Moving Markets

Markets stumbled after a newspaper report suggested that OpenAI's annualised revenues could fall well short of previous expectations. Overnight, however, sentiment improved as doubts emerged over the accuracy of the report. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected 30-year US Treasury auction helped drive yields lower, providing additional support for equities alongside easing oil prices. In today's episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, who shares his views on the US dollar, gold, and the emerging market currencies he believes offer the most compelling opportunities.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

Markets are being driven by developments in bond markets on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, concerns over French public finances weigh on sentiment, while in the US, inflation worries and a well-received Treasury auction triggered sharp moves in yields. Other topics include the challenges facing European carmakers in China, the resilience of US equities, and SpaceX looking to tap the bond market. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, discusses the apparent disconnect between the recovery in Middle Eastern oil exports and persistently high oil prices, as well as the positive momentum in the electric vehicle market.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs in a broad-based rally, while lower bond yields and oil prices supported European equities. Overnight, renewed Middle East tensions pushed oil prices higher and weighed on Asian markets. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, notes that French fiscal risks are justified, but markets already reflect a fairly pessimistic outlook. The key question is whether the situation in France spills over to other eurozone countries. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, highlights the high hurdle for next week's US earnings season. Key areas to watch include bank earnings, hyperscaler capital expenditure, and signs of AI-driven productivity gains extending beyond the technology sector.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets started the week on a strong note, with both European and US stock indices posting solid gains. France proved the notable exception, however, as French equities and government bonds came under pressure amid growing concerns about the government’s ability to rein in the budget deficit ahead of the 2027 elections. In today’s episode, we are joined by Dr Damien Ng from our Next Generation Research team, who shares his latest insights into the remarkable scientific advances and shifting landscape in the fight against obesity, one of the most significant healthcare themes of our time.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

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Equity markets rallied on Friday after a surprisingly weak US jobs report fuelled hopes that the Federal Reserve may remain on hold for longer. However, enthusiasm was tempered by another rise in Treasury yields, with the US 10-year yield hovering near multi-decade highs. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, keeping investors focused on energy markets despite a coordinated release of emergency fuel reserves by G7 countries. In today's show, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his views on European equities, the euro, and what the current market environment means for investors.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content

With the US 10-year treasury yield recently crossing the 5% threshold and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, bond investors are facing heightened volatility and a rapidly shifting landscape. Are higher yields a warning sign of greater risk, or do they present new opportunities for portfolio construction?

In this episode, Rishabh Saksena, Co-Head of Global Asset Class Specialists at Julius Baer, is joined by Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research. Together, they dissect the drivers behind the recent surge in yields, the implications of monetary policy repricing, and the nuanced impact of a more hawkish Fed across the yield curve. The conversation covers duration preferences, the outlook for inflation and credit, the appeal of US investment-grade bonds, and the effects of increased bond issuance from sectors such as hyperscalers.

This episode was recorded on September 28, 2026.

• (00:00) - Introduction

Markets endured a turbulent start to the fourth quarter as a global bond sell-off pushed US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2002 and intensified concerns over French public finances. European equities came under pressure, while US stocks recovered late in the session. Oil prices surged on supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, adding to inflation worries ahead of today's closely watched US payrolls report. In today's show, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, discusses the outlook for the US dollar, the euro and precious metals.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

European inflation surprised to the upside, driven by energy prices, while softer US inflation data offered some reassurance for markets. However, the bond market stress continued with Treasury yields rising, weighing on equities in their final stretch of the quarter. Asian markets opened Q4 positively, led by technology shares after Micron's strong revenue outlook. Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his insights about Asia and what he expects from the region in the final innings of the year.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content