Beyond Markets

Following the shift in the political landscape in the US, we now expect higher nominal growth in the US driven by both real growth and inflation.  Given less room for rate cuts by the Fed next year, we now expect yields to stay higher for longer and Fed funds rate to be above neutral for next year. There are still many moving parts and it is too early to quantify the consequences of the political shift in terms of trade policy and fiscal policy. Our message is investors now benefit from a better starting point in bond markets, compared to a few months back and also refined our risk budget in line with our core assumption of higher nominal growth in the US.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Asia at Julius Baer, discusses the near term outlook and strategy for fixed income into 2025.

In this episode of Beyond Markets, Carsten Menke and Norbert Rucker, Next Generation Research experts at Julius Baer, discuss the boom in AI and data centres and what this means for energy and the econom

The S&P fell 2% last week, but it is still 1.5% higher following the Donald Trump’s victory at the 2024 US presidential election. Serious change looks set to be coming under a second Trump administration. The new administration will implement a libertarian vision, which includes economic freedom, and thus a push for freer markets, and a leaner and more efficient government promised by the new “Department of Government Efficiency” limits the risk of unproductive allocation of capital.

On inflation and interest rates, the October consumer and producer price inflation numbers both came out hotter than expected. The most recent initial jobless claims reading was also at the lowest since May. Such developments call into question the narrative that interest rates are going to continue declining at the faster pace expected a few months ago.

This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

The past week has been marked by three major global events: the US presidential election, Federal Reserve meeting and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting in China. 
In this episode, Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, breaks down each of these developments and the impact on the global economy and investments.

US stocks surged after Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential election victory — but what does this mean for the future of the markets?

In this episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research and William Fong, Co-Head, Alternatives & Strategic Solutions Asia at Julius Baer, explore their outlook on equities, bonds, and other key asset classes, examining where opportunities and risks may lie ahead.

• (00:00) - Intro

In this monthly China update, our experts discuss the recent shift in sentiment around Chinese equities, expected policy changes from the National People's Congress meeting, and the critical factors in solving China's structural challenges. They also examine the implications of a Trump or Harris presidency on China's economy and global supply chains, as well as the outlook for the Chinese Yuan and gold.

This episode is presented by Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, with Hong Hao, Partner and Chief Economist at GROW Investment Group.

In this episode of The Week in Markets, equities analyst Jen-Ai Chua provides an in-depth look at the current landscape as we approach this week’s US Presidential election. 
We also explore the factors supporting potential upside for stocks, including strong year-end seasonality, anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and corporate earnings continuing to hold up.

US equities and gold continue to make new historical highs, while markets approach a pivotal period with major upcoming events. From key Q3 US earnings reports, the US Presidential election to China’s NPC congress and the aftermath of Japan’s general election. What are the investment implications of these events and how can investors navigate the uncertainties ahead?

This episode is presented by Eric Mak from the Equity Research Asia team at Julius Baer.

In this episode, we take a look at the US fixed income markets coming out of the third quarter of 2024, and what to expect in this space as we near the November 5 US presidential election. We also briefly discuss how other G10 and Emerging Market central banks have shifted following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut in September. It’s a different story in China, however, with its central bank just announcing reductions in the Loan Prime Rates.

This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

After a strong September for equities, the question now is if we can expect a year-end rally. An analysis of the charts provides a clear answer. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis at Julius Baer, talks to Helen Freer about the significance of the steepening yield curve and the depreciating US dollar for equities, as well as which regions and sectors are set to outperform over the remainder of the year.

00:38 – Introduction to speakers and topic
01:00 – What is technical analysis?
03:03 – What do September’s equity market returns mean for the rest of the year?
04:34 – What does a depreciating US dollar mean for equities?
06:02 – How significant is the steepening yield curve?
07:46 – Which regions are set to perform better?
08:30 – What’s next for Chinese equities?
09:35 – Which sectors should do well now?
10:25 – After reaching new all-time highs, how is gold set to perform now?
11:30 – Closing remarks

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