Crosspost! Shaun Haney and Jacob use the global football tournament as a springboard to discuss nationalism, international institutions, and the role sport plays in bringing people together, while acknowledging that politics inevitably follows major global events.

Shapiro says that international sporting events can provide valuable insight into broader geopolitical trends while also serving as a rare source of optimism.

--

Referenced in the Show:

Frontlines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wckZi7rZU3U

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Hamidreza Azizi joins the show once more to ask a deceptively simple question: is the war over? Azizi argues the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is deliberately vague and fully reversible - sanctions relief hinges on a phone call, the $300 billion investment fund is unfunded, and both Iran and the US are already renegotiating its terms through actions, not words. They dig into Iran's Strait of Hormuz fee gambit, China's calculated non-intervention, Turkey's regional rise, and 80% inflation battering Iran domestically. Azizi's verdict: Iran emerges more resilient, not more powerful, and... you'll have to listen to get the rest!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:49) - Book Timing and Relevance

(03:49) - Is the War Over

(05:23) - Iranian View of Ongoing War

(11:23) - MOU Favorable to Iran

(12:56) - MOU Details and Reversibility

(18:48) - Strait of Hormuz Fee Debate

(21:05) - Iran Strategy and Leverage Clock

(27:57) - Regional Order in Transition

(35:46) - China and Great Power Dynamics

(42:46) - Turkey and Israel Threat Perception

(46:10) - Iran Domestic Fallout and 60 Day Outlook

--

Referenced in the Show:

Hamidreza's Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/

Hamidreza on X - https://x.com/HamidRezaAz

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Jacob Shapiro sits down with Victor Hernandez, a Mexican national security analyst, to stress-test his own optimism about Mexico. Hernandez argues the army now runs eight ministries' budgets, can't out-spy the cartels, and may face limited US drone strikes Mexico has no way to resist. El Mencho's death looks more like an ambush than a victory. Nearshoring pencils out on a spreadsheet - until corruption and parallel taxation eat the margin. A bracing case for what happens if Jacob's wrong.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro and Framing

(01:29) - Meet Victor Hernandez

(02:44) - Victor Background and Career

(05:00) - Army Trust and Corruption

(07:38) - Blowback and Patriotism

(10:25) - Morena and Military Power

(15:29) - Future of Militarization

(17:24) - Army vs Cartels Capabilities

(22:26) - Will the US Intervene

(26:26) - Drone Strikes Fallout

(29:32) - Cuba Sequencing and Allies

(33:04) - Trade Dependence and Diversification

(39:45) - El Mencho and Cartel Fragmentation

(44:14) - Investing and Nearshoring Risks

(51:05) - What If Victor Is Wrong

(54:24) - Closing and Outro

--

Referenced in the Show:

Victor Hernandez - https://www.linkedin.com/in/v%C3%ADctor-hern%C3%A1ndez-979002b0?

ILEES - https://www.ilees.mx/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

You might not realize it, but Jacob also appears on a few other podcasts regularly! Jacob is a regular guest RealAgriculture’s Frontlines podcast, hosted by Shaun Hane. Shaun and Jacob discuss geopolitics from an agricultural lens, exploring how the world reacts to the extremely fine-tuned world of ag.

Many analysts expected a prolonged disruption in the Strait to trigger severe economic fallout. Instead, oil prices have risen, inflation pressures have intensified, and shortages are emerging in some regions, yet markets remain resilient. Jacob argues that oil’s influence on the broader economy is no longer as dominant as it was during previous energy crises. Strategic reserves, alternative supply routes, and new infrastructure projects have helped cushion the impact, even as consumers face higher fuel and food costs. At the same time, he points to inflation as the political challenge that could ultimately shape U.S. policy. While employment numbers remain relatively strong, Jacob contends that household finances are under increasing pressure.

