NAB Morning Call

Friday 29th March 2019

The UK Prime Minister will table her Withdrawal Agreement again tonight. Its acceptance, or otherwise, will determine the date of Brexit – which was to have been today. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland on what happens next. They also discuss possible delays in US China trade talks and its impact on the global economy. Plus the slowdown in New Zealand and what to expect from US inflation figures tonight.

Thursday 28th March 2019

A risk off mood overnight saw moves to US Treasuries, with big falls in yields and falls in shares. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what’s driven sentiment overnight. They also discuss UK PM Theresa May’s promise to step aside if her Brexit deal is passed by parliament. And a more dovish than expected RBNZ drove the NZ dollar down, but what else has been hitting the Aussie dollar in this session? Plus, why its worth keeping an eye on job vacancy numbers this morning.

Thursday 28th March 2019

A risk off mood overnight saw moves to US Treasuries, with big falls in yields and falls in shares. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland what’s driven sentiment overnight. They also discuss UK PM Theresa May’s promise to step aside if her Brexit deal is passed by parliament. And a more dovish than expected RBNZ drove the NZ dollar down, but what else has been hitting the Aussie dollar in this session? Plus, why its worth keeping an eye on job vacancy numbers this morning.

Wednesday 27th March 2019

The US stock market has rebounded in this session, which has also helped the Aussie dollar this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the sudden change in sentiment, particularly when the data from the US overnight wasn’t particularly strong. They also discuss the latest o Brexit, with MPs voting against the PM on a series of indicative votes. Although they are unlikely to provide a definitive way forward, the pound is up today. And the RBNZ announces its cash rate decision today – what will they say about the latest GDP reading, which undershot all expectations?

Wednesday 27th March 2019

The US stock market has rebounded in this session, which has also helped the Aussie dollar this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the sudden change in sentiment, particularly when the data from the US overnight wasn’t particularly strong. They also discuss the latest o Brexit, with MPs voting against the PM on a series of indicative votes. Although they are unlikely to provide a definitive way forward, the pound is up today. And the RBNZ announces its cash rate decision today – what will they say about the latest GDP reading, which undershot all expectations?

Wednesday 27th March 2019

The US stock market has rebounded in this session, which has also helped the Aussie dollar this morning. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why the sudden change in sentiment, particularly when the data from the US overnight wasn’t particularly strong. They also discuss the latest o Brexit, with MPs voting against the PM on a series of indicative votes. Although they are unlikely to provide a definitive way forward, the pound is up today. And the RBNZ announces its cash rate decision today – what will they say about the latest GDP reading, which undershot all expectations?

Tuesday 26th March 2019

The pound has suffered most of the major currencies as UK politicians seem to be arguing how to go forward on Brexit. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether markets are gearing up for the potential of a no-deal Brexit on April 12th? Meanwhile, there are glimmers of hope in the European economy and the possibility of rate rises in the US this year, even though the Fed has indicated otherwise. And what to expect from NZ trade figures this morning.

Tuesday 26th March 2019

The pound has suffered most of the major currencies as UK politicians seem to be arguing how to go forward on Brexit. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether markets are gearing up for the potential of a no-deal Brexit on April 12th? Meanwhile, there are glimmers of hope in the European economy and the possibility of rate rises in the US this year, even though the Fed has indicated otherwise. And what to expect from NZ trade figures this morning.

Tuesday 26th March 2019

The pound has suffered most of the major currencies as UK politicians seem to be arguing how to go forward on Brexit. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether markets are gearing up for the potential of a no-deal Brexit on April 12th? Meanwhile, there are glimmers of hope in the European economy and the possibility of rate rises in the US this year, even though the Fed has indicated otherwise. And what to expect from NZ trade figures this morning.

Monday 25th March 2019

The yield curve for 3 month and 10 year US treasuries inverted for the first time since 2007. The markets seem a little spooked, with big falls in equities in the US on Friday. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether this does mean a US recession is imminent or is it “different this time”? They also look at the latest Brexit confusion. With the EU granting a two week stay of execution there’s some question as to whether the Tory government will use that time to replace their leader – perhaps not the most constructive step when time is short. Plus the latest evidence that the downturn in Germany might not be as short lived as had been hoped.