In this final episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Hannah Wise sits down with Yves Bonzon, Group Chief Investment Officer at Julius Baer, to explore the secular outlook for the decade ahead. They discuss why interest rates have normalized at current levels, whether the AI investment cycle can avoid the fate of the dot-com bust, what China's balance sheet recession means for global investors, and the geopolitical risk that keeps Yves awake at night: waking up with stranded assets.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week, but it also increased its forecast for 2026 GDP, from 1.9% to 2.1%, hardly a rate that would necessitate a long string of further cuts. Multiple forces are pulling the economy in different directions, so the 10-year treasury yield will likely continue to move in the same wide band it’s been in since 2023. Recent local elections have tilted strongly in favour of Democrats, and Trump’s approval ratings are low. It is possible next year’s mid-term elections go strongly in the Democrats’ favour, and the administration has less power than it does now. With economically-sensitive stock market indices like mid and small caps, the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 equal-weighted index all breaking to new highs, it’s difficult to be pessimistic.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Chinese equities are entering 2026 on a strong footing, with policy tailwinds from the upcoming Five-Year Plan expected to sustain momentum despite recent consolidation. While tech-led rallies have dominated, attention is shifting toward domestic consumption as policymakers prioritise demand-side reforms—a potential turnaround for lagging consumer sectors if stimulus materialises.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over stretched valuations in US tech and AI names underscore the case for diversifying into non-US markets, such as China and Japan. Structural drivers, including a weaker U.S. dollar and gradual yuan appreciation, add to the appeal. On commodities, strong fundamentals and AI-driven demand for industrial metals signal further upside, building on this year’s broad-based rally in materials.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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As 2025 draws to a close, investors are reflecting on a year that tested their emotional discipline – from Liberation Day tariffs to geopolitical events that sent markets into turmoil. What separated those who thrived from those who struggled? 

In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Helen Freer sits down with Yves Klenk, Head of Client Coverage and Advisory at Julius Baer, to discuss what worked well and what worked less well this year, why resisting the urge to react emotionally was crucial, and what lies ahead for 2026. They explore the ongoing AI story and how to diversify exposure along the value chain, the case for reducing USD concentration, and why currencies like the Australian dollar and structured products deserve a closer look as investors position for the year ahead.

• (00:11) - Introduction

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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ADP’s tally of 120,000 small firm job losses in November, and a decline in September Core PCE inflation, both help the case for a rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this Wednesday. On the markets front, Wall Street strategists are forecasting an average of 9% return for the S&P 500 index next year. Two technical indicators suggest an even larger return is probable.
Meanwhile, it’s almost impossible to keep up with all that’s going on in the world of Artificial Intelligence, but what’s clear is the stock market favours AI adopters. Interestingly, the share prices of companies citing AI on Q3 conference calls have returned 14% on average year-to-date, vs. an average return of 6% for those that didn’t cite it.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Signs of a slowing economy, and speculation of a very dovish new Federal Reserve chairman in May 2026, are behind the futures market pricing in substantial rate cuts over the next year. Historically, substantially lower rates weaken the dollar and boost precious metals. Silver has made a new high and has formed what is arguably the most bullish technical pattern, William O’Neil’s “cup and handle” formation.

On the technology front, Alphabet's low-cost semiconductors present unexpected competition for Nvidia. Things like that will determine the performance of technology companies’ share prices for the foreseeable future. Longer term, the “Holy Grail” that technology companies seek is Artificial General Intelligence - AI that thinks like a human. Its impact to humanity could be very beneficial, or deeply detrimental.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Japan is undergoing a profound economic transformation under its first female Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, whose growth-focused "Sanaenomics" policy drives investment in critical areas such as infrastructure, tech and energy. After decades of deflation, inflation has reached 2.9%, supported by a robust 5% wage growth, boosting consumption and corporate earnings.

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann speaks with Louis Chua, Asia equity research analyst at Julius Baer, about the investment landscape for Japan, against a backdrop of structural corporate reforms, strengthening earnings, and rising shareholder returns, and explores the opportunities and risks to watch ahead.

• (01:25) - What can we expect from Sanae Takaichi’s agenda?

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Just weeks after hawkish Federal Reserve commentary dimmed December rate cut hopes, new dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams have boosted rate cut odds back to 63%. With policymakers seemingly divided, a tied vote on the December 10 FOMC meeting – unprecedented in its history – remains possible.
Markets remain uneasy in the meantime, with concerns on high AI spending and a Bitcoin bear market weighing on sentiment. Technical signals add to the unease with the S&P 500 and tech sector indices showing signs of a “head and shoulders” pattern, a bearish sign. Additionally, a leaked draft of President Trump’s Ukraine peace plan indicates the unfreezing of some Russian financial assets confiscated by the west, potentially implicating gold demand.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

Subscribe to Moving Markets on Spotify
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As markets evolve and the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces new challenges, are hedge funds becoming the next core allocation for resilient investing? In this episode of Beyond Markets, William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists at Julius Baer for Asia and the Middle East, speaks with Joe Dowling, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Blackstone Multi-Asset Investing (BXMA), about how the endowment model is reshaping portfolio construction.

Joe shares insights on why institutions have leaned heavily into alternatives, how multi-strategy hedge funds are delivering uncorrelated returns, and what private investors can learn from the playbook of elite endowments. From risk management to the “democratisation of alternatives”, this episode explores how hedge funds may just be part of the new 60/40 for long-term investors seeking durability and diversification.

This episode was recorded on 28 October 2025.

• (00:10) - – The endowment model

The Beyond Markets podcast channel is wrapping up on a high note at the end of 2025. But do not worry! The conversation continues on our podcast Moving Markets by Julius Baer, where we'll be sharing fresh insights and analysis on current market developments.

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Following hawkish commentary from six Federal Reserve presidents and promising indicators of October labour and consumer data, the market no longer expects a December rate cut. Meanwhile, recent technology stock performance suggests the market increasingly distinguishes between sustainable and speculative growth, and leverage. Over in Asia, China's stock market is supported by the country’s leadership in electrification, more exports of high-technology products and services, a slowly appreciating Renminbi, and governmental efforts to promote equity investment and corporate governance reforms. 

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.