NAB Morning Call

Friday 10th April 2026

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the fragile and one-sided nature of the proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which Rodrigo notes remains highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. The conversation explores the "phantom" nature of the peace deal, with Iran demanding the right to continue enriching uranium and proposing a toll for passage through the Strait—conditions that remain far from any common ground with the U.S.. Beyond the conflict, they break down a worrying divergence in the U.S. economy, where Core PCE inflation rose for a second consecutive month while real consumer spending declined. 

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Thursday 9th April 2026

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility.

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Wednesday 8th April 2026

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NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East as President Donald Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET deadline approaches. Trump has issued a dire warning on Truth Social that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Axios reported a "glimmer of progress" in negotiations over the last 24 hours, the situation remains critical following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and a petrochemical compound in Shiraz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets have remained relatively sanguine, though oil prices saw WTI rise over 1% to nearly $118 a barrel. The pair also review recent economic data, including strong discretionary spen din Australia in February, and the likely hold from the RBNZ today.

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Tuesday 7th April 2026

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Taylor Nugent joins Phil Dobbie to discuss the "ratcheting up" of geopolitical tensions as President Trump issues stark warnings and Iran threatens regional infrastructure while maintaining its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets showed surprising resilience over the Easter long weekend, though oil remains elevated with Brent hovering near $110 a barrel. They also dissect the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which surprised on the upside with 175k jobs added in March, even as the ISM Services index signalled underlying employment weakness and persistent price pressures. With a light data calendar ahead, the focus remains firmly on the Middle East and upcoming inflation prints from the U.S. and China.

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Thursday 2nd April 2026

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Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability.

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Thursday 2nd April 2026

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility.

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Wednesday 1st April 2026

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In today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.

Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data.

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Tuesday 31st March 2026

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As the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment. 

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Monday 30th March 2026

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As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment.

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Friday 27th March 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community.

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