Richard Duncan is back to share the concept of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, an idea to drive national economic growth through large-scale public investment in emerging industries and technologies. Recent bipartisan support from both the Trump and Biden camps highlights growing momentum for this initiative, and Richard thinks it could accelerate technological breakthroughs in fields like AI, quantum computing, and biotech. Such a fund would not only help reduce the national debt but also bolster U.S. competitiveness against China’s rapid advancements in technology and defense. 

Today we discuss...

• The concept of a U.S. sovereign wealth fund, a proposal he has supported for years as a means of boosting national economic growth.
• Concerns that government programs already incentivize private sector growth, like R&D tax credits and preferential funding, but face inefficiencies.
• How a U.S. sovereign wealth fund would act as a venture capital source for private companies, similar to successful models in Singapore.
• How under-investment could allow China to become the dominant superpower, citing parallels to Europe's unpreparedness for Hitler’s rise.
• The effects of inflated debt and the fragility of the U.S. economy, highlighting government intervention as a key reason it hasn’t collapsed.
• If credit contracts, a recession could turn into a depression, risking significant economic instability.
• Each time private sector defaults threaten contraction, such as in 2008 and 2020, government intervention prevents economic collapse.
• Advocates of austerity overlook that spending cuts can cripple consumption, investment, and job creation, leading to economic decline.
• The speaker argues that large-scale investment, rather than austerity, is essential for growth and national security.
• America's economic resilience stems partly from government debt; alternatives could risk societal collapse.
• Future U.S. prosperity and competitiveness, especially against China, depend on substantial investment in science and technology.
• The risk of economic misallocation, using overemphasis on pharmaceuticals as an example.
• Balancing private sector decisions and government financing could ensure effective investment in essential industries.
• The U.S. must innovate in energy, particularly nuclear and fusion, to meet growing demands from sectors like AI.
• America's past reliance on globalization reduced inflation, but future economic stability may require adapting to changing global conditions.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/sovereign-wealth-fund-richard-duncan-656 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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There's a problem with the election and it's not just about you, it's me too. Our conversation today highlights how U.S. political party priorities have evolved with shifts in censorship power dynamics now seen in tech and government interactions. Voter turnout patterns by state reveal high engagement in blue states, sparking a discussion on potential impacts and a reflection on whether blockchain could offer fairer and more secure elections.

Today we discuss...

• Most recent information is likely to be unreliable, especially with the election looming.
• Historical context regarding political party evolution highlights significant shifts in the Democratic and Republican parties over the years.
• The potential for implementing blockchain technology in voting is suggested as a way to enhance transparency and prevent voting irregularities.
• When investing in the market, your biases—whether bullish or bearish—can distort your perception of reality.
• Confirmation bias leads investors to seek information that supports their beliefs while ignoring opposing viewpoints.
• Historical examples highlight how both individuals and groups can rationalize harmful choices based on their biases.
• Recent trends show a belief that investing solely in the S&P 500 or real estate is the only way to achieve financial success, neglecting historical performance data.
• Many investors, including Warren Buffett, are reevaluating their holdings based on new data, which suggests current market valuations may be overly optimistic.
• Historical performance metrics show that various asset classes, including gold and emerging markets, may outperform current popular investments.
• A shareholder proposal suggests Microsoft should consider holding Bitcoin instead of cash, reflecting a shift towards cryptocurrency among corporations.
• Leveraging Bitcoin or any asset carries significant risks, particularly if market conditions change abruptly.
• Despite increasing investments in Bitcoin, its price has remained relatively stable, indicating complex market dynamics.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/problem-with-the-election-655 

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Today I'm joined by my good friend, The Tax Goddess to discuss the Profit First system. Shauna Wekherlien's background in helping people legally minimize taxes and maximize savings and focuses on the Profit First system, a financial management approach for businesses and individuals. We explain how this system promotes discipline by prioritizing profit before expenses. Shauna also shares strategies to reduce tax bills legally. Today we discuss...

