Three additional insights to help you confidently invest in fixed income. First, what are the different measures of bond yields, and which is best? Second, how to estimate the return for a bond ETF or fund and how long do you have to own it to achieve that annualized return? Finally, we explore a bond type that yields more than U.S. Treasuries, has never defaulted, and has the implicit guarantee of the U.S. government.

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• How badly has China's stock market performed except for one remarkable decade
• What are the economic and governance factors that contributed to the underperformance
• Why it's too soon to write off China despite the structural headwinds
• What are the factors that contribute to economic growth and a robust stock market, and which emerging market countries display those factors
• What are some ETFs to invest in countries with favorable economic tailwinds

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Show Notes

State-Owned Enterprises Going Public: The Case of China by Xiaozu Wang, et al.—SSRN

A Model of China's State Capitalism by Xi Li, et al.—SSRN

Has China given up on state-owned enterprise reform? by Nicholas Borst—The Interpreter

China Regulator’s New Slogan Fuels Buying Spree in State Firms by Bloomberg News—Bloomberg

Investors sour on Beijing’s bid to boost state-owned enterprises by Sun Yu—The Financial Times

China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? by Lingling Wei and Stella Yifan Xie—The Wall Street Journal

What just happened: Storm clouds loom for China’s economy by Sebastian Mallaby, et al.—The Washington Post

Imminent end of ‘demographic dividend’: Share of India’s working age population set to fall by 2036 by Tca Sharad Raghavan—The Print

What’s Holding Back India’s Economic Ambitions? by Shan Li and Vibhuti Agarwal—The Wall Street Journal

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From raging wildfires to devastating floods, how are these natural events reshaping our financial landscape? What if anything, should we be doing with our investments as a result?

Topics covered include:

• The devastating Maui wildfire: What are the factors that led to one of the deadliest wildfires in US history.
• Global wildfire trends: Are they really increasing? The data might surprise you.
• The role of insurance companies: Learn how the giants of the reinsurance world, like Swiss Re and Munich Re, are navigating the increasing number of natural disasters.
• The complex interplay of climate change, urban expansion, and human choices
• Why IPCC is not highly confident regarding some weather impacts of climate change due to the natural variability in weather patterns.
• What should individuals do when there is a lack of details regarding a long-term potential threat?

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Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd 

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Show Notes

Why the fires in Hawaii have been so bad—The Economist

CAMS: monitoring extreme wildfire emissions in 2022—Copernicus

A human-driven decline in global burned area by N. Andela et al.—Science

Seasonal Trend for Europe—Copernicus

Insurers rack up $50bn in losses from natural catastrophes this year by Ian Smith—The Financial Times

World insurance market developments in 5 charts—Swiss Re Institute

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF

California insurance market rattled by withdrawal of major companies by Michael R. Blood—AP

Rising Temperatures Are Wreaking Havoc Year-Round by Zahra Hirji, Rachael Dottle, and Denise Lu—Bloomberg

Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment by Roshanka Ranasinghe, et al.—IPCC

The Science Before Science

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)—The World Bank

Related Episodes

340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?

413: What if the World Stopped Shopping?

442: Crisis-Proof Investing: Strategies for a Shaky Future

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We share five things we have learned about stock index valuations, earnings, currency, and why value investing isn't dead.

Topics covered include:

• How index providers divide the stock universe into large and small, growth and value
• The difference between the price-to-earnings ratio and earnings yield and which is better
• How earnings volatility can impact annual earnings growth and what to use to estimate future earnings
• How value stocks often grow earnings faster than growth stocks
• How value has outperformed growth in the last three years

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Show Notes

Asset Camp

Money for the Rest of Us Plus

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102: What It Takes To Be A Value Investor

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

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Given climate change and other risks, how should you invest for the next forty years?

Topics covered include:

• What predictions from the last forty years came true and which didn't
• Why the next forty years will have a lot of similarities to the last forty years despite the promise of AI
• Why the scale and complexity of the world make big transitions away from oil, cement, and natural gas unlikely
• Why economic growth and consumption will likely continue leading to positive investment returns
• How should our portfolios and lifestyle be structured to build resilience

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Show Notes

The Third Wave by Alvin Toffler—Penguin Random House

Parcel shipping index 2022—Pitney Bowes

America Is Drowning in Packages by Amanda Mull—The Atlantic

How to Spend Way Less Time on Email Every Day by Matt Plummer—Harvard Business Review

World Population Prospects—United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Global Climate Change Vital Signs—NASA

Congestion Pricing Plan in New York City Clears Final Federal Hurdle by Ana Ley—The New York Times

New Jersey Sues Over Congestion Pricing in New York City by Ana Ley—The New York Times

How the World Really Works by Vaclav Smil—Penguin Random House

Does Sam Altman Know What He's Creating? by Ross Andersen—The Atlantic

The Economic Cost of Houston’s Heat: ‘I Don’t Want to Be Here Anymore’ by Rachel Wolfe and Amara Omeokwe—The Wall Street Journal

SEC Proposes Rules to Enhance and Standardize Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

SEC’s Climate-Disclosure Rule Isn’t Here, but It May as Well Be, Many Businesses Say by Richard Vanderford—The Wall Street Journal

Market Myopia's Climate Bubble by Madison Condon—Boston University School of Law

What Really Happens to the Clothes You Donate by Oliver Franklin-Wallis—GQ

OpenAI's Sam Altman launches Worldcoin crypto project by Anna Tong—Reuters

Worldcoin’s premise is a disturbing one by Tabby Kinder—The Financial Times

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In 2005, Congress debated giving U.S. workers private savings accounts to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock and bond markets. Sixteen years later, we review how that would have worked out for workers.

