NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 28th November 2018

President Trump has threatened China again, suggesting the prospect of tariffs at the year end is real. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Gavin Friend how this played on the markets overnight. They also discuss the dovish tone set by the Fed’s Richard Clarida, who suggests that they are close to the neutral rate. And closer to home, Kiwi dollar is up – despite a widening trade deficit.

Tuesday 27th November 2018

There was a spark of confidence in the markets overnight, as equities rose in the US, along with a bounce back in oil and a rise in Treasury yields. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, none of this was offset by the news that GM would close seven factories in North America with thousands of job losses. Phil Dobbie asks, is it part of an industry restructure or a sign the economy is closing. There were hopes that the Italian government will toe the line on their budget but, after hours answering questions from MPs, it’s looking highly unlikely Theresa May will get her Brexit deal passed next month.

Tuesday 27th November 2018

There was a spark of confidence in the markets overnight, as equities rose in the US, along with a bounce back in oil and a rise in Treasury yields. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, none of this was offset by the news that GM would close seven factories in North America with thousands of job losses. Phil Dobbie asks, is it part of an industry restructure or a sign the economy is closing. There were hopes that the Italian government will toe the line on their budget but, after hours answering questions from MPs, it’s looking highly unlikely Theresa May will get her Brexit deal passed next month.

Monday 26th November 2018

Thanksgiving week finished with a rapidly falling oil price and questions over the strength of growth in the US economy, seeing falls in equities. Phil Dobbie asks BAB’s Rodrigo Catril about what’s driving this uncertainty when, on the other hand, Black Friday sales are expected to break all records. They also discuss how one minor Brexit hurdle was passed and why it’s increasingly looking irrelevant. Plus, why the Aussie dollar took a shellacking last week and further signs of weakness in Europe.

Monday 26th November 2018

Thanksgiving week finished with a rapidly falling oil price and questions over the strength of growth in the US economy, seeing falls in equities. Phil Dobbie asks BAB’s Rodrigo Catril about what’s driving this uncertainty when, on the other hand, Black Friday sales are expected to break all records. They also discuss how one minor Brexit hurdle was passed and why it’s increasingly looking irrelevant. Plus, why the Aussie dollar took a shellacking last week and further signs of weakness in Europe.

Friday 23rd November 2018

Theresa May and European negotiators have agreed an outline of what the relationship will be after the UK finally leaves the EU. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, it helped the pound today but there are many hurdles to be overcome. Meanwhile, there’s hope that China US trade tensions might be easing, helped by not having Peter Navarro at the G20 dinner when Trump and Xi talk Turkey. Speaking of which, it was a quiet session with the US on holiday for Thanksgiving.

Friday 23rd November 2018

Theresa May and European negotiators have agreed an outline of what the relationship will be after the UK finally leaves the EU. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis, it helped the pound today but there are many hurdles to be overcome. Meanwhile, there’s hope that China US trade tensions might be easing, helped by not having Peter Navarro at the G20 dinner when Trump and Xi talk Turkey. Speaking of which, it was a quiet session with the US on holiday for Thanksgiving.

Thursday 22nd November 2018

Oil pricing doesn’t seem to be making a lot of sense lately, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. This morning prices have bounced back up, even though the news is largely about increasing supply, including the prospect of massive new reserves in Texas. Equities have also bounced back, despite less than impressive economic data – US job claims are worse than expected, durable goods orders are well down. Plus, more angst between the US and China – is a tariff on all trade looking even more likely?

Thursday 22nd November 2018

Oil pricing doesn’t seem to be making a lot of sense lately, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril. This morning prices have bounced back up, even though the news is largely about increasing supply, including the prospect of massive new reserves in Texas. Equities have also bounced back, despite less than impressive economic data – US job claims are worse than expected, durable goods orders are well down. Plus, more angst between the US and China – is a tariff on all trade looking even more likely?

Wednesday 21st November 2018

Oil prices and US equities are back close to where they were at the start of the year when there was so much promise from the President’s expensive stimulus measures. So why, if there are concerns over a weakening US and global economy, is the US dollar on the rise today? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Gavin Friend in today’s Morning Call podcast. Could we see the US dollar weaken and the Aussie gain some strength? After all, we’re one part of the world that seems a step away from the problems facing many other economies. Yet, even with Philip Lowe talking things up last night, the Aussie dollar lost ground overnight.