Money Tree Investing

This hidden bull market is actually lying in plain sight! Find out what it is today as we discuss media fear-mongering, unhelpful propaganda, Bitcoin and gold, and more. The central banks continue accumulating gold, emphasizing its historical role as a long-term store of value, and noting that despite the rise of digital assets like Bitcoin (which the U.S. now holds as a reserve), gold's cultural and material significance remains deeply embedded worldwide. Oh, and we also got a new Pope!

We discuss...

• A new Pope from the U.S., Pope Leo XIV (formerly Robert Prevost of Chicago), was elected, contradicting Jim Cramer's confident prediction.
• The Pope had a 1% chance in betting markets, showing how off-market odds can be and how unexpected outcomes can deliver large returns.
• A widely shared headline warned that Earth will run out of oxygen, but buried in the article was the timeline—1 billion years from now.
• Climate change is a hard-to-measure issue that's often politically weaponized and based on unprovable long-term models.
• Propaganda exists across all eras and agendas, including pro-America messages like those in 80s movies such as Top Gun.
• Spotting propaganda and political messaging can be useful for investors trying to understand broader narratives and their market implications.
• Governments often downplay crises right before they hit, and historically, such reassurances can be a red flag to start worrying.
• Recognizing themes in media, like global warming or military conflicts, can help investors anticipate policy moves or market shifts.
• Nuclear energy is an example of a rational solution ignored for political reasons, illustrating how policy can ignore practical options.
• Wealthy investors and central banks are buying more gold, reinforcing gold's role as a long-term store of value.
• Gold continues to be culturally significant and trusted across civilizations, unlike newer assets like Bitcoin.
• The U.S. government has decided to hold confiscated Bitcoin as a reserve asset, further legitimizing it in financial circles.
• There's growing speculation that Bitcoin could evolve into a reserve asset for central banks, similar to gold.
• Banks have transitioned from resisting Bitcoin to finding ways to monetize it, suggesting institutional acceptance is rising.
• Gold has significantly outpaced wage growth since 2000, reinforcing its strength as a store of value amid stagnant real income.
• Crypto has displaced silver as the inflation-hedge asset of choice among younger investors, hurting silver's narrative.
• Long-term tailwinds for silver include green tech applications like solar panels and EVs, which could reignite demand.
• Gold and silver miners have underperformed despite rising bullion prices, with some major miners currently unprofitable.
• Mining companies face structural inefficiencies, making many poor business models despite gold's rise.
• Institutional caution, reflected in moves by figures like Warren Buffett, indicates potential market hesitancy despite retail optimism.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hidden-bull-market-711

Anthony Georgiades shares the future of venture capital in the age of AI. He shares his journey from an early failed startup to becoming a deeply technical investor focused on frontier technologies. He emphasizes the importance of technical literacy in venture capital, especially when evaluating deep tech. We also touch on the economic and existential risks of AI, emphasizing the need for governance, transparency, and decentralized control, while pointing to robotics as a slower-moving but ultimately transformative force in the physical economy.

We discuss...

• Anthony Georgiades shared his background in business, venture capital, and a technical pivot into computer science and robotics.
• A failed early startup experience drove him to gain deeper technical proficiency to better assess and build emerging technologies.
• He emphasized the importance of deeply understanding deep tech and being able to speak fluently with technical founders.
• Web3 use cases are becoming more real, with examples like decentralized AI inference, verifiable model outputs, and on-chain computation.
• He highlighted the importance of decentralized GPU marketplaces and AI-native blockchains as potential disruptors.
• Web3's decentralized financial infrastructure enables instant, global, and permission-less access to financial instruments.
• Banks remain entrenched due to regulatory, compliance, and sovereign monetary systems, despite growing disruption.
• Crypto is unlikely to replace fiat overnight due to legal, infrastructure, and fractional reserve complexities.
• AI is seen as the most inevitable trend, already impacting industries across the board.
• The exponential development of foundation models and the importance of proprietary data are creating a winner-take-most dynamic.
• Web3, though earlier in development, is viewed as more disruptive due to its potential to create new markets and rewrite institutional frameworks.
• He acknowledged real short- and long-term risks with AI, including economic displacement, misinformation, and loss of control.
• Existential AI risk stems from misaligned goals, where intelligent systems could pursue objectives with harmful side effects.
• Open models, auditable systems, and decentralized infrastructure are key to safer AI development.
• Robotics is considered the "final frontier" of disruption, especially as intelligent machines become capable of operating in the physical world.
• Use cases like autonomous farming are emerging as impactful applications of robotics innovation.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/venture-capital-in-the-age-of-ai-anthony-georgiades-710

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett's announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett's post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett's preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending.

We discuss...

• Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel.
• Buffett's consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks.
• Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments.
• The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown.
• Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures.
• Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number.
• Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals.
• A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn.
• Business investment surged after Trump's election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty
• Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current administration.
• Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible.
• A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway.
• The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing.
• Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility.
• A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply.
• Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals.
• The official CPI of 21% over five years doesn't align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation.
• Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions.
• Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the "bullshit detector"—instead of blindly trusting official data.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711

Diana Perkins shares how you can master your emotions through discipline for trading success. Her journey has taken her from a childhood fascination with finance to building a career in trading and eventually launching her own trading education business. She mentors aspiring traders and emphasizes that long-term success is overwhelmingly about emotional discipline and risk management.

We discuss...

• Diana Perkins shares that she knew finance was her calling from a young age, charging her sister interest on loans at age nine.
• She fell in love with trading stock options and derivatives, and mentors hundreds of aspiring traders.
• Today, Diana runs her own trading education business focused on teaching new traders with an emphasis on risk management.
• Most traders, particularly currency traders, tend to blow up at least one account as a "rite of passage."
• Fear, greed, and mindset are much bigger factors in trading success than simply knowing technical skills.
• Diana works extensively with options traders, helping them overcome the initial intimidation of options complexity.
• She emphasized the importance of discipline and emotional control in trading over just understanding strategies.
• Her favorite strategy when trading professionally is vertical spreads because of their limited risk and "set it and forget it" nature.
• She shared that she still trades today, both in her own account and through a virtual portfolio for her stock-picking service.
• Most people's natural instincts — fear, greed, impatience — are what make trading so challenging.
• Even random stock picks can perform well if trade management and discipline are handled properly.
• Diana emphasizes that discipline, probability, and risk management are at the core of successful trading, not just stock picking.
• It's important to focus on the amount of premium at risk rather than the number of contracts or shares controlled.
• Verticals require holding to expiration to capture full profit potential since gains are capped.
• Implied volatility (IV) can often cause seemingly "off" prices, particularly around earnings and major events.
• Consistency over time is critical to profiting from strategies like IV trading, much like "sell in May" seasonality trades.
• While AI tools can assist, she double-checks everything manually due to her auditing background and mistrust of "black box" systems.
• Although past performance isn't predictive, understanding human psychology — fear and greed — can offer powerful trading insights.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/discipline-for-trading-success-diana-perkins-708

This is a big move in this shiny asset! While everything else in the market is seeing big changes, gold is not different. We are also in earnings season, and major companies' reports can influence markets. Business uncertainty, especially around tariffs, has caused a dramatic slowdown in corporate spending. Forecasting has become very difficult, but there are signs of a potential recession, yet it's still important to avoid echo chambers when forming investment views.

We discuss...

• Inflation has significantly raised prices at restaurants between 2020 and 2025, with breakfast items like IHOP pancakes seeing an 82% price increase.
• Companies are cautious during the current earnings season, often dampening future expectations due to economic uncertainty and tariffs.
• A North American manager reported that customer spending and shipping orders have frozen up worse than during COVID, threatening layoffs.
• People seek confirmation of their beliefs and the danger of echo chambers in investing and life.
• Successful investors should seek out contradictory evidence rather than self-confirming narratives.
• Value stocks like McDonald's and Coca-Cola have been resilient and largely unaffected by tariffs.
• Investors should examine their ETFs' holdings and individual stock performance closely.
• Many mega-cap tech stocks have struggled despite strong revenue growth since 2021.
• A new generation of investors is facing real market pullbacks for the first time, leading to potential emotional decision-making.
• Risk is always present in markets, regardless of "risk on" or "risk off" environments.
• Diversification and proper risk management should be done before volatility hits, not after.
• Technology stocks are especially vulnerable to liquidity tightening and reduced spending.
• Global liquidity is showing signs of increasing outside the U.S., helping international markets outperform.
• Recessions, though painful, are necessary for economic health and market resets.
• Gold has been very strong recently, staying above its 200-day moving average.
• The gold-to-silver ratio is historically high, suggesting silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold.
• Proper ratio trades remove general market movement risk but require strong discipline and understanding.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-this-shiny-asset-707

We're joined by Frances Reaves, who shares insights from her work in estate and Medicaid planning, on how to get your parents ready for long term care. Frances explains the importance of preparing for elder care before it's urgently needed, sharing her personal experience with her own parents and husband, who is currently navigating Alzheimer's care. The conversation dives into the realities of elder care, including the challenges of navigating the healthcare system, the high costs of in-home versus facility care, and the value of long-term care insurance.

We discuss...