• Shauna Wekherlein shares her work as a tax strategist, helping people manage money and keep it away from the government legally.
• The Profit First system is a simple financial framework for both businesses and individuals.
• Shauna explains the process of setting aside a percentage of revenue for profit before paying expenses.
• Profit First encourages using multiple bank accounts to separate funds for profit, taxes, and other expenses.
• Kirk shares his positive experience with the Profit First system, calling it life-changing.
• How the system is customizable, allowing users to start small and increase their profit percentage over time.
• Shauna emphasizes the importance of having a separate bank account for taxes.
• The value of financial strategies to reduce tax bills while still ensuring funds are available for payments.
• Shauna highlights how business owners and individuals can use the Profit First method to achieve personal and financial goals.
• The conversation covers common financial challenges like lifestyle inflation and debt, and how Profit First can help avoid them.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-profit-first-system-shauna-wekherlien-654 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection

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Where is Bitcoin going next? Today we discuss Bitcoin and how it's currently crashing and what that means for it's future! We also talk about how consumer confidence fluctuates based on political affiliation and reflect on how political leanings shape people's perception of reality. We analyze charts "chart crimes," emphasizing how misleading technical analysis can be. We also touch on America's ever growing debt.

Today we discuss...

• There's only two weeks between Halloween and the election!
• The University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index reveals an inverse correlation between political party expectations based on who is in power.
• How political bias colors people's perception of reality.
• A shift in political leanings of tech executives is observed, with a historical trend toward Democrat support but a recent swing toward conservatism in 2024.
• The current state of leadership, with a lack of strong leaders across political lines.
• The concept of "chart crimes", where misleading technical analysis charts often deceive inexperienced investors.
• Bitcoin technical analysis is debunked, explaining that chart setups are not guaranteed predictions.
• The U.S. may face bankruptcy within 5 to 10 years, which could trigger significant inflation and financial hardship.
• The velocity of money and the trust in currency are key indicators to watch for potential hyperinflation or financial instability.
• Bitcoin's recent rise is correlated with an increase in M2 money supply, and both Bitcoin and gold are seen as potential hedges against inflation.
• There's uncertainty about how Bitcoin will perform in future recessions since it hasn't faced a major economic downturn yet.
• Consumers are struggling with high core inflation, impacting necessary expenses like utilities and food, despite overall inflation rates declining.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/where-is-bitcoin-going-653 

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Jenny Groberg joins us to share how she has because a master of balancing business and family. Her journey led her to starting a consulting business from home while raising five children and navigating financial challenges due to her husband's medical school and residency. Jenny talks financial literacy, highlighting how she and her husband quickly paid off $250,000 in loans by living below their means. 

We discuss... 

• Jenny Groberg is a mother of five, married for 21 years, whose husband's medical school and residency led her to start her own business out of necessity.
• She started consulting from home and built a successful business employing hundreds of women across the US who also work remotely from home.
• Jenny's company taps into a highly educated female workforce, breaking barriers in finance and challenging traditional male-dominated spaces.
• She is passionate about empowering women, especially during times of economic hardship, as many women are returning to work due to rising costs and inflation.
• Jenny highlights the flexibility and adaptability of women who juggle family and professional responsibilities while navigating challenges like maternity and remote work.
• The accounting field is shrinking, but Jenny sees opportunities in helping businesses improve financial literacy and manage their finances better.
• She emphasizes the importance of focusing on profitability over growth and ensuring businesses maintain financial discipline for long-term success.
• Jenny shares her personal story of paying off $250,000 in student loans in two years by maintaining a strict budget and avoiding lifestyle inflation.
• She believes that staying out of debt and managing finances conservatively can lead to long-term financial freedom and stability.
• Jenny encourages business owners to regularly monitor their financials, manage payroll efficiently, and make conservative financial decisions to ensure business survival and growth.
• She warns against relying on adjustable-rate loans and stresses the importance of saving for unexpected financial changes.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/balancing-business-and-family-jenny-groberg-652 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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We reveal the secret tax the government is hiding from us! We also talk the misunderstandings of inflation and all it's complexities. We also help you learn more with key inflation-related terms, such as deflation, disinflation, and hyperinflation, clarifying that hyperinflation occurs when public trust in a currency is lost. And we also argue that inflation is influenced not just by money printing, but also by the velocity of money—the rate at which money circulates within an economy. 

We discuss... 

