Money Tree Investing

Today we ask a burning question: is Donald Trump inflationary? We dive into the economic implications of Trump's policies, emphasizing their inflationary and deflationary effects. These measures could impact GDP, unemployment, wages, and inflation. We also explore the challenges of rising costs in basic necessities like food, transportation, and utilities, alongside broader concerns about the stock market's bullishness, potential corrections, and the need for sustainable economic growth. We also talk the commodity trends like coffee and the stock market's relationship to the Chinese calendar.

We discuss...

• Trump's proposed policies—tax cuts, tariffs, government spending cuts, and border closures.
• Tax cuts and tariffs are inflationary, with tariffs passing costs to consumers and raising the price of goods.
• Border closures may increase food and low-wage labor costs, adding further inflationary pressure.
• Federal Reserve policy, including recent rate cuts, adds inflationary pressures, but further interest rate hikes may be necessary to control it.
• Essentials like car insurance, gas, and rent have significantly outpaced reported CPI inflation rates, putting pressure on everyday budgets.
• Addressing long-term inflation may require sustained economic growth, though achieving this remains a significant challenge.
• Inflation is impacting both dining out and eating at home, with rising costs creating financial challenges for consumers and restaurants alike.
• Billionaires prioritize keeping money in appreciating assets, contrasting with the "millionaire next door" approach of debt elimination.
• Trump coins and similar meme coins illustrate the rise of community-based cryptocurrencies, driven more by social networks than inherent value.
• Distrust in media, political institutions, and "gatekeepers of truth" underscores a growing reliance on decentralized, market-driven decision-making.
• Free markets naturally balance supply and demand, with pricing mechanisms reflecting societal values and priorities.
• Widespread skepticism of information sources reflects a societal shift toward questioning traditional authorities and media.
• Policies against nuclear energy inadvertently push reliance on coal to fill energy gaps, undermining efforts for a cleaner planet.
• The high cost of living in many U.S. states underscores the need for affordable energy to alleviate economic pressures on households.
• Economic inequalities persist, with credit card defaults rising and inflation impacting household spending, particularly in transportation, housing, and food.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/is-donald-trump-inflationary-681

Eric Crittenden is here to share the investing strategies for all weather! No matter what the situation is, you should be prepared to invest your money wisely. Eric shares insights on blending equities, bonds, and systematic global macro strategies like trend-following to navigate volatile markets, emphasizing the importance of managing downside risk and incorporating uncorrelated assets. We also reflect on macroeconomic trends, and compare today's inflationary pressures to the 1970s, expressing skepticism about inflation being fully contained and stressing the value of systematic investing over reliance on media narratives or short-term predictions. Today we discuss... Eric Crittenden, CIO at Standpoint Asset Management, specializes in "all-weather investing," combining hedge fund styles and traditional assets for stable returns in all market conditions. Eric's career began after transitioning from meteorology and public health studies to finance, spurred by a fascination with dynamic systems and risk management. He highlights the importance of managing downside risk and diversification, especially during challenging periods like the stagflation of the 1970s. Crittenden cautions against high-fee hedge fund structures, advocating for in-house, low-cost implementation of trend-following strategies. Gold, short-term fixed income, and systematic macro strategies are recommended for navigating inflationary and stagflationary periods. Rather than relying on narratives, Crittenden employs a systematic, data-focused method to identify global trends using daily updates from international futures exchanges. Current economic conditions are compared to historical eras like the 1970s, the Great Depression, and early 2000s, predicting major challenges in the next 10–15 years. Inflation could resurface due to supply chain disruptions, reindustrialization, or unexpected events rather than monetary policy alone. Decoupling from China and reindustrialization in North America are significant but costly, long-term efforts requiring high capital expenditure. Predicting economic shifts remains challenging as market shocks often come from unforeseen factors. Reindustrialization and reshoring initiatives face efficiency and scale challenges, particularly when transitioning manufacturing from China to smaller nations like Mexico or Vietnam. The U.S. benefits from unparalleled geographic advantages, which foster economic resilience and attract global talent. Technological shifts like AI and crypto are reminiscent of the early internet, with a mix of revolutionary potential and speculative overreach. Governments may challenge crypto through taxation or legal constraints, highlighting the importance of considering geopolitical risks in such investments. Long-term capital stewardship prioritizes sustainable growth, stability, and client trust over speculative gains or first-mover risks. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investing-strategies-eric-crittenden-680