• Francis Reads is an elder law attorney specializing in estate and Medicaid planning.
• She founded a service within her law firm called "Parent Your Parents" to support elder care planning.
• Elder care generally begins around age 65, when Medicare becomes available.
• A major challenge in elder care is systemic apathy and poor communication in facilities.
• In-home care is the gold standard if money is no object, costing $12,000–$15,000 per month.
• Reverse mortgages and long-term care insurance are common strategies to fund elder care.
• Long-term care insurance works similarly to car insurance—ideally unused but crucial.
• The cost of long-term care and facilities can quickly deplete even sizable retirement savings.
• The best age to purchase long-term care insurance is between 55 and 60.
• For-profit facilities are incentivized to keep patients alive, not necessarily to improve their quality of life.
• If you have no one to care for you, plan ahead with long-term care insurance, savings, and legal documents like power of attorney and healthcare proxy.
• People who choose to provide full-time care often risk financial ruin if long-term care plans or savings are not in place.
• There's potential to arbitrage life expectancy in financial tools like reverse mortgages or life insurance.
• Many elders struggle with losing independence, especially around giving up driving.
• Adult children often become parental figures to their own parents, which can create emotional strain.
• Financial advisors and lawyers play a key role in spotting and preventing elder financial abuse.
• Professionals should watch for signs of undue influence or financial exploitation and speak up if concerned.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/long-term-care-h-frances-reaves-706

Good times... Bad markets! Today we talk about recent volatility in the market, particularly in the bond market, as there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that are coming with Trump's economic moves. There may be a market downturn of up to 40% and the Fed will respond most likely respond by cutting rates, a familiar cycle in which political and monetary forces intervene to stabilize markets. Ultimately, if there's a recession, we still don't need to panic, the US markets are still strong so invest accordingly!

We discuss...

• Market volatility recently spiked to levels not seen since COVID, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.
• Trump's unpredictable moves reintroduced risk into the markets, which had become too complacent.
• The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, which markets interpret as a lack of proactive response.
• Trump criticized the Fed for not following the ECB in cutting rates, claiming it weakens U.S. competitiveness.
• The podcast host believes the market can handle high rates and criticized Powell's pre-election rate cut as political.
• A continued market selloff is expected, with potential drops of 30–40% in the S&P 500 this year.
• If markets decline significantly, the Fed is likely to step in and cut rates to stabilize things.
• Historically, market declines have been followed by Fed intervention, which then props markets back up.
• A mild recession is likely before any recovery, but the overall economy remains fundamentally strong.
• Tariffs are currently painful for businesses but are viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent fixture.
• Markets dislike uncertainty, and the next six months are expected to be rocky before clarity returns.
• Keeping cash on hand is advised to take advantage of potential lower asset prices
• Americans are generally uncomfortable with negotiation and volatility compared to the rest of the world.
• Manufacturing may not fully return to the U.S., but diversification is critical for national security.
• Time dilation and recency bias cause people to misjudge the permanence of current events like tariffs.
• Leaders like Trump and Powell are motivated by legacy, not destruction.
• A stronger dollar could hurt gold and hard assets but elevate the U.S. as the most stable economy.
• Investors should routinely reassess their holdings to see if they would still buy them today.
• Always identify the potential exit point for any investment to manage risk.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/good-times-bad-markets-705

Dan Rasmussen returns to talk about how to invest during this global paradigm shift. Rasmussen shares how the post-2008 investment environment has shifted, with international markets now outperforming, volatility spiking, and the dollar weakening. He critiques the AI investment narrative, challenges in AI profitability, the misalignment between AI hype and real-world economic value, and the implications of rising geopolitical and market uncertainty.

We discuss...

• Dan Rasmussen runs the hedge fund Verdad, focusing on microcap value, credit, and market-neutral strategies.
• His new book, The Humble Investor, compiles insights from a decade of writing research notes.
• How the post-2008 market was defined by low volatility, strong U.S. equity performance, and growth stock dominance.
• In 2025, international markets have started outperforming U.S. equities, signaling a potential regime shift.
• As AI skepticism grows, tech giants have seen declining returns due to increased capital intensity.
• The profitability of AI investments remains unclear, with few killer applications and unsustainable infrastructure costs.
• Chipmakers like Nvidia require enormous customer spending just to justify current valuations.
• The long-term viability of AI, citing high operational costs and uncertain end-user benefits.
• Rising market volatility, potentially driven by politics and the dollar, is pushing investors toward safer, lower-volatility assets.
• Despite years of underperformance, international investing may be entering a comeback phase.
• Google is testing a shift from a pay-per-click to a pay-per-lead ad model in select zip codes.
• ChatGPT is becoming a preferred tool for research due to speed, accuracy, and reduced noise compared to Google.
• The uncertainty around AI profitability makes current tech valuations speculative and potentially risky.
• Potential large-scale layoffs in government and academia could ripple through the broader economy.
• Shifting public-sector workers to private-sector roles is uncertain and may not offset job losses.
• Despite Trump's influence, AI is seen as a more dominant force for markets than political shifts.
• Japan is highlighted as a promising international market due to undervalued stocks with fortress balance sheets.
• Gold has become a favored allocation, with some portfolios holding as much as 35% due to recent strong performance.

