NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 28th January 2026

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The dollar has weakened again, lifting the Aussie and most majors, while oil, equities and spot gold all pushed higher in a broadly risk‑positive session. Bond moves are mild but yields are edging up across several markets, and silver is having a wild swing lower. Taylor Nugent joins us as the NAB Business Survey shows a rebound in conditions and confidence, capacity utilisation easing only slightly, and Q4 CPI likely to come in above the RBA’s forecast — all reinforcing the chance of a February rate hike. With the Fed tonight, a hawkish tone could unsettle markets given sticky inflation, softer jobs data and a sharp drop in US consumer confidence, alongside rising political tension and the risk of a partial government shutdown. We also have the Bank of Canada, NZ filled‑jobs data and a huge slate of tech earnings still to come.

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Tuesday 27th January 2026

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The US dollar is on the back foot, falling to its lowest level in four months, the Yen is clawing back territory, precious metals are surging to fresh highs, and the Aussie is the strongest it’s been in years — all setting the stage for a busy week ahead. Attention now turns to whether talk of coordinated action between Japan and the New York Fed signals more of a push for a weaker Dollar and stronger Yen — even as the BoJ remains reluctant to signal rate hikes. Gavin Friend joins us to unpack the latest market moves, the influence of stronger US data and the political uncertainty from Washington, including the real possibility of a US government shutdown this week. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey lands today, ahead of tomorrow’s Q4 CPI, with US consumer confidence also on the slate

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Friday 23rd January 2026

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Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal, argues that Donald Trump’s flurry of geopolitical moves — from abducting Nicolás Maduro to threatening Iran and making claims on Greenland — is best read as strategic signalling aimed at China rather than random headline chasing. By disrupting Venezuelan and potentially Iranian oil flows, Washington is reminding Beijing how exposed it is to imported energy, while the sudden fixation on Greenland reflects US fears of China and Russia expanding into an increasingly accessible Arctic. Layered on top is a deep contradiction in Trump’s promise of “energy dominance”: US drillers need high prices to invest, while Trump promises voters cheap fuel. Markets, meanwhile, have largely tuned out of the geopolitical noise. The result, Tom says, is a mix of genuine strategic messaging and Trump’s trademark “flood the zone” chaos — a pattern that will shape, and probably destabilise, the months ahead.

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Friday 23rd January 2026

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Markets faced a whiplash day of geopolitics and data, as President Trump’s abrupt Greenland U‑turn steadies equity markets even while uncertainty keeps gold surging. Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters unpack a stronger Aussie dollar, rising local bond yields, and the surprisingly sharp drop in Australia’s unemployment rate that has markets leaning even further toward a February RBA hike. They sweep through firmer US spending and GDP revisions, falling jobless claims, softer NZ retail numbers, and a big day of global PMIs, CPI prints, and the Bank of Japan’s delicate dance with a weakening yen.

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Thursday 22nd January 2026

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President Trump used his Davos address to insist there is “no going back” on his push to acquire Greenland, ruling out military action but signalling that more tariffs on Europe look inevitable — a stance that has kept gold at fresh highs even as broader markets remain relatively calm. Currencies and bonds were quiet overnight, with the Aussie dollar firmer and JGB yields retracing, while US equities stabilised after yesterday’s sharp fall. Oil is little changed, but the IEA warns that rising surplus stocks will keep prices capped despite stronger non‑OECD demand this year. Hopes of a Ukraine breakthrough faded with President Zelensky absent from Davos, and the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical over the case to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, hinting the central bank may not be as heavily reshaped as expected. US pending home sales slumped in December, UK inflation was mixed, and attention now turns to today’s Australian employment data and US releases including core PCE, income and spending.

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Wednesday 21st January 2026

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Markets are on edge this morning as the Greenland fallout continues to reverberate through currencies, bonds, metals and equities, with fears that US–European trade and intelligence ties may suffer lasting damage. Tensions escalated as the President revealed a private text exchange with President Macron and threatened 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. Meanwhile, Japan has endured a sharp bond sell off —its “Liz Truss moment” — after concerns that Sanae Takaichi’s proposed tax cuts are unfunded. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through a session that has seen commodity prices are surging, equities weaker and bond yields are higher across major markets.

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Tuesday 20th January 2026

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President Trump’s renewed push on Greenland and fresh tariff threats against Europe have markets bracing for possible retaliation, with EU leaders signalling they may hold firm rather than concede — even hinting at using their anti‑coercion powers, despite German hesitation. Precious metals are surging as investors hedge the “Greenland crisis”, while currencies and bonds move only modestly in a session thinned by the US holiday. European equities are weaker, China’s latest data remain soft, and Canada’s inflation mix adds to global CPI nerves ahead of the US print. With Davos only just underway — and memories of last year’s sharply anti‑EU Trump video address still fresh — the next 24 hours will determine whether this escalates into a trade war or proves to be little more than a storm in a teacup. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it all.

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Monday 19th January 2026

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Markets open the week a little snowblind, with investors unsure how to process President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of tariffs on European countries that oppose the idea. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to sift through the market reaction, alongside shifting expectations for the next Fed chair — with Kevin Hassett fading and Kevin Warsh now the frontrunner — plus a firmer US dollar, softer Aussie, weaker equities, rising bond yields and a yen that’s clawing back amid talk of possible intervention. China’s GDP and industrial production are due, so it Canada’s CPI, with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day and the World Economic Forum kicking off in Davos.

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Friday 16th January 2026

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Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability.

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Friday 16th January 2026

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The mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began.

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