The two handed economist has a surprise prediction! Today we cover a wide range of topics such as market movements and our perceptions of the current economic and political climate. We talk our current leadership, particularly criticizing Gavin Newsom's handling of California's challenges, including wildfires and insurance issues. We also talk economic frameworks, including the effects of inflation and deflation on purchasing power. Today we discuss...

• The growing popularity of pickleball and its origins, along with its appeal to older demographics.
• Effective leadership styles by referencing Steve Jobs and Joe Rogan as examples of accountability.
• The systemic issues with inflation, focusing on how purchasing power declines over time due to currency devaluation.
• Bitcoin, gold, and real estate to illustrate inflationary trends and their impact on perceived asset values.
• Encouraging viewers to adopt a long-term perspective on financial decisions, taking into account the erosion of currency value.
• The Federal Reserve's policies aim to reduce volatility, making economic decision-making easier, albeit at the cost of consistent inflation eroding purchasing power.
• Cash outperforms in market crashes as its purchasing power increases, enabling investors to acquire discounted assets.
• The current market, based on metrics like the Schiller CAPE ratio, remains historically overvalued, raising caution for future corrections.
• Even if the market drops by half, it would still be expensive, suggesting a significant correction is required for reasonable valuations.
• A large flow of money into indexes has contributed to elevated valuations, pushing prices higher even beyond practical expectations.
• Since a significant amount of money continues to flow into the market each year, it's difficult to predict when a true market collapse might happen.
• The current market behavior shows that it could rise even further than expected, despite economic uncertainty.
• Even in extreme scenarios like COVID, when the global economy shut down, the market showed resilience, defying expectations of a larger crash.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/surprise-prediction-679

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners

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Renan Devillieres discusses the currect techological revolution in manufacturing! This revolution is caused by geopolitical shifts and technological advancements, but also brings the challenges of decoupling from China, the pressing need for new factories and energy infrastructure, and the trade-offs of reshoring and more! Renan also shared insights into the role of AI-powered tools, autonomous roots, and emerging materials in shaping modern manufacturing.

Today we discuss...

• Manufacturing is undergoing an unprecedented pace of change due to aging populations, geopolitical tensions, and technological advances.
• Decoupling from China is driving a reshoring trend in the West, with significant investments in factories and supply chains.
• Energy infrastructure is a critical bottleneck, with advancements in small nuclear reactors and decentralized grids emerging as key solutions.
• The shift toward high-utilization products, like self-driving cars and multifunctional smartphones, is reshaping manufacturing priorities.
• Reshoring and decoupling come with trade-offs, including inflation and societal adjustments, as countries aim for self-sufficiency.
• AI and manufacturing depend heavily on energy availability, with Silicon Valley now embracing nuclear power as a vital resource.
• Simulation software enables precise virtual modeling of production processes, reducing reliance on physical tests.
• Advancements in 3D printing improve resolution and applications, but material limitations prevent it from replacing traditional manufacturing processes.
• Talent shortages, particularly in mechanical engineering and manufacturing expertise, hinder progress in industrial innovation.
• Rebuilding localized supply chains, such as Tesla's vertical integration, is essential for reducing reliance on international dependencies.
• Bridging the gap between R&D and production in pharmaceuticals could drastically reduce costs and timelines.
• Healthier food systems face challenges from industrialized production, affordability concerns, and systemic quality issues.
• Consumer demand for healthier food is gradually increasing, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics.
• The food sector's transformation may be catalyzed by breakthroughs, scandals, or evolving consumer preferences.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/technological-revolution-in-manufacturing-renan-devillieres-678

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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Ready for inflation predictions? We discuss the places inflation could strike again in 2025. We also talk economic trends, inflationary patterns, and government spending's role in the economy. We also share the policy implications under different administrations, and how they will impact us going forward. Today we discuss...