Today's Panelists:

• Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection
• Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners
• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-paradigm-shift-dan-rasmussen-704

There's a second big move in the S&P 500 and it's going to change things! Today we reflect on a historic and volatile week in the markets, highlighting dramatic swings that included 40- to 50-year extremes. We also talk investor psychology, client reactions, and the importance of focusing on long-term planning rather than daily market noise. There's also been a mystery investment that has quietly outperformed this year despite a lack of media attention so it's important to pay attention to all the trends, even the ones that aren't getting mainstream attention. We also share on Warren Buffett's enduring success, Trump's negotiation tactics, and how to spot overlooked opportunities by tracking what isn't crashing when everything else is.

We discuss...

• A mystery investment that's performed exceptionally well in 2024 but has received zero media attention.
• How under-the-radar assets often outperform when no one is paying attention.
• Billionaires lost large amounts of money this year—except Warren Buffett, who gained $12.7 billion.
• Charts from the previous week showed bond-related assets and corn among top performers, while energy and cannabis sectors lagged.
• Some Dow stocks barely moved during the selloff—specifically Coca-Cola and McDonald's.
• We encourage investors to look for stocks that remain resilient during market downturns as potential buying opportunities.
• Trump's negotiation tactics with China are giving markets a breather while keeping pressure on.
• Strength in gold miners, healthcare, and food & beverage was cited as areas to watch moving forward.
• Social media sentiment is largely negative, with most companies underperforming regardless of size.
• Low volatility stocks are the notable outliers, performing better than other equity factors.
• Alternative assets like preferreds and hedge funds are also experiencing significant declines.
• Gold is the surprise top-performing asset this year, up sharply and widely ignored by even gold enthusiasts.
• Financially strong companies are likely to outperform in uncertain markets and come out stronger.
• U.S. processed food is often lower quality than international versions, yet less regulated domestically.
• The 200-day moving average is a key rule of thumb—nothing good tends to happen below it.
• Global equity markets, particularly Europe and Latin America, remain positive year-to-date despite recent pullbacks.
• European stocks may offer opportunity, but the speaker expresses skepticism over Europe's long-term competitiveness.
• The U.S. dollar is down 4% year-to-date and recently broke below its multi-year trading range.
• Crypto has been mixed, with Bitcoin holding up better than Ethereum but still failing to protect during downturns.
• Short-term U.S. Treasuries are a reasonable safe option, but cash in one's own currency is the best defense.
• Investors should stay cautious and avoid big risks during uncertain times, even amid major rebounds.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/second-big-move-in-the-sp

Beau Henderson joins us to dive into the often misunderstood world of Social Security planning. Beau highlights how only 4% of people claim their benefits in a way that maximizes lifetime value. We discuss why Social Security is so confusing: its overly complex rules, lack of personalized advice from the SSA, and the financial planning industry's limited focus on optimization due to low compensation incentives. Beau also breaks down a three-step process to make better Social Security decisions.

We discuss...

• Beau Henderson worked in retirement planning for over 25 years, focusing heavily on Social Security optimization.
• A mentor's poor Social Security decision inspired Beau to dig deeper into the system and help others avoid costly mistakes.
• Many people take Social Security based on incomplete or misleading advice, often lacking proper context.
• The Social Security Administration cannot legally give personalized advice, which leaves many without adequate guidance.
• There are over 500 possible combinations of how a household can claim Social Security benefits.
• Beau breaks Social Security planning into three key steps: organize your financial picture, understand the rules for your household, and model different claiming scenarios.
• Most households leave over $200,000 on the table due to suboptimal Social Security decisions.
• Social Security decisions should be integrated with income distribution planning and tax strategy.
• Sometimes taking benefits earlier can make sense if it supports personal goals like retiring earlier.
• Many people don't realize that the Social Security decision affects not just them but their spouse's future as well.
• Common fear about Social Security cuts are largely media-driven; legislation changes tend to happen slowly.
• The worst-case scenario is likely a 20% benefit reduction, not elimination, and future generations will see more significant changes.
• Up to 85% of your Social Security benefit may be taxable depending on your income level.
• Proactive tax planning, like Roth conversions, can help reduce the tax burden on Social Security income.
• Survivor benefits are an important yet often overlooked aspect of Social Security planning.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-planning-beau-henderson-702