Jacob and Rob reunite after a long break, tracing the threads between a dizzying run of global events and markets that seem strangely calm. Jacob frames the conversation with parallels to the 1920s, questioning whether today’s mix of political volatility, speculative fervor, and rapid technological change echoes past cycles of boom and fracture. Alongside Rob’s market perspective, he explores AI’s slowdown, labor shortages, and the looming electricity crunch, before pulling the discussion toward deeper questions of resilience, innovation, and Bitcoin’s place in geopolitics.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

(00:37) - Catching Up with Rob

(01:12) - Geopolitical and Market Overview

(02:16) - Market Sentiment and Fundamentals

(07:24) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Patterns

(10:59) - Challenges in the Current Market

(18:48) - CapEx Cycles and Future Projections

(31:32) - Energy Infrastructure and Grid Issues

(39:56) - Questioning the Centralized Grid

(40:46) - Geopolitics and Energy Access

(41:37) - Historical Parallels and Government Intervention

(43:20) - The Future of Energy Consumption

(48:25) - AI Adoption and Market Expectations

(58:30) - Bitcoin and Geopolitical Shifts

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro sits down with Jacek Bartosiak, founder of Strategy&Future, to discuss Russia’s drone incursions into Polish airspace and their broader implications. From Warsaw’s perspective, deterrence has failed, pushing debate toward a “politics of punishment.” Bartosiak outlines the fracturing of NATO credibility, the rise of an Intermarium bloc from the Baltics to Turkey, and Ukraine’s surprising military innovations. Together, they explore how Poland, Ukraine, and regional allies may reshape Europe’s security landscape amid U.S. retreat.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:22) - Current Geopolitical Tensions in Poland

(01:07) - Historical Context: The Intermarium Concept

(02:04) - Polish Perspective on Western Media

(02:58) - Russian Drone Incursion into Poland

(05:41) - Poland's Strategic Debate and NATO's Role

(10:40) - Ukraine's Military and Strategic Position

(14:21 US-European Relations and Trump's Policies

(24:55) - Future of NATO and Eastern European Alliances

(27:43) - Geopolitical Tensions in Eastern Europe

(28:35) - NATO's Role and Perceived Weakness

(29:43) - Poland's Strategic Position and Military Capabilities

(31:42) - Putin's Miscalculations and Regional Dynamics

(33:48) - Historical Context and Turkey's Role

(36:48) - China's Influence and Future Scenarios

(48:06) - Belarus and the Future of Eastern Europe

(51:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Regional Stability

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Referenced in the Show:

Strategy and Future - https://patronite.pl/p/strategy-and-future/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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After a month-long hiatus recovering from illness, Jacob Shapiro returns to the podcast joined by recurring guest Elohim Monard. Together, they examine the transactional nature of U.S.–Latin America relations, debating whether the region is part of a declining American empire and how leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Lula navigate Washington’s shifting policies. Their discussion ranges from Brazil’s geopolitical role to Venezuela’s fragility, highlighting the Latin Americanization of U.S. politics and the uncertain trajectory of American power

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro & Personal Update

(00:59) - Elohim and Conversando de Política

(02:46) - Discussion on US-Latin America Relations

(03:51) - The Decline of the American Empire

(19:58) - Brazil's Role in Latin America

(38:01) - US Foreign Policy Contradictions

(38:58) - Historical Context of US Alliances

(39:36) - China's Strategic Interests

(39:52) - US Transactional Relationships

(41:04) - Latin America's Shift Towards China

(41:58) - Colombia's Balancing Act

(43:27) - Peru's Growing Chinese Influence

(45:45) - US-Latin America Relations: A Historical Perspective

(47:45) - The Latin Americanization of US Politics

(51:17) - Soft Dictatorships and Media Relations

(01:00:07) - US Military Actions in Latin America

(01:06:10) - The Future of US-Latin America Relations

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Referenced in the Show:

Elohim's Podcast - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob and Rob dig into Trump’s firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, exposing the political theater surrounding government data. They explore labor hoarding, CPI distortions, and the fragility of public statistical institutions in a polarized, AI-saturated world. The conversation spans historical context, philosophical takes on truth and data, and the coming war for proprietary information. They close with a baffling shift in U.S.-India trade policy—and a call for help understanding what the hell is going on.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:44) - Employment Data

