depth insights into military assets, regional dynamics, and the future of Iran and its neighbors.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction
02:04: Main Focus: Operation Epic Fury and Iran
03:07: Details of US Military Assets Used in the Strike
06:28: Targeting Command and Control Centers in Iran
08:12: Iran’s Military Capabilities and Regional Impact
09:38: Iranian Public Sentiment and Future Opportunities
11:25: Support for Iranian People and Regime Dynamics
13:46: Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Sleeper Cells
16:52: Impact of Expatriates and International Support
18:14: Challenges of Leadership and Control in Iran
20:09: Strategic Goals and Limitations of the Operation
22:02: Analysis of Military and Political Leadership Decisions
25:24: Logistics, Risks, and Future Outlook
28:43: Potential for Further Actions and Regional Stability
31:17: European and Global Reactions to the Strike
34:38: International Responses and NATO’s Role
37:11: Iran’s Response and Proxy Activities
41:54: Intelligence, Misinformation, and Media Challenges
45:18: Implications for US and Allies’ Security
49:25: Operational Successes and Future Risks
54:31: Technological Innovations and Regional Impact
55:57: Humor and Human Element in Military Operations
01:00: Conclusion

So, is this the time to make battleships great again?I would be hard-pressed to think of a better guest to help us explore that question than returning guest, Rob Farley. A starting point for our conversation will be his article from December, The Trump-Class Battleship Summed Up In 1 Word.

Show Links

• The Battleship Book, by Robert Farley’s
• Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce
• Lawyers, Guns, and Money
• Dr. Robert Farley’s X Profile
• Dr. Robert Farley’s Blue Sky Profile
• My thoughts on SLCM-N

Summary

In this episode, Dr. Robert Farley discusses the concept of battleships, their historical significance, and the strategic considerations for modern naval warfare. The conversation covers technological challenges, political implications, and future force structure planning.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to the Battleship Debate
02:31: Historical Context and Modern Relevance of Battleships
07:44: Survivability and Modern Warfare Challenges
13:11: The Role of Nuclear Capabilities in Battleships
20:11: Political and Strategic Implications of Battleship Armament
23:15: Technological Innovations and Future of Naval Warfare
32:36: Design Philosophy and Size of Modern Warships
39:32: Historical Lessons and Future Capabilities
46:03: Political Implications of Naval Procurement
52:30 Shipbuilding Challenges and Future Directions

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph.D. from the University of Washington in 2004. In addition to the book of the moment, The Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), and Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money.

Need a moment to recover from Valentine’s Day? Of course you do!

Showlinks

• Truxtun-Supply Collision
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the Munich Security Conference
• Maritime Action Plan

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark discuss various topics related to national security, starting off with the Truxton-Supply collision. They also delve into Secretary Rubio’s speech regarding NATO relations, the decline of the international order, and the challenges posed by China’s global influence. Additionally, they explore the Maritime Action Plan and its significance for the future of shipbuilding and economic policy in the U.S.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction
02:10: The Truxtun-Supply Collision
11:55: Operational Tempo and Navy Readiness
17:24: Secretary Rubio’s Speech and NATO Relations
27:18: The Decline of the International Order
37:03: China’s Global Influence and Fishing Practices
45:51: Maritime Action Plan and Economic Policy
57:59: Strategic Capabilities and Future of Shipbuilding

Show Links

• The Congress, the Golden Fleet, and the Shipbuilding Industrial Base in 2026

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, Sal and Mark engage with Eric Labs, a senior analyst at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), to discuss the complexities of shipbuilding costs, the role of the CBO in providing independent estimates, and the challenges faced by the U.S. Navy in maintaining and expanding its fleet. Eric shares insights on the differences between CBO and Navy cost estimates, the impact of maintenance on overall ship costs, and the importance of a skilled labor force in shipbuilding. The conversation also touches on the historical context of shipbuilding budgets, congressional appropriations, and the future of naval forces in the face of evolving defense needs.

Dr. Eric Labs is Senior Analyst for Naval Forces and Weapons at the Congressional Budget Office in Washington, D.C. He specializes in issues related to the procurement, budgeting, and sizing of the forces for the Department of the Navy. He received his doctorate in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and graduated from Tufts University, summa cum laude, in 1988. He has worked for the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis in Cambridge, Massachusetts and, from 1994 to 1995, as a Visiting Scholar at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Dr. Labs has been with the Congressional Budget Office since 1995. 