Other topics discussed include:

• How the public and private sectors are both critical for a functioning social security systems
• Which countries pay the highest social security benefits
• How have other privatized social security plans worked out around the world
• How workers prefer defined contribution plans even though they are worse off than if defined benefit plans were still widely available
• How worried should we be about aging populations and rising dependency ratios
• Why Social Security won't go away

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Show Notes

Greenspan "There is nothing to prevent the government from creating as much money as it wants."—YouTube

Estimated Financial Effects of the "Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2005" by Stephen C. Goss—Social Security Administration

Social Security Quick Calculator—Social Security Administration

The average 401(k) balance by age by Pau Deer—Empower

CBO’s 2022 Long-Term Projections for Social Security—Congressional Budget Office

Policy Basics: Top Ten Facts about Social Security—Center On Budget and Policy Priorities

Evaluation of Four Decades of Pension Privatization in Latin America, 1980-2020: Promises and Reality by Carmelo Mesa-Lago—SSRN

Population Age Structure and Secular Secular Stagnation: The Long Run Evidence by Joseph Kopecky—SSRN

Does Human Capital Compensate for Depopulation? by M. Siskova, Michael Kuhn, Klaus Prettner, Alexia Fürnkranz-Prskawetz—SSRN

How Much Do Public Employees Value Defined Benefit versus Defined Contribution Retirement Benefits? by Oliver Giesecke and Joshua D. Rauh—SSRN

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How to mitigate the risk of investing on crowdfunding platforms where there is little transparency on the underlying financial health of the platform company.

Topics covered include:

• What is the platform economy
• How blitzscaling and an over-reliance on venture capital funding led to Peer Street's bankruptcy
• What happens next for investors on Peer Street's platforms
• How individuals and businesses can mitigate the risk of investing or conducting business on platforms

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Show Notes

Amazon: Independent Sellers In The U.S. Sold More Than 4.1 Billion Products in 2022 by SGB Media—SGB Media

PeerStreet

LinkedIn Post by Brett Crosby—LinkedIn

Crowdfunding platform PeerStreet files for bankruptcy by Flávia Furlan Nunes—Housingwire

AI Was Q2’s Big Hope To Reverse The Global Venture Funding Slowdown. It Wasn’t Enough by Gené Teare—Crunchbase

VC finds its footing as headwinds weaken by James Thorn—PitchBook

PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor—PitchBook

Cases FAQ—Stretto

Real estate debt marketplace PeerStreet files for bankruptcy by Matt Carter—inman

BlockFi Bet Big on FTX and Alameda Even After Seeing Infamous Balance Sheet, Creditors Say by Jack Schickler—CoinDesk

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253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

301: Use Caution with Alternative Investments

393: What Happens If Your Brokerage Firm Goes Bankrupt

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AI models like ChatGPT could lead to massive productivity gains, accelerated economic growth, and higher stock returns. Here's how to invest in AI.

Topics covered include:

• How workers are already using AI models like ChatGPT to boost productivity
• Why ChatGPT is better at search than Google for certain queries
• How AI models will change the economic narrative
• What are ways to invest in AI, including specific ETFs

For more information on this episode click here.

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Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd 

Show Notes

Sarah Silverman Sues OpenAI and Meta Over Copyright Infringement by Zachary Small—The New York Times

ChatGPT saw its first-ever user decline in June by Igor Bonifacic—Engadget

A New Chat Bot Is a ‘Code Red’ for Google’s Search Business by Nico Grant and Cade Metz—The New York Times

How to get a handle on AI’s many implications for economies and markets by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics

Lessons From the Catastrophic Failure of the Metaverse by Kate Wagner—The Nation

To Drive AI, Chip Makers Stack ‘Chiplets’ Like Lego Blocks by Yang Jie—The Wall Street Journal

Investments Mentioned

iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)

Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT)

Robo Global® Artificial Intelligence ETF (THNQ)

iShares Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Multisector ETF (IRBO)

iShares Exponential Technologies ETF (XT)

Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)

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256: Will Artificial Intelligence Change Investing?

417: Will Generative AI Replace Your Job?

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Camden and Bret sit down with Ramit Sethi, host of Netflix’s hit show, “How to Get Rich”, author of the New York Times bestseller, “I Will Teach You To Be Rich” and host of the popular “I Will Teach You To Be Rich” podcast. He is known for his unconventional insights on money psychology and his no-nonsense approach to designing and living a rich life. 

Ramit’s financial philosophy is centered around several key principles, including the importance of automating your finances, using money psychology to prioritize your “money dials,” and focusing on $30,000 questions instead of $3 ones.

Topics covered include:

• What it means to live outside the spreadsheet and have a rich life
• The importance of learning how to spend, not just save and invest
• Approaching investing when you don’t come from an investment background and what to do if you are feeling behind

For more information on this episode click here.

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Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd 

Show Notes

I Will Teach You to Be Rich

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How to create and sustain a life of freedom and happiness you don't want to retire from.

Topics covered include:

• What are the physical and mental aspects of living like you are already retired
• What is the good life, and what are the basic goods that contribute to it
• How we handle time is the key to the good life and living like we are already retired

For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Politics by Aristotle

How Much is Enough? Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky—Penguin Random House

Cormac McCarthy Had a Remarkable Literary Career. It Could Never Happen Now. by Dan Sinykin—The New York Times

Soloing: Realizing Your Life's Ambition by Harriet Rubin—HarperCollins

Saving Time: Discovering a Life Beyond the Clock by Jenny Odell—Penguin Random House

An Early Resurrection: Life in Christ Before You Die by Adam S. Miller—Deseret Book

Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman—Macmillan Publishers

Time Surfing

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371: Find Your Retirement Investing and Living Style

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