The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Mark Walter bought the Lakers for $10 billion and sold them fourteen months later for $12.5. That's a 20% return - which sounds enormous until you consider that nobody sells the Lakers after a year unless something has gone badly wrong. Chris Branch, author of The Athletic's The Pulse, joins to pull on the thread: life insurance money funding franchise purchases, a UAE sovereign wealth fund in the holding company, a Kushner and a former Disney CEO waiting on the other side. Neither of them can prove anything. Both of them can tell something is rotten.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:45) - Why the Lakers Sale Matters

(03:12) - Mark Walter’s Rise and Red Flags

(04:58) - Insurance Money and Shady Ownership

(07:24) - Sports Franchise Valuation Boom

(10:42) - Streaming Deals and Bubble Fears

(11:50) - Fans Priced Out and Losing Connection

(14:35) - What Happens Next for Walter

(18:17) - NBA Expansion Vegas vs Europe

(25:42) - When Franchise Values Could Fall

(26:55) - New Orleans Relocation History

(27:43) - NBA Valuations and Debt

(28:32) - Financing Partners and Risk

(29:25) - LSU NFL Return Loophole

(32:02) - NIL Money and No Rules

(35:03) - Universities Under Strain

(37:39) - Youth Sports Pay to Play

(39:02) - Gambling and Market Manipulation

(45:16) - Tradition vs Mercenary Players

(46:42) - Jayden Daniels NIL Clash

(50:19) - Sports as Social Barometer

(54:19) - Closing Thanks and Signoff

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Referenced in the Show:

The Pulse: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/tag/the-pulse/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Two hundred years ago, Simón Bolívar dreamed of a united Latin America - precisely so it could resist becoming America's backyard. South America may finally be integrating... Just not the way he had in mind. Elohim Monard joins from Pucallpa, deep in the Peruvian Amazon, to trace what Marco Rubio's recent swing through the region actually accomplished, why security is the MacGuffin and China is the real story, and how a continent ends up saying "yes sir" while Chinese state companies quietly run its ports and power grids. Plus: the Latin Americanization of US politics, and why El Salvador might be the next Singapore.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Podcast Welcome

(00:44) - Recording In Amazon

(02:43) - Amazon Versus Lima

(06:03) - Fujimori Nostalgia

(08:49) - Rubio Trip Backdrop

(11:18) - Bolivar Dream Reversed

(15:57) - Venezuela Power Signal

(22:22) - Bukele Surprise Move

(24:47) - Canada Multilateral Bet

(27:48) - Brazil Won’t Lead Region

(28:53) - Amazon Barrier Paradox

(30:51) - Learning From Brazil’s Balancing

(32:22) - Cuba Crisis And US Moves

(34:06) - Trade Partners Split Region

(36:58) - Security As A Pretext

(40:36) - Peru As China Flashpoint

(44:27) - Avoiding Cold War 2.0

(47:13) - Bukele And Singapore Model

(48:44) - Latin Americanization And Submission

(53:14) - Rubio’s Role And US Demands

(54:55) - Closing And Sign Off

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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People are being killed over sand. Not diamonds, not lithium, not rare earths - sand, the second-most consumed resource on earth after water, and the one nobody thinks about twice. Mette Bendixen, a geoscientist at McGill, studies where it comes from and who pays the price for it. Dubai imports its sand from Australia. Greenland's melting ice sheet is quietly producing a new export. And somewhere in Rwanda, a woman crushes stones by hand for two weeks to earn twenty dollars. The foundation of the modern world turns out to be a resource with no lobby, no regulation, and a growing body count.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro!

(01:20) - Jacob Meets Expert

(02:26) - Why Sand Matters

(04:08) - Which Sand Works

(05:45) - Where Demand Explodes

(09:05) - Scarcity And Prices

(12:02) - Dubai Imports Sand

(13:32) - Greenland Sand Boom

(19:04) - Africa And Mekong Mining

(23:36) - Alternatives And Recycling

(27:18) - Singapore Land Reclamation

(34:13) - Why Study Sand

(36:08) - Policy And Labor Dilemmas

(43:06) - Wrap Up And Takeaways

(46:50) - Outro And Credits

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Referenced in the Show:

Mette Bendixon - https://www.mettebendixen.com/

Time Is Running Out For Sand (Nature) - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02042-4

Reddit Thread - https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1usi0ze/what_is_a_multibillion_dollar_industry_that_the/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Inside you are two wolves. One (Michael Every) looks at Washington and sees a plan. The other (Jacob) looks at the same info and sees chaos. Somewhere north of both is the sovereign nation of Canada - a country discovering what it actually costs to step away from Washington and forge out on its own. Is Carney brave or delusional? Does scale decide everything? When the polite fictions come down, what's left holding any of this together? Tune in for a real disagreement between people who like each other, both wolves get fed.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(00:10) - Meet Michael Every

(02:39) - Why This Debate

(04:03) - Canada Opening Salvo

(06:07) - Every on Strategy

(10:15) - Canada EU China Options

(16:20) - Sovereignty and Pain

(21:44) - Defense Reality Check

(27:15) - US Threat vs Russia

(31:07) - US Security Red Lines

(34:21) - Polling Turns on Canada

(35:10) - Tariffs Without Strategy

(35:41) - Japan and Korea Pushback

(37:23) - Supply Chains Still China

(37:48) - Defining Real Statecraft

(38:18) - Macro Strategy Defense

(41:36) - Tariffs and Dollar Overreach

(43:53) - Trial and Error Governance

(45:17) - Geopolitical Plays Venezuela Iran

(48:06) - What Actually Comes Back

(51:52) - Work Culture and Foundry Schools

(52:55) - Rebuilding the Whole System

(57:21) - Fear Moments and Next Steps

(01:00:26) - Stablecoins and New Finance

(01:02:26) - Scale Matters Canada vs US

(01:03:15) - Closing and Where to Follow

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Referenced in the Show:

Michael Every - https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/our-experts/011085368/michael-every

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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The world has never been wealthier... but a warm patch of ocean in the Pacific is about to reorganize the weather across four continents and all that wealth still might not be enough to cover the damages. Climate scientist Justin Mankin studies how much these events actually cost - and his estimates run to $10 trillion or more in global economic loss over the next five years. Big numbers, short timeframe, scary outlook. But the hardest question that Dr. Mankin brought up with us wasn't about how we're gunna pay for all of this, it's about what gets lost when we measure disasters in GDP instead of lives.

Do we want richer world or a better one?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(01:16) - Why El Niño Matters Now

(02:47) - El Niño and IOD Explained

(07:48) - Teleconnections and Predictability

(09:47) - El Niño Life Cycle and Timing

(11:53) - Defining Normal in Climate Data

(14:39) - How El Niño Is Measured

(22:19) - ONI vs RONI and Super El Niño Hype

(26:59) - Drought Monitoring and Shifting Baselines

(32:08) - How Gnarly Is El Niño

(34:31) - Warming World Impacts

(35:20) - Counting El Niño Costs

(38:16) - El Niño to La Niña

(39:12) - Springback Physics Explained

(42:32) - Trillions in Damages

(44:00) - Causal Inference Methods

(50:09) - Conflict and Thresholds

(01:00:03) - Five Year Outlook

(01:05:42) - Closing and Credits

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Referenced in the Show:

Justin's Research - https://jsmankin.github.io/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Scott Bessent knows something that we don't. Luke Gromen has spent his whole career reading the fine print of America's balance sheet, and his conclusion is stark: the quiet interventions coming out of Washington - doubled bond buybacks, a yen rescue, a sudden fondness for stablecoins - aren't policy. They're symptoms. The arithmetic of debt, entitlements, and interest has crossed a threshold from which, Gromen argues, there are only three exits, and none of them are painless. We've got a crisis hiding in plain sight - and someone is gunna end up paying for it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:21) - Past Episode Reflections