Chapters

00:00: Introduction to the CBO and Eric Labs
03:01: Understanding the Role of the CBO
06:01: Cost Estimation Approaches in Shipbuilding
08:54: Historical Context of CBO Estimates vs Navy Estimates
12:04: Challenges in Shipbuilding Cost Estimates
15:09: The Impact of Maintenance on Ship Costs
18:00: Congressional Budgeting and Shipbuilding Appropriations
20:48: Labor Force Challenges in Shipbuilding
23:58: Future of the U.S. Navy Fleet and Shipbuilding
27:05: Conclusion and Future Considerations

No need to force yourself to head outside in this horrible weather—unless you are in the Free State of Florida where the high is expected to hit 80F or so.

From the Friday National Defense Strategy dump to whatever comes over the transom, we’ve got you covered.

Show Links

• 2026 National Defense Strategy
• Heritage Foundation’s, Tidalwave
• Beans, Bullets, and Black Oil, Rear Adm. Worrall Reed, USN
• Fourth Arm of Defense: Sealift and Maritime Logistics in the Vietnam War, Sal Mercogliano
• USS Zumwalt Underway for First Time Since 2023 After Missile Refit, Sam LaGrone
• 2009, George Soros interviewed by then WEF ‘Young Global Leader’ and future Canadian Deputy Prime Minister, Chrystia Freeland

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, the hosts discuss the recent release of the National Defense Strategy, its implications for U.S. military policy, and the focus on China one of the primary concerns. They also address European defense responsibilities, Canada’s political landscape, and the importance of logistics in military preparedness. The conversation highlights the need for candor within military culture and the future of naval warfare technologies.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Overview
02:45: Airing Grievances: National Defense Strategy Release
07:09: Analysis of National Defense Strategy
12:41: Focus on China: Realistic Approaches
18:31: European Defense Responsibilities24:28: Canada’s Political Landscape and Defense Issues
30:38: Logistics and Military Preparedness
40:48: The Importance of Candor in Military Culture
53:30: Future of Naval Warfare and New Technologies

Is four months too short a turnaround for a guest on Midrats? Not if the topic at hand keeps running to the top of your read board.

From the unending diplomacy responding to the Trump Administration’s unending drive to get Greenland’s geography—and the resulting security—more firmly under American control, to the sitcom-worthy deployment of a couple of dozen “Coalition of the Freezing”—Greenland can’t-stop-won’t-stop from gathering eyeballs and attention.

So, we’re bringing back Elizabeth Buchanan for another visit. We’ll use her recent article in The Spectator as starting off point, A buyer’s guide to Greenland.

Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan is a senior fellow with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and an expert associate of the French Ministry of Armed Forces’ Institute for Strategic Research.Most recently she was Head of Research for the Royal Australian Navy (Department of Defence). Dr Buchanan is co-founder of the polar warfare program (Project 6633) at the Modern War Institute of the West Point Military Academy. Before joining Australia’s Defence Department, Dr. Buchanan was Lecturer of Strategic Studies for the Defence and Strategic Studies Course at the Australian War College.Elizabeth holds a Ph.D. in Russian Arctic Strategy and completed her post-doctoral studies as a Maritime Fellow at the NATO Defense College in Rome. She has published widely on geopolitics, most recently with Australian Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, War on the Rocks, Foreign Policy, Foreign Affairs, The Australian, and The American Conservative.Dr. Buchanan has been a Visiting Scholar with the Brookings Institution and was an analyst with Royal Dutch Shell. Elizabeth has three published books:: Russian Energy Strategy in Asia and Red Arctic: Russian Arctic Strategy under Putin. In addition to, So you want to own Greenland, she also has an upcoming book, Competitive Cooperation at the Ends of the Earth.

Show links:

• So You Want to Own Greenland?: Lessons from the Vikings to Trump.
• Liz’s SEP 2024 visit to Midrats.
• The Unfortunate Greenland Kerfuffle.
• Denmark’s strategic concerns about China and Russia around Greenland, via Nick Solheim.
• Liz on X.

