NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 14th November 2018

The EU and UK have agreed a draft 500 page Withdrawal Agreement. It’s the first Nrexit milestone, but will it stick. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about what could be a volatile 24 hours or so for Sterling. They also look at how the Trump factor has influenced oil prices, the Italian budget, and the latest vibes on Chinese trade talks. Plus, what to expect from US CPI numbers tonight, and Aussie wage data today.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks to Phil Dobbie about the findings in this morning’s NAB Business Survey. They discuss business conditions, confidence and wages data, and trends for specific sectors and Australian states.

Ivan Colhoun, NAB’s Chief Economist, Markets, talks to Phil Dobbie about the findings in this morning’s NAB Business Survey. They discuss business conditions, confidence and wages data, and trends for specific sectors and Australian states.

Tuesday 13th November 2018

There’s an expectation that a Brexit deal will be presented to the May cabinet today (tonight Australia time), but the PM’s office has said that should be taken with a bucket of salt. In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland, based in London, how low the pound could sink given the rising uncertainty, with just 137 days until Britain leaves the EU. They also discuss Europe’s other problem child – with Italy re-presenting its budget and differences still looming. Tech stocks in the US have been hit by reports that the Trump administration is set to extend its trade battle with China beyond tariffs, to counter the theft of intellectual property.

Note, there will be another podcast this morning at 11.30 AEDT to cover the latest release of the monthly NAB Business Survey.

Tuesday 13th November 2018

There’s an expectation that a Brexit deal will be presented to the May cabinet today (tonight Australia time), but the PM’s office has said that should be taken with a bucket of salt. In today’s podcast Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland, based in London, how low the pound could sink given the rising uncertainty, with just 137 days until Britain leaves the EU. They also discuss Europe’s other problem child – with Italy re-presenting its budget and differences still looming. Tech stocks in the US have been hit by reports that the Trump administration is set to extend its trade battle with China beyond tariffs, to counter the theft of intellectual property.

Note, there will be another podcast this morning at 11.30 AEDT to cover the latest release of the monthly NAB Business Survey.

Monday 12th November 2018

Could hope of a Brexit deal be about to come to an end? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the latest resignation letter to land on Theresa May’s desk, claiming Brexit approach is offering a choice between vassalage and chaos. Meanwhile, the Kiwi and the Aussie dollars were the strongest G10 currencies last week – will it continue this week? And what do falling equity prices in China tell us about the country’s economy and attempts to keep growth high? And is the bear market in oil about to turn?

Monday 12th November 2018

Could hope of a Brexit deal be about to come to an end? Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill about the latest resignation letter to land on Theresa May’s desk, claiming Brexit approach is offering a choice between vassalage and chaos. Meanwhile, the Kiwi and the Aussie dollars were the strongest G10 currencies last week – will it continue this week? And what do falling equity prices in China tell us about the country’s economy and attempts to keep growth high? And is the bear market in oil about to turn?

Friday 9th November 2018

The FOMC has, as expected, kept interest rates on hold. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis just after the announcement. They also look at trade numbers from China and Germany, and what Mario Draghi has been saying to the Irish parliament. Meanwhile Italy and the EU seem to be at loggerheads on budget numbers, and the UK’s Brexit secretary appears a little uninformed, as one cabinet minister breaks ranks on Theresa May’s plan. Plus, what to expect from the RBA statement on monetary policy this morning.

Friday 9th November 2018

The FOMC has, as expected, kept interest rates on hold. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis just after the announcement. They also look at trade numbers from China and Germany, and what Mario Draghi has been saying to the Irish parliament. Meanwhile Italy and the EU seem to be at loggerheads on budget numbers, and the UK’s Brexit secretary appears a little uninformed, as one cabinet minister breaks ranks on Theresa May’s plan. Plus, what to expect from the RBA statement on monetary policy this morning.

Thursday 8th November 2018

The Democrats will take control of the House of Reps in the US, whilst the Republicans retained control (and gained extra seats) in the Senate. So, what does what this means for President Trump’s agenda and will it impact the focus of the Fed? Two questions Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Gavin Friend in London. They also look at Brexit, with a leaked memo giving November 27th as the date the Brexit deal is presented to the House. And the RBNZ meets today, the morning after surprisingly strong employment numbers in New Zealand.