NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 13th March 2019

The UK Prime Minister has suffered another defeat (242 v 391), with her Brexit deal failing to pass through parliament. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s David de Garis about the consequences – a delay seems inevitable, but for how long? Boeings share price has driven the Dow down, whilst lower than expected inflation will have had a bit to do with bond prices today. And, bad news yesterday in the NAB Business Survey, yet the Aussie dollar holding itself up a little this morning.

Tuesday 12th March 2019

US stocks rose sharply in the overnight session following the release of US retail numbers, which showed a bounce back in January. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, the markets chose to ignore that there was also a sizeable downward revision to December’s numbers. The pound showed strong growth on news that Theresa May was popping over to Strasbourg for last minute talks, ahead of the vote on her deal tonight. But, before you get too carried away, hear what the Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel had to say about the next two years. Plus, the NAB Business Survey is out today – will it provide further recovery after December’s big fall in business conditions?

Tuesday 12th March 2019

US stocks rose sharply in the overnight session following the release of US retail numbers, which showed a bounce back in January. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, the markets chose to ignore that there was also a sizeable downward revision to December’s numbers. The pound showed strong growth on news that Theresa May was popping over to Strasbourg for last minute talks, ahead of the vote on her deal tonight. But, before you get too carried away, hear what the Bank of England’s Jonathan Haskel had to say about the next two years. Plus, the NAB Business Survey is out today – will it provide further recovery after December’s big fall in business conditions?

Monday 11th March 2019

NAB expects the RBA to cut interest rates twice this year. On this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests there could be more to follow, but it obviously depends on the data. Meanwhile, no sooner has President Trump tweeted that more Americans are employed than ever before (of course, there are also more American than ever before) Jerome Powell hits primetime TV in America this morning to talk about the Fed’s approach to the slowing US economy. There was less encouraging news from Germany, but China’s slide in exports should be treated with some caution, suggests Ray. And get ready for a big week on Brexit.

Monday 11th March 2019

NAB expects the RBA to cut interest rates twice this year. On this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests there could be more to follow, but it obviously depends on the data. Meanwhile, no sooner has President Trump tweeted that more Americans are employed than ever before (of course, there are also more American than ever before) Jerome Powell hits primetime TV in America this morning to talk about the Fed’s approach to the slowing US economy. There was less encouraging news from Germany, but China’s slide in exports should be treated with some caution, suggests Ray. And get ready for a big week on Brexit.

Monday 11th March 2019

NAB expects the RBA to cut interest rates twice this year. On this morning’s podcast NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests there could be more to follow, but it obviously depends on the data. Meanwhile, no sooner has President Trump tweeted that more Americans are employed than ever before (of course, there are also more American than ever before) Jerome Powell hits primetime TV in America this morning to talk about the Fed’s approach to the slowing US economy. There was less encouraging news from Germany, but China’s slide in exports should be treated with some caution, suggests Ray. And get ready for a big week on Brexit.

Friday 8th March 2019

Markets have reacted swiftly to the latest ECB meeting which has seen a significant downward move in inflation and growth forecasts, and an announcement that they will launch a third trench of cheap bank loans. NAB’s David de Garis tells Phil Dobbie that the central bank is clearly worried about the domestic European economy, even if Mario Draghi is blaming the downturn on external factors. Across the English Channel Theresa May’s hopes of a new deal seem to be dashed, while across the Atlantic Lael Brainard sounds like she’s discounted at least one rate rise from the Fed. Even a surprise increase on non-farm hourly wages tonight is unlikely to spur the Fed into action anytime soon.

Friday 8th March 2019

Markets have reacted swiftly to the latest ECB meeting which has seen a significant downward move in inflation and growth forecasts, and an announcement that they will launch a third trench of cheap bank loans. NAB’s David de Garis tells Phil Dobbie that the central bank is clearly worried about the domestic European economy, even if Mario Draghi is blaming the downturn on external factors. Across the English Channel Theresa May’s hopes of a new deal seem to be dashed, while across the Atlantic Lael Brainard sounds like she’s discounted at least one rate rise from the Fed. Even a surprise increase on non-farm hourly wages tonight is unlikely to spur the Fed into action anytime soon.

Thursday 7th March 2019

Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday surprised many, falling well below NAB’s expectations, which themselves were below market consensus. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gaivn Friend what this means for the RBA who, yesterday, Ray Attrill described as wearing rose tinted glasses. Has reality started to bite? There’s also discussion on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and how the ECB will weather the downturn in Europe. Plus, disappointing data from the US, but perhaps more important where the words from the Fed’s John Williams – listen in to find out what he had to say.

Thursday 7th March 2019

Australia’s GDP numbers yesterday surprised many, falling well below NAB’s expectations, which themselves were below market consensus. On today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gaivn Friend what this means for the RBA who, yesterday, Ray Attrill described as wearing rose tinted glasses. Has reality started to bite? There’s also discussion on the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and how the ECB will weather the downturn in Europe. Plus, disappointing data from the US, but perhaps more important where the words from the Fed’s John Williams – listen in to find out what he had to say.