Notice: This is the last episode that we'll be cross-posting on the JShap Show Channel!

For details on this episode and further off the wall updates, follow Geopolitical Cousins wherever you get your podcasts!!

Helpful Link - https://feeds.captivate.fm/geopolitical-cousins/

Vance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics

(11:45) – Biofuels

(14:32) – Debt/land prices

(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves

(30:42) – Will USDA have power over processing?

(32:30) – Bitcoin

(47:50) – Making the meaning they lack

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to first Jacob/Vance episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-shifts-from-nato-to-canada-the-world-is/id1463771076?i=1000693451758

Vance’s website: https://www.vancecrowe.com/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit

(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions

(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies

(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics

(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis

(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War

(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions

(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade

(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations

(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate

(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments

(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing

(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan

(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan

(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken

(54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation

(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths

(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets

(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia

(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy

(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle

(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court

(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right

(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics

--

Referenced in the Show:

Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. To buy products for higher prices than we could have bought them. And should we win the day, the Second of April will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the United States declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! We are going to conquer Greenland! Today, we celebrate our Liberation Day!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:54) - Trade Policies and Tariffs

(05:56) - Impact of Tariffs on Businesses

(16:01) - Congressional Role in Tariff Decisions

(21:53) - Sanctions vs. Tariffs

(28:07) - Shifting Financial Sanctions and Tariffs

(29:32) - US-Venezuela Relations: Regime Change and Mixed Signals

(31:22) - Trump's Foreign Policy Goals with Russia

(32:30) - Impact of Sanctions on US Domestic Politics

(37:59) - USMCA Renegotiation and Tariff Strategies

(42:44) - Nearshoring Challenges and Critical Minerals

(47:33) - Currency Adjustments and Global Trade Dynamics

(52:04) - UK's Trade and Foreign Policy Post-Brexit

--

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Rachel’s Substack: https://rziemba.substack.com/

Link to Peterson report mentioned in podcast: https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/evidence-costs-and-benefits-economic-sanctions

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Jacob welcomes Georgi Engelbrecht on to the podcast for the first time to discuss the importance of the Philippines, why it matters, its relationship with China, and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry that is reverberating throughout the democratic world.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(02:22) - Life and Work in the Philippines

(04:27) - Geopolitical Importance of the Philippines

(05:49) - Historical and Cultural Context of the Philippines

(08:56) - Philippines-China Relations and South China Sea Disputes

(20:10) - Duterte's Foreign Policy and Its Impact

(28:12) - Navigating US-Philippines Relations

(28:54) - Economic Ties and Trade Dynamics

(29:57) - Strategic Alliances and Regional Security

(34:09) - Domestic Challenges and Economic Growth

(36:58) - Political Drama and Duterte's ICC Trial

(43:26) - Public Perception and Future Implications

(52:23) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) – Profit recession

(13:10) – Copper

(16:32) – The direction of the USD

(20:34) – Multipolar investing

(28:11) – India and Shorting

(37:47) – Parisian vibe check

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Want more details?

GO CHECK OUT THE GEOPOLITICAL COUSINS POD HERE: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

You can also such look up "Geopolitical Cousins" on your favorite podcast provider.

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(31:00) - Turkey

(46:00) – Indonesia

(58:00) – China

(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

You can also just look up "Geopolitical Cousins" and it'll come up. We're the only ones. This is it. Welcome to the goat rodeo! The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Approach and Precepts

(11:40) – Net Assessments

(19:24) – Multipolarity

(35:09) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy

(43:24) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(48:22) – Inflation and pain thresholds

(53:07) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies

--

Referenced in the Show:

NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--

Trump’s tariff policy is all over the place - Ton, off, then back on again. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and Jacob' sister is even texting him about stocks. China? Barely flinching. Europe? Actually getting its act together, with Germany and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, Turkey’s making moves, the Kurds are recalibrating, and Iran’s back in the mix.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:40) - Sister Index

(05:40) - Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Policies

(08:46) - Trump Administration's Policy Analysis

(14:38) - Lumber Test Case

(24:52) - China's Response to US Tariffs

(34:18) - Germany's Defense and Fiscal Policies

(35:08) - Poland's Military and Political Moves

(36:39) - France's Political Climate

(38:02) - Europe's Industrial and Manufacturing Strength

(40:48) - EU's Strategic Moves and Turkey Relations

(46:42) - Italy's Political Dynamics and Starlink Controversy

(48:41) - Poland's Geopolitical Strategy

(53:50) - Turkey's Position and Regional Developments

(01:05:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

--

Referenced in the Show:

FP article link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/europe-heavy-industry-trump-us-competition/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

CI Site: cognitive.investments

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

--