NAB Morning Call

Monday 9th February 2026

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A huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2%, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained.

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Friday 6th February 2026

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This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like.

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Friday 6th February 2026

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US markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day.

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Thursday 5th February 2026

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Tech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength.

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Wednesday 4th February 2026

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The RBA’s widely expected rate hike to 3.85% stole the show, but it was the sharper tone in the Statement on Monetary Policy and Michelle Bullock’s press conference that really moved markets, with the Bank now warning of broader‑based inflation pressures and pushing its return‑to‑target timeline all the way out to mid‑2028. The Aussie dollar surged past 70 US cents as equities softened and bond yields climbed. Meanwhile gold has bounced back a little, the US dollar slipped, the Fed’s loan officer survey showed mixed credit demand, Europe awaits fresh CPI, China’s services PMI is due, and with Washington still in partial shutdown the ADP report is the only US jobs data we’ll see this week, apart from what we can glean from the US services ISM out later. Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through it all.

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Tuesday 3rd February 2026

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With markets all but certain the RBA will lift rates today, attention turns to the Bank’s updated forecasts. Meanwhile traders navigate a week without US jobs data thanks to Washington’s partial shutdown. A stronger US dollar, buoyant equities and rising bond yields set the backdrop, alongside a hawkish market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and a punchy US ISM showing growth in orders and production but weaker employment. Oil has slumped, gold has tumbled, China’s private‑sector PMI has surprised on the upside, and the US–India tariff shift barely moved the dial. 

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Monday 2nd February 2026

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Today’s episode digs into the market whiplash triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a move that nudged the US dollar higher, knocked the Aussie lower, and sent precious metals into a full‑blown plunge, even as equities and bonds delivered a more mixed, almost reluctant response. We unpack whether the gold and silver surge was really about Fed independence, revisit Warsh’s crisis‑era credentials and his scepticism of QE, and explore what his arrival means for balance‑sheet policy, rate‑cut expectations, and the future of Stephen Miran. Alongside that, we scan a messy global backdrop: China’s PMIs slipping below 50, Europe surprising with stronger GDP, US manufacturing beating forecasts, Japan’s inflation still too sticky for the BoJ’s comfort, and Washington wrestling with a partial government shutdown. Plus, a look ahead to a packed central‑bank week — RBA, BoE, ECB — and a Middle East update that has US officials signalling caution despite the President’s military build‑up.

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Friday 23rd January 2026

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Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.

Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year.

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Friday 30th January 2026

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Microsoft was hammered overnight on fears it’s pushing too hard, too fast on AI investment, a sharp contrast to Meta, which is spending heavily too but can point to AI‑driven ad revenue as proof it’s paying off; add in rising speculation that Washington is preparing to strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal materialises, a tension clearly visible in a 3% jump in oil, while iron ore is climbing on China’s effective scrapping of its property‑sector borrowing limits. NAB’s Rodrigo Catriul joins Phil to talk through all this and more, with a lot of data due today, including Australian private‑sector credit.

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Thursday 29th January 2026

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The Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hike next week, yet yields slipped. Geopolitics simmered, with US naval deployments raising questions about Iran and adding fuel to the gold rally. Currency chatter centred on yen intervention rumours — quashed by Scott Bessent — while the Bank of Canada held steady amid US trade uncertainty. And with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell, markets braced for another test of the AI‑driven tech narrative.

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