MNI FedSpeak Podcast

SEC Economist Samim Ghamami says the neutral rate of interest has risen because of higher U.S. budget deficits, meaning the Fed is likely to cut rates less than otherwise in this cycle.

Investor Ed Devlin says Canada's weak economy needs a quick end to tight monetary policy, and a weaker dollar is no deterrent to central bank officials.

Former Fed board economist Joseph Gagnon thinks President-Elect Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies will push up inflation again, forcing the Fed to halt rate cuts.

The inflation expectations of eurozone consumers are surprisingly in line with macroeconomic developments and can provide a useful reality check to professional forecasts, European Central Bank economist Omiros Kouvavas told MNI.

“Consumer expectations feed into consumers’ actions,” Kouvavas told an MNI podcast, adding that he expected them to continue to track the macroeconomic situation with a lag.

The link to the ECB's Article: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202407.en.html#toc19

 The inflationary impact on the eurozone from potential Middle East oil disruptions would have “half the firepower” of the 2022 gas crisis, in the absence of a “catastrophic scenario” involving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a senior European Commission energy analyst told MNI. 

Bob Dugan, chief economist of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., discusses the industry's capacity limits and falling interest rates.

The Federal Reserve can't sustain 50 basis point rate cuts if the economy and the labor market remain strong and inflation pressures linger, ex-NY Fed executive Ricks Roberts told MNI. 

Ricardo Reis, an LSE professor who advises the Richmond Fed, the Bank of England and the Riksbank, tells MNI the Fed is likely to take an incremental approach to rate cuts. 

Former Fed board governor Jeremy Stein tells MNI he thinks inflation will be sticky around 2.5%, forcing the Fed to be gradual about the pace of rate cuts barring some serious deterioration in the labor market. 

Tony Stillo, Canadian economist at Oxford Economics and a former Ontario forecasting official, says the Bank of Canada will space out rate cuts given lingering wage and price inflation.