(00:49) - Bitcoin and AI Disagreements

(01:58) - Luke Returns to the Show

(02:24) - Why Everything Feels Faster

(03:52) - Bessent and Bond Buybacks

(08:11) - True Interest Expense Alarm

(15:00) - Is It a Crisis Yet

(20:38) - Crisis Symptoms and Options

(26:54) - Japan Treasury Selling Fears

(29:06) - Allies Follow China Playbook

(34:01) - Stablecoins and CLARITY Act

(36:07) - No Silver Bullet

(36:48) - Inflation Over Bonds

(38:39) - Gold and Bitcoin Hedge

(39:09) - No Currency Alternative

(40:44) - China Gold Yuan System

(43:33) - Gold as Neutral Reserve

(48:31) - Multipolar Reserve Trap

(50:32) - Zugzwang and Supply Chains

(55:30) - Back to Gold Energy Link

(01:01:08) - AI Boom Then Bust

(01:04:00) - White Collar Disruption

(01:10:37) - Closing Thoughts and Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

Forest For The Trees - https://fftt-llc.com/about/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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AI companies are buying up used books, scanning them, and destroying the originals. At least, that's the headline... the real story is weirder. Charlie Becker, a seventh-generation bookseller in Houston, went viral for tracing one of these mysterious bulk orders - following overlooked books into Amazon warehouses filled with entire categories of obscure human knowledge. Today we're taking the plunge into a mystery that spans artificial intelligence, culture, and the LTV of a "rare" book.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Episode setup and guest intro

(01:22) - Mic check and welcome

(02:01) - Viral post and lawsuit context

(04:05) - Who is Charlie Becker

(10:40) - Amazon warehouse mystery

(13:02) - Which books are vanishing

(16:28) - FBA arbitrage and pulping

(18:53) - Amazon irony and AI layer

(22:11) - ISBN gap and metadata tool

(26:12) - Missing middle and preservation risk

(28:36) - Used Bookstore Churn Myth

(29:27) - Why Obscure Books Matter

(30:33) - AI Is Not Retrieval

(32:30) - Cookbook Chef Metaphor

(33:51) - Smaller Models Personal Agents

(34:38) - Houston Bookstore Renaissance

(37:31) - Book Crawl Themed Shops

(40:00) - Foreign Language Treasure Troves

(46:06) - Estate Libraries Rare Finds

(47:02) - Mystery Bulk Orders Explained

(51:22) - Optimism And Preservation Tool

(54:44) - Internet Slop Back To Bookstores

(57:22) - Closing Thanks And Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro welcomes back Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown's Institute of International Economic Law and former White House senior director for international economics. Trump keeps finding new legal tools - including a forgotten 1930 law now aimed at Canada - and companies have stopped investing because they can't guess what comes next :/ Also, Washington has quietly bought stakes in 37 companies, with no rules and almost no transparency around any of it.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(00:27) - Why Tariffs Matter Now

(02:18) - Rapid Fire Tariff Tools

(03:29) - Supreme Court Fallout

(05:44) - Graham Sanctions Act

(10:22) - Smoot Hawley Meets USMCA

(11:35) - Canada Tariff Mechanics

(15:49) - What Trump Wants

(21:35) - USMCA Future Scenarios

(23:47) - After Trump Trade Path

(25:30) - Next President Tariff Reset

(28:21) - Trade Policy Inflection

(29:25) - Biden vs Trump Tariffs

(30:45) - China Tariffs Reality

(33:08) - Rules of Origin Loopholes

(35:52) - Democrats China Debate

(37:22) - Industrial Policy Needed

(39:25) - Drones Case Study

(44:14) - Manufacturing Culture Shift

(48:29) - Investment Needs Certainty

(50:41) - Government Equity Stakes

(52:13) - Sovereign Wealth Concerns

(56:03) - Wrap Up and Outro

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Round two. Same four analysts, a lot more whiskey, and a lot less structure.

Peter Zeihan, Marko Papic, and Matt Gertken sit back down with Jacob - a man who cut his teeth pestering all three of them for their pieces as a Stratfor intern - for an unfiltered conversation about how they actually became geopolitical strategists. They trade formative-moment stories from Stratfor's early-2000s "golden age" (including the Egypt/Mubarak call that made Jacob's career), debate whether corporate America can ever hire real geopolitical talent, and each name the one book that shaped how they see the world - from World War Z to Aristotle to The Ingenuity Gap.