• Reflection on broader U.S. economic issues, such as government spending and budgetary challenges.
• Analysis of past inflation cycles and comparisons to current monetary policy efforts.
• Speculation on future economic strategies and challenges in addressing discretionary spending.
• Younger generations often assume they won't receive Social Security benefits due to government mismanagement and financial instability.
• Reducing government spending could have deflationary effects by removing a significant portion of GDP, potentially causing recessions.
• Tax cuts are generally inflationary as they increase disposable income, but public dissatisfaction with perceived government waste limits willingness to pay higher taxes.
• Immigration impacts economic growth by providing cheap labor, but eliminating low-wage workers could lead to higher food costs and inflation.
• Energy abundance, particularly through nuclear power, is highlighted as a critical factor for economic growth and poverty alleviation.
• Analysts remain cautious about the economy's direction, advocating for managed investment risk and avoiding "all-in" strategies amidst uncertainty.
• Nuclear energy is resisted due to public concerns (e.g., NIMBY sentiment) despite its potential as a clean energy source.
• Rising energy costs directly impact household budgets, inflating expenses for housing, insurance, and transportation.
• Economic inflation has made $100,000—a salary once considered wealthy—barely sufficient to meet the average American household's annual expenses.
• Housing affordability challenges persist as property taxes and insurance costs outpace wages, undermining traditional financial planning strategies.
• Perceptions of climate change vary widely, with debates centering on human versus natural causes and the effectiveness of governmental policies.
• Conspiracy theories about disasters like wildfires gain traction amid frustrations with government responses and insurance industry practices.
• A significant portion of U.S. income inequality debates focus on the disparity between being "rich" (high income) versus "wealthy" (high net worth).

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/inflation-predictions-677

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Economist Bob Frick joins us to talk about how the housing crisis and inflation and how they have become barriers to the American Dream. Bob draws from his unique background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist to address topics such as labor market dynamics, credit card debt, and more. Bob emphasizes the critical shortage of housing and potential economic impacts of policy changes, and their possible inflationary effects. We also talk about the interplay between economic growth, housing supply, and affordability.

We discuss...

• Bob Frick shares his background as a financial journalist and behavioral economist, focusing on consumer issues like housing, cars, loans, and credit cards.
• Potential inflationary effects of policy changes, including tariffs, deportations, and reductions in legal immigration.
• Wage inflation, which has risen since the pandemic but struggles to outpace the cumulative effects of high inflation.
• Credit card debt trends, including rising balances and late payments, with potential stabilization observed in recent months.
• The lack of affordable starter homes, with rising median homeownership ages and unaffordable prices for younger buyers.
• How post-COVID low mortgage rates drove demand, compounding pre-existing housing shortages and resulting in skyrocketing home prices.
• Current housing market sales are only a quarter of pre-COVID levels, reflecting affordability and inventory issues.
• Low-interest mortgage rates from previous years contribute to a "lock-in" effect, discouraging homeowners from moving.
• Builders and flippers have reduced activity, with fewer properties meeting profitability thresholds.
• Inflation and rising mortgage rates exacerbate affordability challenges, especially for lower-income households.
• Labor market conditions remain strong but are often misinterpreted due to volatile reporting and outdated measurement methods.
• Economic forecasts are inherently unreliable, influenced by cognitive biases and behavioral tendencies toward belief in prediction.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/housing-crisis-and-inflation-bob-frick-676

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Get ready to invest because today we have your 2025 stock market predictions! Today we talk about how market predictions are typically futile due to the unpredictable nature of financial markets. We explore the trends of 2024, including the standout performers like Nvidia and Bitcoin, but don't assume that means they'll be the winners this year. We also talk active vs. passive management and investing strategies while addressing systemic issues in modern financial markets. Today we discuss...

