NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 5th May 2026

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President Trump’s Operation Freedom, designed to escort vessels trapped in the Gulf, has got off to a shaky start. Iran claims they attacked a US warship (which the US denies), but nobody seems game enough to traverse the strait of Hormuz. Meanhwile the UAE has seen a number of drone attacks, So markets are uneasy today. On the home front, the RBA is very likely to lift rates today. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to talk through it all.

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Monday 4th May 2026

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It certainly seems likely that the war between Iran and USA/Israel will continue for some time to come with Donald Trump likely to reject Iran’s 17-point peace deal claiming that they haven't paid the price yet for the damage they've done over the decades. Still, as Phil discusses with NAB's Rodrigo Catril US equities continued to climb hitting new highs again on Friday. The US President has also taken aim at Europe claiming that they are not following the terms of the trade agreement and saying that he will impose a 25% tariff on European cars as well as pulling out 5000 troops from Germany. This week a lot of the focus will be on the RBA, and non-farm payrolls from the US on Friday, with a swag of European data in the middle of the week as well.

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Friday1st May 2026

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Phil is joined by veteran energy analyst Neil Atkinson to peel back the curtain on a global energy system pushed to the brink by the ongoing conflict in the Gulf. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, they discuss why the market’s hope for $80 oil later this year may be a "pipeline dream" given that actual physical cargoes are already fetching upwards of $150 a barrel. The conversation dives into the structural shifts reshaping the industry—from the UAE’s seismic departure from OPEC to why major oil giants like BP and Shell are pivoting back to their "fossil fuel basics" to satisfy shareholder demand. Whether it’s the looming threat of aviation fuel shortages in Europe or Australia’s dangerously low 32-day fuel reserve, this episode is an essential guide to understanding the true, long-term cost of a prolonged geopolitical firestorm on the world economy.

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Friday 1st May 2026

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Oil rose to its highest level since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz before retracing and ending up lower than a day ago. Why? Phil talks to NAB’s Ken Crompton. Certainly it's not due to progress on peace talks, quite the reverse. But equity markets have risen on the back of healthy tech earnings results – although some did better than others. The Bank of England and ECB both kept rates on hold but made noises to suggest that rate hikes could be on the agenda if we see second round effects from rising oil prices. And the Yen rose sharply, with the suggestion that its down to intervention by the MoF. US ISM is the main data point tonight.

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Thursday 30th April 2026

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Oil continues to lurch higher, getting close to $120 this session, the highest since the closure of the Hormuz Strait. There’re no signs of progress, infact President Trump is indicating he’d prefer to wait until his blockade has an impact on Iran. That could take some time. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates on hold in Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair, with a divided board. Several objected to the neutral tone of the guidance, which suggested the next move is more likely to be down that up. Meanwhile Powell announced he will stay as a Governor for now. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to discuss this, also a dovish hold from the bank of Canada, and a look ahead to the ECB and Bank of Enfgland. Sand don’t forget the mega-cap earnings coming up.

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Wednesday 29th April 2026

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Markets are wobbling, oil is surging, and the world’s central banks are lining up for a big week — but nothing is quite behaving the way you’d expect. Today Phil and NAB’s Sally Auld unpack why oil keeps climbing even as the UAE walks out of OPEC, how OpenAI’s internal stumbles have rattled global equities, and why consumer confidence is mysteriously improving just as fuel prices bite. We’ll dig into the Bank of Japan’s split decision, the jump in euro‑area inflation expectations, and what Australia’s CPI means when “core” no longer tells the whole story. And what to watch as the Fed, BoC, ECB and BoE all step up this week.

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Tuesday 28th April 2026

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Its another session where equities are rising – albeit only slightly – whilst oil pushes higher. Talks between the US and Iran are not progressing, with the US President suggesting Tehran calls him when they have something to discuss. Meanwhile the Straits of Hormuz remains effectively closed to shipping. It’s in this environment that all central banks this week – the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, the Fed and the ECB, are expected to keep rates on hold. Yet UK bond yields have risen more than most overnight, NAB’s Ray Attrill explains why. Plus, a busy week for earnings, with most of the major tech players reporting.

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Friday 22nd April 2026

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, Kylie Willment, Chief Investment Officer at Mercer, joins Phil Dobbie to explain why their core investment strategy remains sound even as the global landscape becomes increasingly volatile. While Willment emphasizes that their fundamental long-term approach is right, she discusses the necessary "adjustments at the margin" being made to navigate current geopolitical firestorms and the shift toward "just-in-case" economic resilience. The discussion highlights that private and overseas investments remain valid and essential components of a modern portfolio, provided they are backed by rigorous asset-level research and robust protections against persistent inflation risk. From the "massive tailwind" from the energy transition to the relative insulation of the U.S. economy, Willment provides a deep dive into how super funds are evolving to protect member returns in a "messier" era for central banks and global trade.

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Friday 24th April 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss a significant escalation in the U.S. naval blockade, which has now expanded into the Indian Ocean with the seizure of tankers carrying Iranian oil. This move follows the earlier strikes in the Gulf and indicates a broadening of the conflict's reach, which has seen S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower, and oil prices pushing higher, The discussion also highlights a stark economic divergence reflected in the latest Flash PMIs: while the U.S. continues to show resilience with both manufacturing and services remaining above 50, the Eurozone and UK have slumped deeper into contractionary territory. 

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Thursday 23rd April 2026

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In today’s NAB Morning Call, Skye Masters joins Phil to analyse why U.S. equity markets appear to be "looking through the fog of war" as they push to new all-time highs—with the S&P 500 breaking above 7,000—even as oil prices and bond yields remain significantly elevated. As the conflict in the Gulf persists, Skye questions this "curious" appetite for risk and whether investors are underestimating the long-term structural shifts toward higher costs and localized resilience. The discussion covers the latest UK CPI data for March, which demonstrates the immediate inflationary impact of the conflict, and looks ahead to today’s PMI releases, which are expected to further highlight the economic divergence between a robust U.S. and a softening European landscape.

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