The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

Jacob sits down with Laurie McFarlane, co-director of Future Economy Scotland, for a (non-Gulf War related, finally) conversation about what makes Scotland one of the more fascinating geopolitical underdogs around. The two dig into Scotland's constrained economic agency within the UK, the squandered promise of North Sea oil, the renewable energy transition, and why Scotland - like much of Europe - risks sleepwalking into managed decline.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome And Setup

(01:30) - Why Scotland Now

(02:35) - Future Economy Scotland Origins

(05:54) - Early Impact And Strategy

(07:55) - Devolution Limits And Agency

(13:11) - North Sea Oil And Missed Fund

(15:24) - Managed Decline And Renewables

(20:26) - Who Benefits From Wind

(22:04) - UK Pricing And Regional Bills

(24:16) - Decoupling Gas And Next Steps

(27:03) - Green Transition Jobs

(29:26) - Avoiding Deindustrialization

(31:20) - Searching For Analogies

(34:19) - Ireland And Independence

(36:51) - Renewables Leverage Limits

(39:18) - Water As Strategic Asset

(40:57) - Brexit And Global Power

(43:47) - Nukes And Security Debate

(46:41) -Future Growth Model

(49:37) - Sharing Growth Fairly

(52:35) - Europe Coordination Vision

(53:56) - Closing

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Solo analysis from Jacob! Some reflection on being wrong about the Third Gulf War. Jacob outlines why he thought the war wouldn't happen - interceptor shortages, domestic politics, inflation risk, and explains what's shaken his analytical framework: the killing of moderate Iranian leaders, the appointment of a hardline Supreme Leader, the U.S. confusing firepower for strategy, and, of course, allies refusing to cooperate.

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Timestamps:

(00:27) - Why No US Attack

(02:15) - Iran Geography Leverage

(02:56) - US Politics Inflation Risk

(05:19) - Noninterventionist Contradiction

(06:26) - War Starts Timebox Logic

(07:50) - Leadership Decapitation Fallout

(08:43) - Hardliners Take Over

(10:02) - Firepower Not Strategy

(11:32) - Ground Troops And Oil Moves

(12:43) - Allies China And Shipping

(15:06) - South Pars Escalation

(16:45) - Iran Presses Advantage

(17:36) - Is The Framework Broken

(18:17) - Foxes Hedgehogs Forecasting

(19:38) - White House Meme Strategy

(21:37) - Grim Outlook Food Shock

(23:08) - Wrap Up And Subscribe

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob Shapiro sits down with journalist Jody Ray, who just returned from on-the-ground reporting in Ethiopia and Eritrea. This convo is a gateway into one of the most underreported conflicts brewing today - a potential war over Red Sea access with echoes of Cold War rivalries, ethnic fracture lines, and a region that's been through hell once already.

If you enjoyed the conversation, check out more of Jody's work below!

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Timestamps:

(01:22) - Meet Jodi in Nairobi

(01:38) - Why Ethiopia Matters

(03:20) - Ethiopia Basics

(05:44) - Cold War Backstory

(07:13) - From Empire to Derg

(10:28) - TPLF Rule and Abiy Rise

(12:37) - How Tigray War Started

(14:55) - War Aftermath and Red Sea

(16:46) - Why Tigray Didn't Take Addis

(18:48) - Eritrea Explained

(23:17) - Regional Powers and the Dam

(25:38) - Little Dubai in Addis

(27:24) - Addis Boom And Displacement

(28:47) - Capital City Versus Hinterlands

(30:32) - Nightlife And Image Management

(31:21) - Tigray Trip And War Signs

(32:28) - Life In Mekelle After War

(35:12) - Drone Strikes And Media Crackdown

(37:30) - Fighters And Civilian Resolve

(40:38) - Plea To The International Community

(42:26) - Ethiopia Fragmentation And Armed Regions

(45:22) - Horn Powder Keg And Twitter Diplomacy

(48:15) - Why Ethiopia Matters To Him

(51:58) - Travel Origins And Chinese Factory Clue

(53:59) - Closing Thoughts And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

Jody's Work - https://jodyray.journoportfolio.com/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Jacob sets down the grand strategy for a gripping personal story, catching up with his high school friend Avi Swerdlow, who landed in Israel the day before the new Gulf War erupted. Avi recounts waking to sirens, sheltering with his mother, and navigating a closed airspace in a circuitous scramble to get home - a reminder that geopolitics is always personal.