--

Referenced in the Show:

Frontlines- https://www.realagriculture.com/2026/06/from-hormuz-to-ai-competing-forces-are-driving-the-global-economy-frontlines-june-2026/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Florida produced 242 million boxes of oranges in 2003. This year, the USDA is forecasting 12 million... a decline of more than 95% in less than a generation. Jacob sits down with journalist Alexander Sammon, who wrote a definitive autopsy of the Florida orange industry, to understand how disease, globalization, and real estate swallowed one of America's most iconic crops. Scratch the surface of orange juice, and you find geopolitics, government mandates, and the full sweep of 20th century American economic history.

Alex's article below!

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Schedule Update

(00:26) - Meet Alex Salmon

(01:18) - Orange Juice Meets Geopolitics

(02:48) - Florida Orange Collapse

(04:27) - Disease and Perfect Storm

(06:0) -6 Can Science Save Citrus

(10:37) - Farmers Pivot to Real Estate

(14:28) - Nostalgia for Old Florida

(16:58) - Brazil Takes the Baton

(24:25) - Oranges Through History

(26:50) - Canonizing a Classic

(27:39) - Oranges Arrive in Florida

(28:52) - Railroads and Early Boom

(30:02) - War Creates Orange Juice

(30:35) - Geopolitics in Your Glass

(34:02) - Advertising Makes a Staple

(35:49) - Greening and Structural Cracks

(37:26) - Globalization Hollowing Out

(39:23) - Wall Street Consolidation

(42:54) - Juice Backlash and Millennials

(45:16) - Future of Oranges Worldwide

(49:51) - Next Project and Farewell

--

Referenced in the Show:

Who Killed the Florida Orange? - https://slate.com/business/2026/04/florida-state-orange-food-houses-real-estate.html

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Ioan Grillo has spent decades on the ground in Mexico watching the cartels evolve, and his assessment is sobering. Violence has shifted form more than it's receded. Governments change rhetoric, not reality. The U.S. is more involved than anyone admits. And Sheinbaum is threading a needle between Washington's pressure and Mexican sovereignty. A conversation you won't find anywhere else.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:33) - Name Pronunciation

(02:46) - How Cartels Evolved

(03:35) - Violence Plateau Explained

(08:04) - Homicide Stats vs Reality

(10:01) - Sheinbaum Security Strategy

(14:28) - US Role and Intervention

(15:54) - Trump Era Cartel Priority

(20:51) - Sovereignty and Mixed Views

(24:38) - Extraditions and Double Talk

(27:11) - US Role In Mexico

(28:23) - CIA Tactics Debate

(29:11) - Bukele Model Questions

(30:22) - Why Bukele Rose

(34:15) - Crackdown Tradeoffs

(37:53) - Mexico Geography Limits

(39:36) - What Tough Looks Like

(43:19) - Journalism Under Threat

(47:49) - Staying Sane Reporting

(53:01) - Closing And Links

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Our favorite military analyst, Sim Tack, returns to the pod to assess three different conflicts reshaping global security. In Ukraine, territorial gains are tactical, not strategic; Russian economic endurance remains the real variable. In Iran, a degraded military has reached a stalemate the U.S. and Israel cannot break without regime change. And in Mali, a jihadist advance is threatening to create a new territorial caliphate... with Russia's failed security guarantee quietly accelerating the collapse.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:08) - Sim is Back

(01:56) - Is the World Overwhelming?

(04:23) - AI Briefings and Limits

(06:10) - Drones and War Evolution

(09:44) - Top Conflicts to Watch

(11:59) - Ukraine Strikes and Oil Leverage

(13:53) - Reality Check on Initiative

(18:26) - Zelensky Endgame Options

(23:28) - Russia Staying Power and Economy

(26:15) - NATO Threat Question

(26:46) - Russia Threat Timeline

(27:53) - Can Russia Fight NATO

(29:30) - Satellite Buildup Reality

(30:23) - Europe Rearms Narrative

(35:11) - Asymmetric Threat Debate

(37:06) - Drones Cyber Article Five

(41:11) - US Munitions Bottleneck

(47:39) - Iran Stalemate Logic

(50:27) - How Neutered Is Iran

(53:46) - Mali Jihadist Surge

(57:17) - Closing Thanks Outro

--

Sim's Work:

