Tuesday 12th August July 2025

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There’s been very little market movement despite some surprising news. First, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on exports from NVIDIA and AMD for AI chips headed to China. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a surprising move that a restriction supposedly on national security grounds has been foregone in exchange for a government revenue stream. Secondly, the 90-day truce on China’s tariffs, due to finish today, has been given another 90 days. And concerns continue about what will happen at the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday, President Zelensky says the Russian President is buying time and he is now amassing more troops on the border ready for a fresh onslaught. Today the focus will be on US inflation numbers and forecasts from the RBA after their expected rate cut today. 

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Monday 11th August July 2025

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This will be a very significant week and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it. For a start, we’ll be getting US inflation data tomorrow, to help answer the question around the impact of tariffs. One man who doesn’t believe it’s an issue is Stephen Miran, President Trump’s new man for the FOMC, but will he be in place to exert his influence at the next meeting? There’s also that meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska at the end of the week, but it seems highly unlikely it’ll lead to a lasting resolution, but it could see oil prices swayed by the geopolitical consequences. Locally there’s the RBA tomorrow and a slew of data. Get ready for an action packed week.

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Friday 8th August 2025

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Cath Carver is NAB’s Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking. She’s been in the role for a year but is close to clocking up ten years with the bank, with a long track record in finance and banking before that. Towards the end of this podcast Phil asks her if there’s anything she would have done differently if, years back she knew what she knows now. Her reply is, she’d have been bolder. ‘Not that we’ve been holding back,’ she says, ‘but we’ve got to be bold for our clients.’ Part of that comes from working with diverse teams and allowing people to be themselves at work. They also talk about the state of the global economy, Australia’s opportunity within it, and how to address Australia’s housing affordability issue. Something else that Cath says is looking for a bold solution.

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Friday8th August July 2025

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As of yesterday, US imports were hit with an average 15% tariff. Time will tell who is feeling the hurt the most, but on today’s podcast we hear about the impact on the auto industry, and German industrial production. China meanwhile saw exports rise again.

On today’s podcast, as well as talking tariffs, NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the very close call on cuts from the Bank of England, revisions to NAB’s FX forecast for the Aussie dollar, and what to expect from, China’s CPI out this weekend.

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Thursday 7th August July 2025

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US equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week. India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through these events, plus stronger thane expected Europpean data, and looks ahead to the Bank of England meeting, where a cut is expected. The question is, how much by?

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Wednesday 6th August July 2025

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The S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview overnight. He’s already warned India that they face substantial extra tariffs over their purchases of Russian oil, now he is warning of tariffs on microchips and pharmaceuticals  (ultimately rising to 250%!), kicking off within the next week.  

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Tuesday 5th August July 2025

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Has Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil.

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Monday 4th August July 2025

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There were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day!

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Friday 2nd August 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

NZ Super Fund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?

Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for payouts, so they have the luxury of a longer-term view. He also says their Total Portfolio Approach is part of their success and explains to Phil how that works.

But does success in the past guarantee success in the future? How is Brad and the team at NZ Super Fund navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s America, the promises of new technologies and the role of Europe in the world order? And how important is New Zealand itself to their investment mix?

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Friday 1st August July 2025

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Yesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The other big news today is non-farm payrolls tonight, and in earnings Amazon beat revenue forecasts put posted a weaker outlook for Q3, whilst Apple gave a healthier set of figures.

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