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, the hosts welcome back Dr. Elizabeth Buchanan, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and Center for the National Interest, to discuss the ongoing geopolitical significance of Greenland. The conversation delves into the historical context of U.S.-Greenland relations, particularly in light of recent tensions and discussions surrounding Greenland’s potential independence. Dr. Buchanan emphasizes the importance of understanding Greenland’s strategic position in the Arctic, especially regarding U.S. national security interests and the implications of a changing global landscape, including China’s growing influence. The dialogue also touches on the complexities of Greenland’s relationship with Denmark and the potential for a direct U.S.-Greenland partnership.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Overview of Greenland’s Importance
02:38: Historical Context of U.S.-Greenland Relations
05:52: The 2004 Defense Treaty and Its Implications
12:23: Greenland’s Independence Movement and Future Prospects
31:50: Best Case Scenarios for U.S.-Greenland Relations
32:17: Understanding the Scrappy Spirit of Greenland
39:12: The Geopolitical Landscape: Europe and the U.S.
54:31: Greenland’s Future: Independence or Status Quo?

Summary

In this conversation, the hosts and Palantir’s Head of Defense Mike Gallagher and Head of Shipbuilding and Naval Programs Matt Babin discuss the integration of AI and advanced manufacturing techniques in shipbuilding, particularly focusing on the role of Palantir’s ShipOS in transforming shipyard operations. They explore the generational gap in expertise within the industry, the importance of optimizing workforce efficiency, and the collaboration between NAVSEA and the Maritime Industrial Base Program. The discussion also touches on legislative support needed for modern shipbuilding and the challenges faced in submarine maintenance and production.

Showlinks

• U.S. Navy Partners with Palantir to Modernize Shipbuilding Supply Chain and Accelerate Shipbuilding
• The Maritime Industrial Base Program
• How big is the Columbia SSBN?

Takeaways

• AI and software can enhance traditional shipbuilding processes.
• ShipOS integrates various aspects of shipyard operations.
• Bridging the generational gap is crucial for shipbuilding.
• Workforce efficiency can be optimized through better planning.
• Legislative support is needed for consistent funding in shipbuilding.
• Software tools can help decision-makers understand costs better.
• The shipbuilding industry must attract younger talent.

Chapters

00:00: The Future of Shipbuilding and AI Integration
03:55: Transforming Shipyard Operations with ShipOS
10:31: Bridging Generational Gaps in Shipbuilding Expertise
12:00: Optimizing Workforce Efficiency in Shipyards
18:24: Advanced Manufacturing Techniques in Shipbuilding
20:48: Leveraging Commercial Technology for Naval Advantage
25:51: Collaboration Between NAVSEA and the Maritime Industrial Base Program
33:42: Legislative Support for Modern Shipbuilding
44:32: Addressing Challenges in Submarine Maintenance and Production

With a few days now behind us, most of the general facts are in on our raid into Caracas, Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro and, it appears, his wife as well.

Now that Maduro is a guest of the Southern District of New York, it is time to not just look at some of the details of the buildup and execution of this raid, but the initial lessons we can take from it, and what it means in the larger strategic environment.

Summary

In this episode of Midrats, Mark and Sal discuss the recent military operation in Venezuela, reflecting on its execution and implications for national security. They explore the potential for Venezuela’s recovery, the role of governance, and the international reactions to the operation. The conversation also touches on the economic impact of Venezuelan oil, China’s influence in the region, and the effectiveness of international organizations like the UN.

Takeaways

• The military operation in Venezuela was well-planned and executed.
• The ages of service members involved ranged from 20 to 49.
• Venezuela has the potential for economic recovery if governance improves.
• China’s influence in Latin America poses challenges for U.S. interests.
• The UN’s effectiveness in international law is questioned.
• Venezuelan oil could impact global energy prices.
• The operation sends a strong signal to adversaries.
• Governance and rule of law are crucial for Venezuela’s future.
• The U.S. military’s capabilities are unmatched globally.
• The situation in Venezuela is a test for U.S. foreign policy.

Chapters

00:00: New Year, New Beginnings
02:11: Operation in Venezuela: A Military Success
09:36: Venezuela’s Future: Opportunities and Challenges
16:25: International Reactions and Implications
23:08: The Role of Governance in Venezuela’s Recovery
28:16: The Economic Impact of Venezuelan Oil
36:38: China’s Influence and Global Fishing Rights
43:17: The UN and International Law: A Critical View
48:38: Looking Ahead: The Path for Venezuela