Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump’s tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China’s fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA playoffs too.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:32) - NBA Playoffs and Initial Discussion

(01:18) - Tariff Vice and Economic Concerns

(02:07) - Impact of Tariffs on US Economy

(07:34) - Recession Fears and Employment Data

(09:58) - Trump's Trade Policies and Market Reactions

(17:38) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

(28:29) - Investment Opportunities in Europe

(30:00) - Investment Opportunities in Europe and Brazil

(30:51) - Challenges and Risks in Brazil and Turkey

(32:19) - Overseas Investing: Macro Tailwinds and Policy

(33:32) - Turnaround Stories in Emerging Markets

(34:44) - The Potential of Frontier Markets

(38:08) - Geopolitical Insights and North Korea

(45:34) - Agricultural Commodities and Market Trends

(49:43) - The Dollar's Impact on Trade and Investments

(52:03) - NBA Trades and the Cleveland Cavaliers

(55:46) - Podcast Conclusion and Contact Information

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Referenced:

Pine Cone Macro: https://www.pineconemacro.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

In this wide-ranging episode, Jacob and Rob check in on markets, discuss the issue of Federal Reserve independence, and somehow end up talking about the future of the Catholic Church. We are large – we contain multitudes!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(02:55) - Market Trends and Economic Indicators

(04:15) - Freight Data and Economic Concerns

(07:42) - Historical Context: Market Reactions

(16:44) - The Fed's Role and Independence

(26:40) - Trump's Economic Approval Ratings

(27:29) - Debating Economic vs Cultural Factors

(29:45) - Hypothetical Scenarios for Jerome Powell

(34:01) - Global Political Shifts and Far-Right Movements

(37:38) - The Future of the Catholic Church

(45:48) - Resurgence of Religion Among Young People

(50:04) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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American Airlines can’t keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes

(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines

(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob

(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs

(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation

(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market

(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War

(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations

(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capital

(22:46) - Historical Context and Globalization

(26:24) - Trump's Desire for a Deal with China

(27:29) - US-China Economic Interdependence

(31:03) - Challenges in International Investment

(33:42) - Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

(37:16) - Corporate Responses to Tariffs

(42:54) - Impact on Small and Medium Businesses

(47:23) - Geopolitical and Economic Outlook

(52:19) - Closing Remarks and Future Plans

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Notice: This is the last episode that we'll be cross-posting on the JShap Show Channel!

For details on this episode and further off the wall updates, follow Geopolitical Cousins wherever you get your podcasts!!

Helpful Link - https://feeds.captivate.fm/geopolitical-cousins/

Vance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics

(11:45) – Biofuels

(14:32) – Debt/land prices

(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves

(30:42) – Will USDA have power over processing?

(32:30) – Bitcoin

(47:50) – Making the meaning they lack

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to first Jacob/Vance episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-shifts-from-nato-to-canada-the-world-is/id1463771076?i=1000693451758

Vance’s website: https://www.vancecrowe.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit

(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions

(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies

(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics

(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis

(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War

(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions

(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade

(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations

(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate

(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments

(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing

(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan

(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan

(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken

(54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation

(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths

(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets

(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia

(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy

(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle

(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court

(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right

(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics

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Referenced in the Show:

Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. To buy products for higher prices than we could have bought them. And should we win the day, the Second of April will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the United States declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! We are going to conquer Greenland! Today, we celebrate our Liberation Day!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:54) - Trade Policies and Tariffs

(05:56) - Impact of Tariffs on Businesses

(16:01) - Congressional Role in Tariff Decisions

(21:53) - Sanctions vs. Tariffs

(28:07) - Shifting Financial Sanctions and Tariffs

(29:32) - US-Venezuela Relations: Regime Change and Mixed Signals

(31:22) - Trump's Foreign Policy Goals with Russia

(32:30) - Impact of Sanctions on US Domestic Politics

(37:59) - USMCA Renegotiation and Tariff Strategies

(42:44) - Nearshoring Challenges and Critical Minerals

(47:33) - Currency Adjustments and Global Trade Dynamics

(52:04) - UK's Trade and Foreign Policy Post-Brexit

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Referenced in the Show:

Link to Rachel’s Substack: https://rziemba.substack.com/

Link to Peterson report mentioned in podcast: https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/evidence-costs-and-benefits-economic-sanctions

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob welcomes Georgi Engelbrecht on to the podcast for the first time to discuss the importance of the Philippines, why it matters, its relationship with China, and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry that is reverberating throughout the democratic world.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(02:22) - Life and Work in the Philippines

(04:27) - Geopolitical Importance of the Philippines

(05:49) - Historical and Cultural Context of the Philippines

(08:56) - Philippines-China Relations and South China Sea Disputes

(20:10) - Duterte's Foreign Policy and Its Impact

(28:12) - Navigating US-Philippines Relations

(28:54) - Economic Ties and Trade Dynamics

(29:57) - Strategic Alliances and Regional Security

(34:09) - Domestic Challenges and Economic Growth

(36:58) - Political Drama and Duterte's ICC Trial

(43:26) - Public Perception and Future Implications

(52:23) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

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Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) – Profit recession

(13:10) – Copper

(16:32) – The direction of the USD

(20:34) – Multipolar investing

(28:11) – India and Shorting

(37:47) – Parisian vibe check

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

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