Along the way: George Friedman lore, the DC Comics-vs-Marvel theory of geopolitical shops, and a genuinely moving closing tribute to the mentor who built this whole coaching tree. Part reunion, part masterclass in how to think about the world - and part roast session.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome Back Round Two

(00:52) - Whiskey And Loose Format

(01:34) - Formative Stratfor Moments

(02:24) - Arab Spring Cred Test

(04:17) - Stratfor Coaching Tree

(07:50) - Pipeline After Cold War

(14:17) - Academia Versus Geopolitics

(17:14) - Analyst Craft And Courage

(20:22) - Chief Geopolitical Officer Debate

(22:55) - Training Gap And Time Horizons

(25:29) - Universities And MBA Reform

(27:39) - Ideology And Groupthink

(30:02) - Theory Versus Practice

(30:57) - Frameworks Beat Facts

(31:44) - Operationalizing Geopolitics

(34:24) - Training Pipelines and MBAs

(37:39) - Sector Specialists and Scale

(40:01) - Everyone a Geostrategist

(41:01) - Deglobalization in Fashion

(42:51) - Formative Books Roundtable

(51:07) - Great Men and Psychology

(54:21) - Empathetic Analysis Explained

(56:25) - Displacement and Perspective

(58:23) - Formative Experiences Teaser

(58:50) - Yugoslavia Falls Apart

(59:15) - Tito Memories and Disillusion

(59:58) - Conspiracies and Nihilism

(01:01:23) - Identity in the Balkans

(01:03:51) - Living With Uncertainty

(01:04:39) - Midwest Roots and Leaving Home

(01:06:18) - Can Places Change

(01:07:32) - America as Debate Laboratory

(01:10:22) - Learning to Write Analysis

(01:14:39) - Chip on Shoulder Mindset

(01:18:22) - Morality Versus Analysis

(01:21:12) - Breaking Intellectual Chains

(01:23:53) - Finding the Fulcrum Question

(01:24:43) - Final Words and Gratitude

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Sixteen years after last sharing a table together, four Stratfor alumni reunite for a wide-ranging conversation on the decade ahead. Jacob and Marko are joined by Peter Zeihan, and Matt Gertken to tackle three questions: How does the world end in the next 10 years? What core belief could each of us get wrong? And what's the least expected, most likely thing to happen next?

The conversation ranges from deglobalization and collapsing oil supply chains to the demographic cliff facing the developed world, the odds of deflation versus inflation in the 2030s, and whether the global order ends up multipolar, bipolar, or unipolar. They also debate the odds of a US-China clash over Taiwan, and whether the nation-state can survive a coming showdown with the tech companies and billionaires who increasingly control critical infrastructure - including orbit.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Setup

(02:05) - Reunion at the Table

(03:11) - Episode Premise and Format

(04:22) - Zeihan on Deglobalization

(06:42) - Energy Shock Fallout

(08:52) - Demographics and Demand Crash

(11:03) - Deflation vs Inflation Debate

(16:25) - Drone Warfare Dark Turn

(18:21) - Semiconductors Reality Check

(27:27) - Marco Goes Nuclear

(30:10) - Russia Collapse Scenarios

(33:18) - Nukes Spread and Ukraine Endgame

(35:31) - Supply Chain Shockwaves

(36:34) - Putin Hell Bar Joke

(37:18) - Europe Expansion Debate

(39:26) - EU Becomes Military Union

(40:37) - Post Putin Chaos Risks

(43:08) - Russian Elite Succession

(44:27) - Civil War Nuclear Fear

(47:34) - China Fills The Vacuum

(52:26) - Taiwan Timeline Scenario

(53:59) - Drones Nukes And Invasion

(56:43) - Deterrence And Flashpoints

(01:03:34) - China Demographics Clash

(01:05:15) - Depopulation Not Disaster

(01:06:14) - Black Plague Lessons

(01:07:11) - Automation Versus Depopulation

(01:07:22) - Japan China Depopulation Debate

(01:09:31) - End of Nation State

(01:11:18) - Shocks and State Capacity

(01:12:04) - Broken World of More

(01:13:07) - Knowledge Networks Collapse

(01:14:31) - Affluence Feudalism Demand

(01:16:51) - Brittle AI Chip Supply

(01:21:39) - Ingenuity Gap Reversal

(01:23:34) - Rapid Fire Predictions

(01:35:47) - State Versus Tech Showdown

(01:40:24) - Wrap and Break

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Referenced in the Show:

https://zeihan.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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