• Annual tradition of financial predictions, and their inherent uncertainty.
• Recap of 2024's top-performing stocks and commodities, as well as the underperformers.
• Discussion on the pitfalls of market predictions and human tendencies to forecast the future.
• Critique of over-reliance on index investing and its long-term implications for market efficiency and corporate accountability.
• Free markets are beneficial but pose dangers to those unprepared, with current markets heavily influenced by Federal Reserve interventions.
• The stock market is bolstered by government actions and large institutional players, creating artificial market stability.
• Warren Buffett's underperformance in recent decades is attributed to deviating from his investment principles and managing too much capital.
• Global markets show mixed trends: Japan is recovering after a long bear market, while European and value stocks remain stagnant.
• Crypto adoption is growing, supported by corporate treasury strategies, with Bitcoin gaining popularity despite speculative concerns.
• Meme coins and other speculative assets occasionally deliver massive returns, but their long-term viability remains uncertain.
• Cryptocurrency markets showed extreme volatility, with some coins seeing significant gains since the election, while others exhibit questionable valuations.
• Oil prices have rebounded after a lackluster start to the year, with late-year momentum contributing to recent gains.
• The S&P 500 has grown modestly by 3% since the election, while gold prices have declined by 3.9%.
• Risks to global markets in 2025 include tariffs, Nvidia earnings volatility, a reaccelerating U.S. economy, and persistent inflation concerns.
• Predictions for U.S. recession in 2025 are mixed, with some indicators suggesting low probability despite ongoing uncertainties.
• The 2025 market landscape will likely feature conflicting bullish and bearish indicators, complicating clear directional forecasts.
• A recurring theme emerged: there are no inherently good or bad stocks, only good or bad prices depending on market conditions.
• Disclaimers emphasized that past performance of assets should not be interpreted as predictions for future results.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-predictions-675

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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We are joined by one of my favorite authors Charles Duhigg to discuss his new book, Supercommunicators! We also jump around to chat about other topics like the role of crypto in politics, broader technology trends and AI, and challenges in private equity. Listen to learn more about how you can be the best communicator through having a strong connection.

Today we discuss...

• Charles Duhigg's new book, Super Communicators, and reflects on his earlier works, The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better.
• Charles' background as a business journalist covering finance and technology for The New Yorker and his previous experiences at The
• New York Times and Harvard Business School.
• A recent article about Silicon Valley's and the crypto industry's political influence.
• The debate over crypto regulations, contrasting the SEC's push for securities oversight with the industry's argument for recognition as commodities.
• Long-term changes in business and daily computing due to AI.
• Private equity and the impact of high interest rates, the overabundance of funds, and the potential for a reckoning in the industry.
• Historical trends in financial products that offered high yields, such as mortgage-backed securities, SPACs, and crypto lending.
• Examples of creative financial models like lending gold to jewelers and crypto lending, with an analysis of regulatory challenges and risks.
• Introduction to the book Supercommunicators, focusing on the skills and principles of effective communication.
• Explanation of the concept of "matching conversations" to foster trust and understanding in communication.
• Stories of individuals who overcame communication challenges to become skilled influencers, emphasizing learned rather than innate abilities.
• Strategies for improving communication through empathy, alignment, and intentional practice.
• Deep questions allow people to share personal stories, creating a shared sense of understanding and vulnerability.
• Authentic listening enhances trust and alignment between conversational partners, especially in emotionally charged or conflict discussions.
• Salespeople and professionals often falter by failing to genuinely engage, focusing instead on their own agenda.
• Successfully navigating conversations involves identifying their type, aligning with the speaker's mindset, and transitioning between types collaboratively.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/supercommunicators-charles-duhigg-674

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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2024 is over so we're going to share a 2024 wrap up! We explore reflections on the holiday season and its implications for financial markets. We share some touching on lighthearted holiday moments. And we also talk some broader topics such as the role of resilience in success and more! Join us as we wrap up 2024. Today we discuss...

