NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 22nd April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

In the April 22, 2026, edition of the NAB Morning Call, Gavin Friend joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a shift toward "risk-off" sentiment as the high-stakes peace talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to have stalled. With JD Vance spotted back in Washington rather than at the negotiating table in Islamabad, and Iran officially declining to attend today's scheduled meeting, the market is bracing for the end of the ceasefire deadline tonight. The conversation highlights a jump in oil prices, with Brent crude nearly touching $100 a barrel, alongside a rise in bond yields and the U.S. Dollar. Beyond the conflict, they break down robust U.S. retail sales for March, a surprising drop in UK unemployment to 4.9%, and Kevin Warsh’s testimony before the Senate, where he staunchly defended the Fed's independence, saying he is no sock puppet to the President.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 21st April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Geopolitical tensions are rising again, following a U.S. attack on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Gulf, which sent oil prices jumping 5–6% with Brent nearing $95 a barrel. While JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for high-stakes peace talks, a question remains as to whether Tehran will participate. Kevin Warsh’s pre-prepared speech to the senate banking committee spoke of a continuance of monetary policy free from the control of government. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through all this with Phil, plus Canadian CPI, and the significance of tonight’s US retail sales numbers.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 20th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There were strong risk-on moves on Friday on the news that the Hormuz Strait had reopened. Since then, Iran has fired on vessels, and the Straits have closed again. But new talks are on the horizon if, as NAB’s Sally Auld puts it, they show up. The ceasefire officially ends Wednesday but markets aren’t pricing for President Trump’s threat to take out all  energy plants and bridges  Sally talks about how central banks are viewing the conflict and looks ahead to today’s CPI for Canada.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th April 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, veteran macroeconomist Phil Suttle joins Phil Dobbie to dissect the "unbridled enthusiasm" of global markets as they seemingly look past a U.S. naval blockade and a precarious energy crisis to push the S&P 500 to new record highs. Suttle warns of a stark internal divergence within the U.S. economy, where a concentrated investment boom in AI and tech masks the reality of flat real disposable income for the average household. The conversation traverses the globe, examining the strategic "payoff" of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the structural hurdles stifling European productivity. Central to the discussion is the "Mike Tyson" moment for central bankers—dealing with the reality of being "hit in the mouth" by supply shocks—as they weigh the necessity of "nipping inflation in the bud" against a world transitioning from "just-in-time" efficiency to a high-cost era of building buffers and resilience.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 17th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There are mixed messages about where the war in Iran is heading. President Trump says a deal is close and that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, whilst Arab and European leaders believe it could take six months to reach a deal, hence yesterday’s Beige Book suggested companies were pursuing a wait and see strategy, holding off on major investments. Yet the Philly Fed manufacturing index overnight surged to 26.7 and initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 207,000. China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, despite weaker activity data for March, and there was an upward revision to Eurozone inflation. Again, mixed messages.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 16th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Sally Auld talks about how global markets appear to be "buying time" as investors increasingly price out the immediate threat of a wider Middle East conflict. Following news of an extended ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks, the S&P 500 hit a new record high, underpinned by a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing AI-driven tech momentum. While the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, there seems to be a shift back to domestic fundamentals in the US, including solid Q1 bank earnings. Locally, the focus is squarely on today's Australian Labour Force release, expected to show continued resilience with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 15th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

The hope of more peace talks between the US and Iran provided a temporary reprieve, sending the NASDAQ higher and Brent crude down toward $95 a barrel. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this and how the fragile situation is reflected in the latest NAB Business Survey, which saw a sharp fall in confidence and the IMF's updated global growth scenarios, which suggest the world economy is already tracking toward an "adverse" outcome due to sustained energy price volatility. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 14th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

While you'd expect chaos, NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that markets actually moved towards the end of the session on a positive note, spurred on by President Trump’s claims that Iranian officials are reaching out to talk peace—even if we should take that with a healthy pinch of salt. He talks to Phil about the "yo-yo" effect on the Aussie dollar, which touched 71 US cents as sentiment shifted, and the continued volatility in oil, with Brent and WTI both climbing despite staying under the $100 mark for now. They also dive into the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes and a sobering warning from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey regarding the growing threats to global financial stability from the Middle East conflict.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 13th April 2026

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 10th April 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.