(02:42) - Trump's Reaction and Bureau of Labor Statistics

(05:07) - Challenges in Measuring Employment

(12:24) - Historical Context and Political Interference

(21:06) - Impact of Data Quality on AI and Public Trust

(27:29) - Speculation on the Future of Data Commoditization

(29:02) - The Decline of Respect for Objective Data

(31:01) - Historical Perspectives on Data and Statistics

(32:36) - The French Example of Data Collection and Secularism

(34:05) - The Impact of AI on Information and Truth

(36:35) - The Value of Proprietary Information in the Age of AI

(44:36) - Historical Parallels and the Power of Information

(49:43) - US-India Trade Relations and Geopolitical Strategy

(56:03) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro sits down with Luke Gromen for a wide-ranging discussion about AI’s disruption, the U.S. fiscal outlook, and global power dynamics. Jacob noted that AI is rapidly commoditizing data and could upend white-collar industries, but he and Luke agreed that intuition and discerning quality data points remain critical. They dug into Europe’s strategic weaknesses, the U.S.-China rivalry, and vulnerabilities in supply chains like rare earths. On the U.S. fiscal front, Luke argued that the government must financially repress bondholders, with stablecoins potentially becoming a tool for yield curve control. They closed with a look at Bitcoin’s growing role as a “neutral reserve asset.”

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:17) - The Impact of AI on Research and Content Creation

(05:18) - Economic Predictions and Intuitive Analysis

(11:38) - Concerns About AI and Future Job Markets

(16:45) - Geopolitical Surprises and Strategic Incompetence

(23:14) - US-China Relations and Rare Earth Vulnerabilities

(30:14) - Fiscal and Monetary Health of the United States

(27:00) - US-China Relations Again

(31:09) - Restructuring Debt and Inflation Concerns

(32:17) - Housing Market and Inflation Dynamics

(33:45) - Economic Policies and Market Reactions

(38:57) - Stable Coins and US Fiscal Strategy

(50:30) - Bitcoin as a Reserve Asset

(01:00:18) - Investment Advice and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob interviews Dr. Van Jackson, an international relations scholar specializing in East Asian and Pacific security. They discuss the accelerating pace and volatility of U.S. foreign policy, characterizing Trump-era actions as part of a broader counter-revolutionary, oligarchic project. Van critiques both major U.S. parties and highlights the risk of diversionary wars as legitimacy crises grow. They explore the geopolitics of Iran, Israel, and China, and conclude with insights on North Korea and potential U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea, outlining a rare “win-win-win” scenario for all parties on the Korean Peninsula.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:52) - Discussion on US Power and Global Politics

(08:30) - Middle East Policy and US-Israel Relations

(16:30) - Defining Fascism and White Nationalism

(23:32) - Trump's Base and Political Dynamics

(30:07) - Potential Diversionary Conflicts and Foreign Policy

(35:19) - The Inevitability of War with China

(35:52) - China's Strategic Interests in Taiwan and the South China Sea

(36:49) - The Role of Allies in US-China Relations

(38:25) - The Controversy Over Arming Allies

(40:57) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Its Impact on Alliances

(42:56) - Japan and South Korea's Dilemma

(46:42) - The Future of US Hegemony and Global Alliances

(51:01) - The Role of the Democratic Party in US Politics

(58:52) - North Korea's Nuclear Deterrent and US Relations

(01:05:15) - Potential US Troop Withdrawal from South Korea

(01:08:49) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob welcomes economic policy expert Mike Konczal for a wide-ranging conversation on American capitalism, industrial policy, and the evolving role of the state. They explore how the Biden administration’s economic agenda challenges decades of neoliberal orthodoxy, discuss the implications of increased public investment, and examine what it means to have a “pro-worker” economy. Konczal brings deep insight into the politics and pragmatics of economic reform, offering a nuanced look at the shifting landscape of U.S. economic policymaking.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:17) - Disclaimer and Encouragement to Listen