• Low trading volume during the holidays is an opportunity to find potential deals, though the speaker suggests this may not be worth pursuing for most.
• The annual "best year ever" planning process, focusing on setting clear, intentional goals and narrowing down focus to a single word or goal for the year.
• A lesson from Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stressing the importance of pain and suffering in building resilience and character.
• 2025 could be a rough year, urging reflection and resilience as part of the process of preparing for the challenges ahead.
• The steady rise in the average age of parents at birth, which correlates with broader economic trends, including rising dual-income households.
• The challenges of wage growth compared to the rising costs of living, and how it's harder to keep up financially.
• The divergence between real wages of good-producing workers and major sector productivity.
• Whether job market softness is causative or correlational, with significant revisions indicating weaker-than-expected job numbers.
• Housing costs are rising, but 52% of newly constructed apartments in Q2 of 2024 were rented within three months, which is down significantly from 2021.
• The cost of buying a home is now higher compared to renting in many cases, yet new apartments are not renting out quickly.
• A rise in homelessness by 18% in the past year, reflecting growing social strain.
• Market trends, including the disparity between intraday and overnight trading, highlight inefficiencies in market timing.
• A nod to Bob Farrell's "10 rules for the stock market," emphasizing the cyclical nature of markets and the dominance of sentiment over fundamentals.
• Emotions often drive investments, and people are drawn to trends like cryptocurrency, regardless of logical fundamentals.
• Cryptocurrency's rise defies fundamental analysis and is driven by factors beyond traditional market metrics.
• Successful investing requires understanding both fundamentals and technical analysis, with the latter helping to determine optimal entry points.
• A trading journal can help track investments, reasons for purchasing, and exit strategies to avoid emotional decision-making.
• Uncertainty in the market should be managed through thoughtful strategy reviews.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/2024-wrap-up-673

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Steve Foerster, a finance professor and investment historian, to talk his latest book, Trailblazers, Heroes and Crooks: Stories to Make You a Smarter Investor.

Steve shared insights into famous financial scandals, such as Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, the Bre-X gold mining fraud, and the Salad Oil Swindle that almost toppled American Express. He highlighted key lessons from these events, including the importance of skepticism, recognizing red flags, and understanding how fraudsters exploit exclusivity and credibility to deceive.

These historical stories underscore timeless lessons in vigilance and sound investment practices. Today we discuss...

• Steve Foerster, professor of finance and investment historian, discussed his background and books, including Trailblazers, Heroes, and Crooks and his work on the biography of Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe.
• The psychology of exclusivity and trust in Madoff's scheme, including his reputation as NASDAQ chairman.
• The Bre-X mining scandal of the 1990s, detailing fraudulent gold sample salting, conspiracy theories surrounding Mike De Guzman, and the challenges of evaluating mining investments.
• Mark Twain's observation on mining, "a hole in the ground with a liar on top," was used to underscore skepticism in speculative industries.
• The 1960s Salad Oil Swindle, focusing on Tino De Angelis' fraudulent practices and their near-collapse of American Express.
• Buffett's significant investment in American Express, based on its strong reputation despite the scandal, resulted in a two-and-a-half-fold return within 18 months.
• Research and perseverance can lead to great returns, as Wall Street tends to sell indiscriminately during tough times.
• Warren Buffett's support of management during a crisis helped American Express recover and solidify its reputation.
• The tension between short-term profits and long-term value was central to Buffett's approach, focusing on long-term growth.
• Hetty Green, a 19th-century investor, was a pioneering value investor who predicted market trends and became a major player in railroads and mortgages.
• During the Panic of 1907, Hetty Green predicted the failure of a major trust company and later lent to New York City, preventing bankruptcy.
• Bobby Bonilla's deferred payment contract with the New York Mets showcased the importance of understanding time value of money and opportunity cost.
• The story of Cristiano Ronaldo's snubbing of Coca-Cola at a press conference led to a $4 billion market drop, but it was actually due to the stock's ex-dividend date, not his actions.
• The Coca-Cola stock drop was an example of correlation not equaling causation, teaching the importance of distinguishing between the two in investing.

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management
• Jeff Hulett | Finance Revamp

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/https://moneytreepodcast.com/trailblazers-heroes-and-crooks-stephen-foerster-672