The engine behind the analysis in BloombergNEF's New Energy Outlook (NEO) is the New Energy Forecast Model, or NEFM. This week, Switched On speaks with Ian Berryman, modeling analyst for BNEF. He'll tell us how the model works, the process he and team went through in building it, and how he took cues from ants and birds in building a lot of the software that powers it. This episode is based on the model powering the New Energy Outlook 2020, BNEF's flagship report. BNEF clients can access this report on bnef.com or BNEF Mobile, or at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal. Switched On is hosted this week by Mark Taylor. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Modeling the Energy Future: Ants, Birds and Dr. Strange

Conversations about global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Each week, Dana Perkins sits down with different BloombergNEF (BNEF) analysts to discuss their latest research and unique perspective on the future of energy, transport, agriculture, sustainability and more.

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Rooftop solar is celebrating a runaway success in Australia, which has positioned itself to become a renewable energy superpower. From a target of doubling its renewable energy capacity by 2030 to $1.2 billion in the federal budget dedicated to the clean energy sector, the country has big plans for its energy transition. Yet the country still has a ways to travel before reaching its goals, with substantial legacy coal-fired power stations still contributing to the energy mix.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by Leonard Quong, BloombergNEF’s Head of Australia Research. Together they discuss the state of the energy transition in Australia, including how large volumes of rooftop solar are leading to negative power prices, the country’s ambitions to become a leader in green hydrogen, and how its exports of coal, liquefied natural gas and other commodities continue to shape the region. 
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
1H 2024 Australia Market Outlook - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33285?context=eyJjb250ZW50VHlwZSI6Imluc2lnaHQiLCJpbnNpZ2h0LXR5cGUiOls4XSwicmVnaW9uIjpbImF1cyJdLCJzZWN0b3IiOltdLCJhdXRob3IiOltdfQ==
  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rooftop Solar Boom Turns Australian Power Prices Red

Autonomous vehicles might be the cars of the future, but following a flurry of venture capital and private equity funding a decade ago, investment in this space has since tapped the brakes. Last year saw VC/PE fundraising fail to reach $4 billion for the first time since 2017. While green shoots have come in the form of Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi launch, in such a capital-intensive industry, which levels of autonomy are the rest of the field still betting on?
On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s Head of Intelligent Mobility, Andrew Grant. Together they discuss the recent drop in investment, advances in self-driving vehicle development, and Tesla’s continued resistance to following its peers in adopting laser-based sensor technology known as lidar.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Automated Vehicles: State of the Industry 2024 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33597 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Self-Driving Vehicles Navigate Funding Speed Bumps

The first quarter of 2024 has seen a flurry of sustainable finance policy activity and a wave of mandatory reporting rules. Yet on the flip side, anti-ESG policies are gaining traction in the US. On today’s show, Dana is joined by Maia Godemer, senior associate for green and sustainable finance at BloombergNEF, to discuss this rapidly changing environment. Together, they consider BNEF’s new Sustainable Finance Policy Quarterly, touching on the new EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and how it differs from the International Sustainability Standards Board (ISSB).
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Sustainable Finance Policy Quarterly 1Q 2024 - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33831 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US ESG Backlash Steps Up as EU Strengthens Standards

As the host of this year’s G-20 meetings and next year’s COP30 climate conference, Brazil is in the spotlight. Ranked sixth globally for energy transition investment in 2023, and third for both wind and solar capacity additions, Brazil is aiming to use its vast array of natural resources to ensure its future as a clean energy powerhouse.
On today’s show, Dana is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of Latin America research, James Ellis, and analyst, Vinicius Nunes. They discuss Brazil’s potential for green hydrogen production, growing electric vehicle (EV) adoption in a market that is already dominated by vehicles powered by biofuels, and the role of the Amazon forest in voluntary carbon markets.
Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com
Links to research notes from this episode:
Latin America Market Outlook 1H 2024: Brazil Drives Growth - https://www.bnef.com/insights/33999 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Brazil Harnesses Natural Capital to Fuel Green Future

As part of the Inflation Reduction Act, draft guidance for the US hydrogen production tax credit was introduced in December 2023, with the aim of promoting decarbonization in hard-to-abate sectors and enhancing energy security in the country. While some applauded the draft guidance for preventing greenwashing and driving real decarbonization, others view these requirements as excessive, and fear they could potentially discourage investment in green hydrogen production.
On today’s show, BNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, hosts a conversation on hydrogen production in the US, with panelists Kathleen Barron, Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer at Constellation; Claire Behar, Chief Commercial Officer at Hy Stor Energy; Elena Scaltritti, Chief Commercial Officer at Topsoe; and Andy Vesey, President and Chief Executive Officer at Fortescue North America. They discuss whether the tax credit rules are helping or hurting green hydrogen production in the US, the lack of demand incentives compared with the EU, and the role that nuclear could play in the hydrogen sector’s future.
Today’s episode was recorded live at the BNEF Summit New York. To learn more about BNEF’s Summits and to listen to more interviews, please visit https://about.bnef.com/summit/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Modeling the Energy Future: Ants, Birds and Dr. Strange

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