NAB Morning Call

Bad news for those looking for a quiet week before Christmas. US shares were pummelled on Friday as fears of a global slowdown widen. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie, this uncertainty wasn’t helped by weak data from Europe and China. So, what about the narrowing spreads in the Treasury yield curve? And will Trump’s threatened government shutdown make matters worse? The risk-off mood hit the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, is there anything that can help a recovery early this week. Could MYEFO help?

Friday 14th November 2018

The European Central Bank announced that it is ending quantitative easing, as planned. It followed with a dovish appraisal from Mario Draghi, but as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, his fear of growing downside risks didn’t do too much damage to the Euro. Otherwise, it’s been a fairly quiet 24 hours, with little to report on China v the US and the UK v the EU. Instead, its time to look ahead – with a swag of data from China and Japan today, and US retail sales tonight.

Friday 14th November 2018

The European Central Bank announced that it is ending quantitative easing, as planned. It followed with a dovish appraisal from Mario Draghi, but as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, his fear of growing downside risks didn’t do too much damage to the Euro. Otherwise, it’s been a fairly quiet 24 hours, with little to report on China v the US and the UK v the EU. Instead, its time to look ahead – with a swag of data from China and Japan today, and US retail sales tonight.

Thursday 13th December 2018

UK politics becomes even more incomprehensible as Theresa May faces a confidence vote from her own party. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London talks through the impact of the vote on the Brexit process – for now, it’s buoyed the pound a little, but it’s all relative. Meanwhile US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies. And today the ECB meets, with an expected end to asset purchasing. Gavin also talks through NAB’s revised position on interest rate moves for Australia next year.

Thursday 13th December 2018

UK politics becomes even more incomprehensible as Theresa May faces a confidence vote from her own party. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London talks through the impact of the vote on the Brexit process – for now, it’s buoyed the pound a little, but it’s all relative. Meanwhile US equities have had a shot in the arm following a Wall Street Journal report that China might open up access to their domestic markets for foreign companies. And today the ECB meets, with an expected end to asset purchasing. Gavin also talks through NAB’s revised position on interest rate moves for Australia next year.

Wednesday 12th December 2018

Markets have been pulled in each direction in the last 24 hours. First, a positive reaction to reports that China might be about to drop the tariffs on US car imports. Then, reversed by threats from President Trump about a possible government shutdown if he doesn’t get the required funding to build the wall. But, as Phil Dobbie, suggests to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, haven’t we been here before. Plus, Theresa May’s mission impossible in Europe, Australia’s consumer confidence, tonight’s US CPI and the trade deal the UK could have had, if they’d decided to stay in Europe.

Wednesday 12th December 2018

Markets have been pulled in each direction in the last 24 hours. First, a positive reaction to reports that China might be about to drop the tariffs on US car imports. Then, reversed by threats from President Trump about a possible government shutdown if he doesn’t get the required funding to build the wall. But, as Phil Dobbie, suggests to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, haven’t we been here before. Plus, Theresa May’s mission impossible in Europe, Australia’s consumer confidence, tonight’s US CPI and the trade deal the UK could have had, if they’d decided to stay in Europe.

The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions. Phil Dobbie talks to Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist – Markets, about what’s driving the trend. In fact, this time the survey specifically asked why business conditions are slowing, and whether falling house prices were having an impact on business.

The latest NAB business survey shows further weakness in business conditions. Phil Dobbie talks to Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist – Markets, about what’s driving the trend. In fact, this time the survey specifically asked why business conditions are slowing, and whether falling house prices were having an impact on business.

Tuesday 11th December 2018

The UK PM Theresa May has delayed the parliamentary vote on her Brexit deal, hoping the EU will negotiate on the open-ended nature of the backstop arrangement. But is it rearranging the deckchairs on a doomed deal? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London, where the pound has taken a hit on the increased uncertainty on where Brexit is heading. They also look at the swift turnaround in oil – with OPEC cuts agreed, why are prices sliding again? Plus, more on the plight of the Aussie dollar which, like the ASX, has had a tough 24 hours.