AllSource Analysis: https://allsourceanalysis.com/work/sim-tack/

Linkedin: https://be.linkedin.com/in/sim-tack-081b313b

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Jacob sits down for a fantastic conversation with author and analyst Dror Poleg to explore how AI is reshaping work, value, and the economy. They unpack why AI is better understood as a medium than a tool, what the shift from tangible to intangible assets means for investors, and why the dynamics of show business now govern every industry - from oil to politics.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(01:27) - Twitter and the Text Commons

(04:16) - AI Metaphors Tool or Medium

(07:58) - How LLMs Actually Think

(16:04) - Analog to Digital Generations

(17:39) - Work Capital and Interchangeability

(23:39) - OnlyFans Economy and Discovery

(28:18) - Nonlinear Economy Tangible vs Intangible

(35:45) - Is This Universal China Too

(37:43) - China Fears Volatility

(38:11) - COVID Strategy Contrast

(40:39) - Censorship Arms Race

(42:05) - AI Slips Control

(43:09) - Energy Limits Return

(44:52) - Automation And Work

(47:22) - All Swans Black

(52:36) - Politics Need New Story

(57:50) - Cities For New Economy

(01:03:18) - Warp Speed Government

(01:05:00) - Israel Modern War Paradox

(01:12:18) - Closing And Credits

--

Referenced in the Show:

Dror Poleg's Site and piece referenced - https://www.drorpoleg.com/forty-in-quarantine/

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Peru has had seven presidents in nine years, homicides have nearly doubled, and extortion is up sixfold - and yet the country just tried to buy $3.5 billion worth of F-16s. Elohim Monard returns to diagnose a political crisis that doubles as a case study in great-power failure. From "gross diplomacy" on social media to a runoff framed as "cancer versus HIV," Peru is caught between Washington and Beijing with no strategy of its own.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:37) - Gross Diplomacy Sparks

(01:51) - US Diplomatic Decline

(05:17) - Trump Centralized Foreign Policy

(07:08) - Peru F-16 Deal Controversy

(12:28) - Why F-16s Make No Sense

(17:13) - Peru Budget and Military Inertia

(21:43) - Peru Election and Crime Surge

(24:32) - Fujimori Question Setup

(24:58) - Fujimori Paradox

(26:38) - Instability Origins

(28:32) - Democracy Tradeoffs

(30:43) - Sanchez and Castillo

(33:51) - Cleavages Over Policy

(36:57) - US China Reality Check

(39:03) - Beyond Great Powers

(45:07) - Inequality Fuels Populism

(49:52) - No Offers From Washington

(51:28) - Latin America Leadership Void

(56:44) - Closing and Signoff

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--

Josh Linville,VP of Fertilizer at StoneX, chats with Jacob about the global fertilizer crisis triggered by disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. They cover why the Middle East dominates fertilizer supply, why the US can't easily fill the gap, which crops and regions are most at risk, and what farmers should do right now to protect themselves.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:15) - War Context and Stakes

(02:22) - Fertilizer 101 Big Three

(03:36) - Why Hormuz Matters

(04:55) - Middle East Gas Advantage

(06:12) - Why US Lags Production

(07:56) - Capacity Crunch Explained

(10:47) - China and State Strategy

(13:11) - Build Plants or Reserve

(16:25) - Investment Reality Check

(19:00) - Food Security Imperative

(21:18) - Seasonality and Timing

(23:36) - Global Impacts and Grain

(25:33) - Fertilizer Booking Gaps

(26:44) - Survey Skepticism

(28:59) - Global Risk Hotspots

(30:43) - Yield and Protein Impacts

(32:35) - Fertilizer Supercycles

(36:05) - New Normal or Oversupply

(39:47) - Pinch Points Russia

(41:38) - Beyond the Big Three

(43:19) - Organic Alternatives Limits

(46:33) - Carbon Premium Reality

(48:32) - Key Takeaways Farmers

(50:42) - Wrap Up and Credits

--

Referenced in the Show:

--

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

--