Note: If you know anyone in a Gulf or Middle Eastern state who has had to scramble in a similar way, or is experiencing the war on the ground, please connect us! We would love to feature their story.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Hello

(01:10) - Meet Avi Swerdlow

(01:58) - Siren Wake Up Call

(02:57) - Did You See It Coming

(05:53) - Flights Canceled Fast

(07:57) - Airbnb Safe Room Help

(10:29) - Embassy Alerts and STEP

(12:29) - Planning Land Escape

(14:07) - State Dept Evac Call

(16:30) - Airport Chaos and Shelter

(22:12) - Boarding DHS Evac Flight

(24:08) - Arrival in Athens

(24:17) - Athens to Rome Reset

(25:25) - Historic Moment Reflections

(26:28) - Evacuation Costs and Embassies

(27:30) - Inside the DHS Plane

(31:26) - Landing in Athens and Relief

(34:00) - Fellow Passengers Georgia Detour

(35:04) - Would You Go Back

(36:27) - Work and Family Back Home

(38:06) - Egypt Plan and Risk Tradeoffs

(39:46) - Other Routes and Final Wrap

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Iran expert Hamidreza Azizi joins Jacob Shapiro to break down the issues posed by Iran's blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. Azizi explains Iran's phased strategy: take out US radar systems first, then threaten energy infrastructure. He also unpacks who's actually running Tehran right now, why China and Russia are quietly helping, and why no optimistic scenario exists for Iran's long-term future.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Guest Intro

(00:41) - War Week Context

(01:56) - Reza Returns

(02:50) - How Long Can It Last

(08:02) - Damage and Endgames

(13:36) - Why Hit Gulf States

(18:15) - Energy and Strait Pressure

(21:39) - Can Iran Hit America

(24:12) - Cyber Limits

(26:26) - Who Runs Iran Now

(34:34) - Iran Power Centers

(37:31) - Ceasefire Off Ramp

(39:40) - Keeping US Out

(42:08) - China Strait Calculus

(45:27) - Russia China Intel Aid

(48:41) - Proxy War Limits

(57:09) - Iranian Public Mood

(01:04:24) - One Year Outlook

(01:06:25) - Closing Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Geopolitical analyst Kamran Bokhari joins Jacob to break down the US/Israeli joint strike on Iran.

Is this regime change, or coercion? Bokhari argues the limited force deployment points to a "Venezuela model" - targeting IRGC hardliners while preserving moderate military figures to negotiate a nuclear deal. But... Has the moment for regime collapse has already passed? The two also explore the regional fallout: Kurdish mobilization, Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions, and the risk of Iranian state collapse cascading across Eurasia.

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Timestamps:

(00:43) - Iran Response And Targets

(01:08) - Decapitation And Cyber Angle

(01:51) - US Firepower And Scale

(04:38) - Is This Regime Change

(07:06) - Why Not Full Invasion

(11:08) - Endgame And Negotiations

(12:36) - Backchannels And Limits

(16:05) - Advice To Trump

(19:45) - Regional Spillover Risks

(25:23) - What Happens Next

(30:06) - Wrap Up And Thanks

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Referenced in the Show:

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritcheson joins the show for his annual check-in about the climate (our fourth???) - He and Jacob revisit last year’s forecast misses and hits before diving into 2026. They explore the transition from La Niña to El Niño, implications for U.S. agriculture, hurricane risk in the Gulf, and crop prospects in South America and the Black Sea. The discussion then widens into a candid debate over sea level rise, extreme weather trends, and climate data interpretation... Highlighting disagreements, long-term cycles, and the importance of questioning assumptions in an era of clickbait and politicized climate narratives.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(01:40) - Forecast Scorecard

(04:02) - Federal cuts & the National Weather Service

(06:52) - AI in meteorology

(09:18) - Weather hype, clickbait, and short public memory

(13:17) - 2026: La Niña fading, El Niño on deck

(14:39) - Atlantic hurricane outlook for 2026 (Gulf Coast focus)