• Government-published CPI (Consumer Price Index) is the gold standard for measuring inflation, but there may be incentives to manipulate it.
• Shadow Stats shows inflation metrics based on older CPI calculations, suggesting a higher inflation rate than reported.
• Historical inflation rates in the 70s and 80s were much higher than today's target of 2%, challenging the notion of what's considered "normal."
• Money velocity is key to understanding inflation, as low velocity can counteract the effects of money printing.
• New money creation typically leads to inflation.
• Consumer price inflation visibly increases the price of goods and services, reducing purchasing power.
• When wages don't rise alongside prices, it squeezes the middle class and working class, making them poorer.
• Quantitative easing leads to asset price inflation but not consumer goods inflation.
• Stimulus checks and COVID relief caused consumer price inflation by increasing the money supply.
• Globalization has caused deflation by reducing the cost of goods.
• Technological advances are deflationary by making products cheaper and more efficient.
• Declining populations can lead to deflation, which worries governments with debt-based economies.
• Immigration helps prevent population decline but has complex economic and cultural implications.
• Despite recent inflationary spikes, the current trend is toward disinflation.
• U.S. debt has grown dramatically, with the annual increase accelerating in recent years.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/secret-tax-651

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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Jeff Hulett shares how a proper personal finance education can build the habits that grow lifelong wealth. Our cognitive biases impact financial decision-making, often work against us. He highlights the role of habits and commitment devices in overcoming these biases, while also discussing the dangers of modern marketing and the manipulation of data. We also touch on how evolutionary biology still influences our financial behaviors today. 

We discuss... 

• Jeff Hewlett shares his background in finance, mathematics, economics, and experience in banking and consulting.
• Jeff discusses his involvement in AI, machine learning, and how these technologies have been evolving over decades.
• He talks about his current role leading Personal Finance Reimagined, a platform focused on decision-making and financial education.
• How wealth distribution challenges are attributed to evolutionary biology and consumerism.
• Jeff emphasizes the importance of creating good financial habits and using commitment devices, such as robo-advisors.
• AI and its impact on decision-making, especially its potential for persuasion.
• Jeff highlights the significance of aligning decision processes with natural human tendencies, like binary decisions.
• How the U.S. education finance system preys on availability bias, deferring loan payments to the future while hiding present costs.
• College prices are excessively high, leading to concerns about the return on investment (ROI) for students.
• The value of a college degree is more about demonstrating the ability to work hard and sustain effort over four years.
• Community college can be a cost-effective route to a degree, demonstrating both financial savvy and resilience.
• There's a cognitive bias known as "time discounting" that leads people to struggle with understanding the compounding value of time.
• Confirmation bias affects political and social views, often reinforced by media echo chambers.
• Media, both legacy and social, plays a significant role in shaping biased worldviews, sometimes feeding incomplete or selective information.
• There's a growing generational divide in media trust, with older generations more likely to trust media than younger ones.
• The rise of narrowcasting in media has led to the creation of echo chambers where people only hear confirming viewpoints.
• Consumers of free media or social platforms are often the "product" being monetized, even when they think they aren’t paying for content.
• AI and technology add to the complexity of discerning truth, as biases are baked into data sources, and deep fakes further obscure reality.
• The challenge for society is figuring out how to discern accurate information amid pervasive bias and misinformation.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/personal-finance-education-jeff-hulett-650 

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection
• Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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Hurricane Helene was devastating, and it impacted so much more than just Asheville. Hurricanes can cause major claims, leading to a temporary dip in stock prices for these insurers, creating a chance to buy at a discount. Although insurers face huge costs when these disasters strike, they benefit from collecting high premiums that continue to rise in coastal areas. Only time will tell how the impacted areas, the insurance companies, and the stock market will recover in the aftermath.

We discuss... 

• Hurricane Helene and the other hurricane that is on it's way.
• The opportunity for investors to buy discounted property and casualty insurance stocks during high-claim seasons.
• Property casualty insurers’ strength lies in their ability to collect premiums and invest the float before claims are paid.
• Warren Buffett’s investment strategy with property casualty insurance, leveraging the float for long-term investments like Coca-Cola.
• Buffett’s investment prowess and how insurers gain an advantage by not needing to borrow money to grow.
• The complex nature of analyzing property casualty insurers, which requires specific metrics.
• A note on Hurricane Helene and the financial impact of other costly hurricanes.
• Update on the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts and fluctuating market expectations.
• Warning about the unreliability of government data, especially close to elections, and how market participants respond to such data.
• People are uncertain about market trends, and data may not always be reliable.
• Data manipulation in government reports has occurred, so numbers should be taken as guides, not definitive facts.
• A significant number of government employees were hired in September, influencing employment statistics.
• Elections add volatility to markets, with uncertainty often causing swings before stabilizing afterward.
• Corporate media often shapes narratives, leaving people feeling frustrated and distrustful of information.
• Extremist factions in politics are gaining influence, with candidates catering to these groups for votes.
• Many voters align with their party regardless of the candidate, reducing the significance of "undecided" voters.
• Wall Street prefers certainty, with market trends stabilizing after election results are confirmed.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hurricane-helene-649

