NAB Morning Call

Friday 21st December 2018

US stocks have fallen markedly since the Fed meeting yesterday, with the dollar also taking a hit and the yield curve flattening a little. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis why there’s been such a sharp reaction – did they really do anything that wasn’t expected? And how come the Riksbank can lift rates only to see their currency rally? They also discuss the impact of a US government shutdown, the response to yesterday’s weak employment numbers in Australia and a healthy dose of US data tonight, including the PCE deflator.

Friday 21st December 2018

US stocks have fallen markedly since the Fed meeting yesterday, with the dollar also taking a hit and the yield curve flattening a little. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis why there’s been such a sharp reaction – did they really do anything that wasn’t expected? And how come the Riksbank can lift rates only to see their currency rally? They also discuss the impact of a US government shutdown, the response to yesterday’s weak employment numbers in Australia and a healthy dose of US data tonight, including the PCE deflator.

Thursday 20th December 2018

The Federal Reserve in the US has lifted interest rates, as anticipated. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the message from the bank sets the right tone, given sensitivities in the markets right now. A subsequent fall in equities suggests investors were expecting a slightly more dovish tone. The job is easier for the Bank of England, with nobody expecting too much from their meeting today. There’s also discussion on the rise in oil prices, the fall in Italian bond yields and there’s some meaty data today, including UK retail sales, NZ GDP numbers and Australian employment numbers.

Thursday 20th December 2018

The Federal Reserve in the US has lifted interest rates, as anticipated. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the message from the bank sets the right tone, given sensitivities in the markets right now. A subsequent fall in equities suggests investors were expecting a slightly more dovish tone. The job is easier for the Bank of England, with nobody expecting too much from their meeting today. There’s also discussion on the rise in oil prices, the fall in Italian bond yields and there’s some meaty data today, including UK retail sales, NZ GDP numbers and Australian employment numbers.

Thursday 20th December 2018

The Federal Reserve in the US has lifted interest rates, as anticipated. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the message from the bank sets the right tone, given sensitivities in the markets right now. A subsequent fall in equities suggests investors were expecting a slightly more dovish tone. The job is easier for the Bank of England, with nobody expecting too much from their meeting today. There’s also discussion on the rise in oil prices, the fall in Italian bond yields and there’s some meaty data today, including UK retail sales, NZ GDP numbers and Australian employment numbers.

Wednesday 19th December 2018

Oil fell even further overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the contained response to the fall. They also discuss the impact of President Xi’s defiant 80 minute speech in Beijing, which seemed to challenge the US attempts to change their industrial policy. Plus, further evidence of weakness in Europe and Theresa May’s cabinet steps up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, before going on holiday.

Wednesday 19th December 2018

Oil fell even further overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the contained response to the fall. They also discuss the impact of President Xi’s defiant 80 minute speech in Beijing, which seemed to challenge the US attempts to change their industrial policy. Plus, further evidence of weakness in Europe and Theresa May’s cabinet steps up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, before going on holiday.

Tuesday 18th December 2018

It’s a sea of red today, and not a jovial Santa Claus red. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil Dobbie, equities, oil and bond yields are all down. The only positive news is that the Italian government might kowtow to Brussel’s demands – or succumb to the cost of borrowing. Meanwhile, Brexit takes another turn as Jeremy Corbyn tables a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Where is that Christmas spirit?

Tuesday 18th December 2018

It’s a sea of red today, and not a jovial Santa Claus red. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discusses with Phil Dobbie, equities, oil and bond yields are all down. The only positive news is that the Italian government might kowtow to Brussel’s demands – or succumb to the cost of borrowing. Meanwhile, Brexit takes another turn as Jeremy Corbyn tables a motion of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Where is that Christmas spirit?

Bad news for those looking for a quiet week before Christmas. US shares were pummelled on Friday as fears of a global slowdown widen. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie, this uncertainty wasn’t helped by weak data from Europe and China. So, what about the narrowing spreads in the Treasury yield curve? And will Trump’s threatened government shutdown make matters worse? The risk-off mood hit the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, is there anything that can help a recovery early this week. Could MYEFO help?