NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 4th March 2026

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War escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East.

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Tuesday 3rd March 2026

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss the market turmoil following Operation Epic Fury, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring, with European gas prices surging more than 50% following a drone attack on Qatari production facilities. So, is this a short-term spike or a long-term inflationary threat? A massive "about-turn" in bond markets suggests a longer story, hence a shift in central bank rate-cut expectations. With President Trump facing low domestic approval for the move, the key question remains: will this conflict be resolved in weeks, or are we settling into a period of prolonged stagflation?

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Monday 2nd March 2026

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Today NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to examine the market reaction to the weekend’s dramatic military strikes on Tehran. With the Straits of Hormuz effectively stalled by soaring insurance costs and geopolitical uncertainty, we analyse the immediate pressure on oil and gold alongside. Beyond the Middle East there’s the brewing "mini-Lehman" moment in the UK as mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions collapses amid fraud allegations, leaving major players like Barclays exposed. From the PBOC’s strategic move to curb the Renminbi's rise to a massive week of data—including Australian Q4 GDP, the US Payrolls report, and China’s National People’s Congress—we provide the roadmap for a week where risk is suddenly everywhere.

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Friday 28th February 2026

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This week Phil dives into the massive infrastructure powering the global AI revolution with Luke Mackinnon, Senior Vice President of NextDC and Managing Director for Asia. As tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon pour billions into data centres, NextDC is rapidly expanding its footprint to provide the "shovels" for this digital gold rush, specifically engineering high-density "AI factories" like the KL1 facility in Kuala Lumpur and TK1 in Tokyo. Mackinnon breaks down the intense technical demands of supporting the latest GPU superclusters, the high-stakes race for power and land, and why specialized Tier 4 infrastructure is the non-negotiable backbone for the next wave of sovereign and enterprise AI.

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Friday 27th February 2026

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NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the curious response to NVIDIA’s 94% profit surge, which wasn’t enough to satisfy demanding investors, even though it beat expectations. The US continues to build up its military hardware in the Middle East as US-Iran talks in Geneva head nowhere, keeping oil prices on edge. Closer to home, they discuss the latest Aussie Capex data — highlighting a boom in data centres and renewable energy investment — while checking the speed of the economic recovery in New Zealand.

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Thursday 26th February 2026

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The Aussie dollar outshone most currencies again overnight. It’s now at multi-decade high against the Yen. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the influence of yesterday’s CPI numbers and weakening of the US dollar. There’s also a brief look at the State of the Union Address, why the Yen is weakening further, the push and pull of oil prices and what next for tariffs. Aside from Q4 capex for Australia, it’s a low news day ahead, unless NVIDIA lights the touchpaper on tech stocks.

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Wednesday 25th February 2026

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Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters about a fairly quiet session for data and market action. President Trump’s 10% tariffs has sent ripples through the UK and EU, whilst the Yen has felt pressure following reports of political concern over further rate hikes, as well as China’s strategic export ban on critical minerals to several Japanese firms. There was a rebound in US consumer confidence driven largely by Republican voters, a tech-led rally in US equities ahead of NVIDIA’s results (still a day away), and the "open question" of rate cuts at the Bank of England. They also look ahead to Australia's monthly CPI release today, Michelle Bullock’s upcoming address, and Donald Trump’s (no doubt lengthy) State of the Union address.

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Tuesday 24th February 2026

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NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect a classic "risk-off" shift in the global markets, marked by a retreat in US stocks and a pivot toward safe-haven assets. They explore the fallout from recent US Supreme Court rulings on trade policy, the persistent volatility surrounding the AI and software sectors, and shifting labor market expectations, highlighted in a speech nby Chris Waller overnight. Plus, the surprising resilience of the German business climate and the strengthening of the Chinese Renminbi as markets return from the Lunar New Year break.

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Monday 23rd February 2026

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Phil sits down with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to break down a chaotic weekend in US trade policy following the Supreme Court's ruling against previous tariff structures and the administration's subsequent pivot to a global 15% tariff. They discuss the ripple effects across global markets—including a surprisingly resilient Aussie dollar—while analysing a significant miss in US Q4 GDP and the implications of rising core PCE on future Fed easing. They also touch on the latest global PMI data, showing unexpected strength in the UK and Germany, and preview a busy week ahead featuring Australian CPI and insights from Fed officials on the economic impact of AI.

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Friday 21st February 2026

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

In this weekend’s podcast, Dr. Blair Chapman, Senior Economist at SEEK, previews the upcoming SEEK AI Gauge Report, highlighting that while overall job ad volumes have recently declined, demand for AI-specific skills is surging. Chapman notes a "broadening" of AI demand beyond the technical IT sector into fields like marketing and content creation, where approximately one in 20 ads now request AI proficiency. While the podcast addresses common fears of job displacement, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles, Chapman emphasizes that AI is currently augmenting rather than replacing most positions and creating new specialized roles such as AI ethics officers and AI content trainers. Ultimately, the discussion suggests that "AI fluency" is becoming a baseline requirement across the Australian workforce to drive productivity and navigate the evolving labour market.

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