(19:32) - Heartland & farm belt forecast

(22:30) - West vs. Rockies

(24:30) - Global Ag weather

(27:44) - Black Sea outlook

(29:34) - 1.5°C Threshold: What the Recent Record Heat Means

(34:26) - Satellites vs. Tide Gauges

(35:48) - Glaciers, Natural Cycles & Past Warm Periods

(37:25) - Extreme Weather Claims

(40:09) - Tornado Trends & the Problem of Short Data Windows

(42:41) - What Actually Keeps Daryl Up at Night

(44:50) - Depoliticizing Climate Talk

(49:12) - India & the Monsoon

(52:22) - Trusted Data Sources, Raw Data, and “Weather Rhymes”

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Louis-Vincent Gave joins The Jacob Shapiro Podcast to unpack a world that looks chaotic... but may be quietly reordering itself. From a surprising thaw in U.S.–China relations to a potential renaissance in Latin America and Canada, Louis argues that today’s volatility is accelerating deeper structural shifts. He explains why Europe remains fragmented, why energy prices could derail everything, and why investors may be thinking about risk all wrong.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome & Introducing Louis Gave (Gavekal Research)

(02:43) - Liberation Day Shocks

(05:02) - China De‑Westernizing Supply Chains After 2018

(07:40) - Trump as Accelerant

(09:31) - Why a US–China Cold War Is Economically Suicidal

(11:50) - Drones Change War

(13:47) - The ‘Swamp’ Factor

(18:27) - Defense Supply Chains & Rare Earth Dependence

(21:19) - Xi’s Priorities

(25:47) - Xi’s Security, PLA Purges, and Corruption Crackdowns

(31:17) - Xi’s Army Purge

(32:37) - US-China Rapprochement

(34:36) - Who Wins if the Cold War Ends?

(35:58) - Why Latin America Looks Like the Breakout Trade

(40:24) - Mexico Risks

(42:24) - Bullish Canada

(44:37) - Does USMCA Survive?

(47:31) - No Army, No Foreign Policy

(51:00) - Can Europe Rebuild Real Military Power?

(53:27) - Ukraine Endgame

(56:23) - What Keeps Louis Up at Night

(01:00:32) - Bitcoin vs Diversification

(01:01:30) - Closing Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Louis-Vincent Gave - https://research.gavekal.com/author/louis-vincent-gave/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

--

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Something extraordinary just happened in Japan... but of course no one is paying attention!

A ruling party written off as tired and scandal-plagued didn’t just win - they delivered a generational landslide. Sanae Takaichi, Japan's first female Prime Minister, led her Liberal Democrats into a victory so complete that the opposition straight up imploded (see: winning 2/3 of Parliament). At the center of the dust cloud stands a leader arguing Japan must harden itself for a dangerous world: rebuild industry, rearm, and rely on no one but itself. This isn’t incremental politics. It’s a bet on national revival. If it works, Japan will change the global balance. If it fails, the country may well collapse.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:03) - The Significance of the Recent Japanese Election

(03:11) - Analyzing the LDP's Historic Victory

(07:37) - The Collapse of the Opposition

(13:39) - Public Opinion and Political Dynamics

(27:52) - Constraints and Challenges for Takaichi

(35:13) - Sanae Takaichi's Vision for Japan

(36:39) - Japan's National Crisis and Self-Reliance

(38:38) - Economic and Defense Strategies

(40:46) - Comparing Policies: Omics vs. Maji 2.0

(45:51) - Challenges and Constraints

(57:49) - Energy and Industrial Policies

(01:04:53) - Geopolitical Dynamics and China's Influence

(01:11:16) - Conclusion and Future Outlook

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Referenced in the Show:

Tobias substack - https://observingjapan.substack.com/

Tobias book - https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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Hamidreza Azizi joins the pod for an emergency episode on the current state of Iran amidst escalating tensions with the United States. Azizi examines the potential for conflict between the two and and offers insights into Iran's internal politics, the role of the IRGC, and the possible repercussions of a U.S. attack.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:46) - Iran's Domestic Situation

(02:44) - US-Iran Tensions and Military Movements

(04:08) - Iran's Response and Internal Dynamics

(09:41) - Potential Scenarios and Outcomes

(28:31) - Iran's Military Capabilities and Strategies

(41:16) - Regional Implications and Global Reactions

(54:33) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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Referenced in the Show:

Hamidreza’s Substack - https://www.irananalytica.org/

Middle East Council - https://mecouncil.org/experts_members/hamidreza-azizi/

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Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

--

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

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