Josh Radman joins us today to discuss a little discussed topic on Money Tree Podcast: Decoding RSU, ISO and NQ SOs. He also shares how government programs and how they impact our labor market. He shares an example from local Broogers, which struggled to find staff and often received resumes from unemployable candidates. Josh also touches on how employment data has been revised to show many jobs are part-time or within the government, driven by new regulations. Shifting gears, Josh explores the idea that large AI models, like ChatGPT, might be throttled to prevent them from predicting the future, potentially disrupting markets. He also highlights the critical need for clean, reliable data for AI to function properly, as  current government data is often inaccurate or manipulated. 

Today we discuss... 

• Josh Radman shares his background, from General Mills to tech companies like Walmart e-commerce, where he encountered confusion around equity compensation.
• How his frustration with understanding ISOs, RSUs, and NSOs led him to found Presidio Advisors, a firm focused on helping millennials with equity compensation.
• He emphasizes the importance of balancing tax considerations with investment risk and prioritizing financial goals.
• Radman discusses regret minimization as a tool for decision-making, helping clients navigate the risks of equity compensation.
• Companies often fail to educate employees about equity compensation due to legal concerns, leaving employees to navigate complex tax and financial decisions.
• The complexity of ISOs, NSOs, and RSUs requires advanced planning and understanding, especially when managing liquidity events like IPOs.
• How long-term capital gains tax rates are preferable (0%, 15%, or 20%) compared to ordinary income tax rates (up to 37%).
• Employees often face a limited post-termination exercise period (typically three months) to exercise stock options after leaving a company.
• It’s important to assess short-term, mid-term, and long-term cash needs when considering exercising stock options.
• Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) are taxed as ordinary income upon vesting without requiring cash outlay to exercise.
• A common misconception is that you must hold RSUs for a year to achieve optimal tax treatment; this is not necessary.
• Employees often underestimate total exposure to their company’s stock due to both explicit and implicit risks.
• Cognitive biases, such as the endowment effect, can lead individuals to overvalue their RSUs and resist selling.
• Market returns are skewed, with a small number of companies generating significant returns; diversification is essential to mitigate risk.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/decoding-rsu-iso-nqso-josh-radman-648

Today's Panelists:

• Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
• Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance

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Election season upon us so you know that there will be an irrational impact of politics that is going to hit the market this fall. We also discuss the aging of political figures like Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and the impact of stress on leaders. We explore generational cycles, particularly the "Fourth Turning" theory, and reflect on media influence and propaganda, both in the U.S. and globally.

Today we discuss...

• The U.S. presidential candidates and the physical and mental demands of the campaign trail, especially for older politicians.
• They explore the concept of "fourth turning" and generational cycles of conflict, predicting ongoing societal tensions.
• Global perspectives on the U.S. are discussed, contrasting media portrayals and public opinions abroad
• How "truth" is often subjective, shaped by perspective and opinion, especially in political contexts.
• Both sides in a debate typically view the other as misinformed or evil, leading to a polarized environment.
• The upcoming election period is expected to be filled with misinformation and humor, as political discourse tends to devolve.
• Investment markets exhibit similar behavior, where individuals often believe they can predict outcomes, leading to misguided confidence.
• Historical economic events, such as the housing market in the late '90s and 2007, demonstrate patterns of irrational behavior among investors.
• Wall Street often presents a biased perspective, promoting buying to maintain market stability and profits.
• People become emotionally invested in their stocks or political affiliations, which clouds their judgment and objectivity.
• Discussions of gold, silver, and cryptocurrency reveal that tangible assets are often viewed as safe havens in uncertain economic climates.
• Emotional decision-making plays a significant role in how individuals approach investments, especially concerning real estate versus stocks.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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 For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/irrational-impact-of-politics-647