NAB Morning Call

Monday 25th March 2019

The yield curve for 3 month and 10 year US treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007. The markets seem a little spooked, with big falls in equities in the US on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this does mean a US recession is imminent or is it “different this time”? They also look at the latest Brexit confusion. With the EU granting a two week stay of execution there’s some question as to whether the Tory government will use that time to replace their leader – perhaps not the most constructive step when time is short. Plus the latest evidence that the downturn in Germany might not be as short lived as had been hoped.

Monday 25th March 2019

The yield curve for 3 month and 10 year US treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007. The markets seem a little spooked, with big falls in equities in the US on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this does mean a US recession is imminent or is it “different this time”? They also look at the latest Brexit confusion. With the EU granting a two week stay of execution there’s some question as to whether the Tory government will use that time to replace their leader – perhaps not the most constructive step when time is short. Plus the latest evidence that the downturn in Germany might not be as short lived as had been hoped.

Friday 22nd March 2019

EU leaders met to discuss the possibility of an extension to the UK’s article 50. It’s conditional on Westminster accepting the Withdrawal Agreement that has twice been voted down. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend her address to the nation on Wednesday night might have lessened the hope of a success third time round. So what now? Plus, the marked reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts, looking beyond the headlines at yesterday’s Australian Labour Force data, and flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

Friday 22nd March 2019

EU leaders met to discuss the possibility of an extension to the UK’s article 50. It’s conditional on Westminster accepting the Withdrawal Agreement that has twice been voted down. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend her address to the nation on Wednesday night might have lessened the hope of a success third time round. So what now? Plus, the marked reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts, looking beyond the headlines at yesterday’s Australian Labour Force data, and flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

Friday 22nd March 2019

EU leaders met to discuss the possibility of an extension to the UK’s article 50. It’s conditional on Westminster accepting the Withdrawal Agreement that has twice been voted down. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Gavin Friend her address to the nation on Wednesday night might have lessened the hope of a success third time round. So what now? Plus, the marked reaction to yesterday’s Fed forecasts, looking beyond the headlines at yesterday’s Australian Labour Force data, and flash PMIs for the Eurozone.

Thursday 21st March 2019

The US Fed has revised its growth forecasts for this year and next, and removed all dot points for rate moves this year. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the news, which was more dovish than many had expected. There’s been a positive response on the equity markets. Meanwhile, ahead of next week’s China trade deal President Trump has suggested tariffs will remain in place for a substantial period of time. There’s no time for Theresa May’s government, though, with the EU indicating an extension will only be provided if the UK parliament votes in favour of the withdrawal agreement. Unless, of course, they change their mind at the last moment. There’s also discussion about today’s Australian employment data, which the RBA has highlighted as a key factor when determining future rate moves.

Thursday 21st March 2019

The US Fed has revised its growth forecasts for this year and next, and removed all dot points for rate moves this year. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the news, which was more dovish than many had expected. There’s been a positive response on the equity markets. Meanwhile, ahead of next week’s China trade deal President Trump has suggested tariffs will remain in place for a substantial period of time. There’s no time for Theresa May’s government, though, with the EU indicating an extension will only be provided if the UK parliament votes in favour of the withdrawal agreement. Unless, of course, they change their mind at the last moment. There’s also discussion about today’s Australian employment data, which the RBA has highlighted as a key factor when determining future rate moves.

Wednesday 20th march 2019

Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US. NAB’s Rodriog Catril suggest to Phil Dobbie that it’s just part of the negotiating process. The same could apply to the EU, with Michel Barnier saying the UK needs to provide a good reason for an Article 50 extension, and whether it should be a short one or a long one – it’s all part of the brinkmanship. There’s also discussion about Australian house prices, the RBA minutes yesterday, the UK’s record unemployment and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Wednesday 20th march 2019

Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US. NAB’s Rodriog Catril suggest to Phil Dobbie that it’s just part of the negotiating process. The same could apply to the EU, with Michel Barnier saying the UK needs to provide a good reason for an Article 50 extension, and whether it should be a short one or a long one – it’s all part of the brinkmanship. There’s also discussion about Australian house prices, the RBA minutes yesterday, the UK’s record unemployment and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.

Wednesday 20th march 2019

Media reports suggest China is playing hard ball in negotiations with the US. NAB’s Rodriog Catril suggest to Phil Dobbie that it’s just part of the negotiating process. The same could apply to the EU, with Michel Barnier saying the UK needs to provide a good reason for an Article 50 extension, and whether it should be a short one or a long one – it’s all part of the brinkmanship. There’s also discussion about Australian house prices, the RBA minutes yesterday, the UK’s record unemployment and tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.