MNI FedSpeak Podcast

U.S. inflation expectations are not contained despite officials assurances to the contrary, which means inflation could quickly resume rising and climb above 4% before the end of the year, says Berkeley economist and SF Fed adviser Yuriy Gorodnichenko, who recently presented a paper at the Fed Board's 2nd Thomas Laubach conference. This will put a Fed in a bind that not only prevents them from cutting interest rates but my even force them to hike, he told MNI.

Former Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker discusses the outlook for interest rate policy and the economy amid the challenge of volatile trade wars, as well as his concerns about the expansion of the Fed's powers in conducting credit policy over time.

ECB economist explains why China might reroute trade to Europe in a higher degree than during the trade tensions in 2018

Ex-Dallas Fed Adviser Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks the U.S. economy was already in recession even before Trump's tariffs hit. Now, she believes the Fed is making a mistake by keeping interest rates steady. She is also concerned about threats to the dollar's safe-have status.

Former Ontario forecasting manager and Oxford Economics Canada analyst Tony Stillo says prior cuts to neutral and concern about tariff inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold.

Seth Carpenter, former deputy director the Fed board's division of monetary affairs, thinks the central bank will barely be able to squeeze in another rate cut this year if at all before tariffs boost inflation for a while, leaving policymakers on hold until well into 2026.

Nobel Laureate and MIT economist Simon Johnson said he's worried about the growth- and institution-damaging actions of the Trump administration, but relieved he seems willing to leave monetary policy to the Federal Reserve. 

The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates on hold through much of this year as it seeks clarity on the economic impact of Donald Trump's policies.

The more the central bankers stress uncertainty of the of the outlook the more likely they are to enact easier monetary policy, Bank of France senior economist Klodiana Istrefi told MNI.

In her paper 'Interest rate uncertainty and firm decisions' Istrefi and co-authors defined "interest rate uncertainty" as the difference between predictions made in surveys by professional forecasters and actual outcomes.