(01:13) - Starting the Conversation: Economy and Tariffs

(01:34) - Discussing Richard Rorty and Substack

(04:31) - The 2025 Tax Act: Key Points and Implications

(07:45) - Healthcare Market Rework and Medicaid Cuts

(10:57) - Energy Market Changes and Green Energy

(13:38) - Immigration Policies and ICE Funding

(18:11) - Balancing Criticism with Positive Aspects

(27:15) - Economic Shockwaves and the Republican Party

(27:39) - Market Reactions and Fiscal Policies

(28:30) - Deficit and US Debt Perspectives

(30:14) - Healthcare Cuts and Fiscal Impact

(34:04) - Tariffs and Market Uncertainty

(39:53) - Inflation and Interest Rates

(45:54) - Future Economic Strategies and Affordability

(52:41) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Mike's Website + Book: https://www.mikekonczal.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob and Rob Larity dive deep into U.S. interest rate dynamics, focusing on Jerome Powell, Trump’s criticism of the Fed, and the potential political and market-driven forces affecting rate decisions. They explore Fed mechanics, historical precedent for presidential interference, and potential appointments like Scott Bessent. They also examine the inflationary impact of trade policy, tariff theatrics, and global economic slowdown signals. The episode concludes with Rob’s investment outlook—bearish on bonds, cautious on equities, and optimistic about international and niche small-cap opportunities.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:13) - Discussion on Interest Rates and Political Interference

(01:29) - Casual Conversation and Personal Updates

(02:54) - Focus on Jerome Powell and Fed Criticism

(09:54) - Mechanics of the Federal Reserve System

(14:55) - Historical Context and Presidential Influence on the Fed

(25:35) - Scott Bessant's Role and Potential Impact

(33:58) - Critique of Janet Yellen's Bond Strategy

(35:02) - Challenges of Managing National Debt

(35:40) - Market Reactions and Yield Predictions

(39:49) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Deals

(44:26) - Inflation and Economic Indicators

(57:15) - Investment Strategies in Current Market

(01:08:28) - Concluding Thoughts and Recommendations

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro speaks with Fahd Humayun about the shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia and the Middle East. They discuss Pakistan’s perspective on the Iran-Israel conflict, U.S.-Pakistan relations under a potential second Trump term, and the strategic implications of Pakistan’s recent military and diplomatic moves. The conversation also explores India-Pakistan tensions, the lowering threshold for military escalation, the role of China in regional alliances, and the internal political challenges facing Pakistan. Humayun emphasizes the need for regional diplomacy, stability, and cautious optimism about Pakistan’s political and democratic future.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:11) - Current Geopolitical Tensions: Iran, Israel, and Pakistan

(03:48) - Pakistan's Perspective on US Intervention

(05:16) - Unprecedented Meeting: Pakistani Army Chief and President Trump

(08:05) - Historical Context: Pakistan-US Relations

(12:44) - India-Pakistan Relations: Recent Developments

(31:21) - China's Role in South Asia

(43:36) - Domestic Politics in Pakistan

(50:37) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Fahd's Website: https://www.fahdhumayun.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity discuss the recent Israel-Iran conflict and its geopolitical impacts, including President Trump's ceasefire announcement. They analyze the muted market reactions, particularly oil's price drop, despite heightened tensions. The conversation then explores significant shifts in U.S.-Japan relations, highlighting Japan's rising outward investments as indicative of strategic realignments. Finally, Jacob and Rob reflect on navigating uncertainty, advocating long-term strategic thinking over reactive trading, and emphasizing the importance of preserving mental clarity amid rapid global changes.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:51) - Markets!

(16:04) - Japan's Economic Strategy and Global Investments

(25:41) - US-Japan Relations: Pre-existing Tensions

(26:31) - Economic Logic and Japanese Investment

(27:58) - Japan's Military Capabilities and Global Perceptions

(30:18) - Japan's Foreign Policy and Public Opinion

(32:17) - Navigating Global Uncertainty and Market Impacts

(33:16) - Trading Geopolitics: Challenges and Strategies

(35:08) - Media Influence and Protecting Your Time

(40:46) - Final Thoughts and Advice

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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