NAB Morning Call

Thursday 8th November 2018

The Democrats will take control of the House of Reps in the US, whilst the Republicans retained control (and gained extra seats) in the Senate. So, what does what this means for President Trump’s agenda and will it impact the focus of the Fed? Two questions Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Gavin Friend in London. They also look at Brexit, with a leaked memo giving November 27th as the date the Brexit deal is presented to the House. And the RBNZ meets today, the morning after surprisingly strong employment numbers in New Zealand.

Wednesday 7th November 2018

As Americans head out to the polls the markets are left guessing whether it’ll be a good or bad result for President Trump. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether a Democrat led House of Representatives would be seen as a good thing, or an inhibitor to further growth? They also discuss the latest Brexit optimism that has seen the pound rise again, with less positivity over Italy. Plus, the take-outs from yesterday’s RBA decision, and what to expect from NZ employment numbers this morning.

Wednesday 7th November 2018

As Americans head out to the polls the markets are left guessing whether it’ll be a good or bad result for President Trump. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether a Democrat led House of Representatives would be seen as a good thing, or an inhibitor to further growth? They also discuss the latest Brexit optimism that has seen the pound rise again, with less positivity over Italy. Plus, the take-outs from yesterday’s RBA decision, and what to expect from NZ employment numbers this morning.

Tuesday 6th November 2018

Whilst President Xi didn’t mention Donald Trump by name there was no doubt who he was talking about when he said, “As globalization deepens, the practices of law of jungle and winner-take-all are a dead end”. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether there could be a clearer sign that trade talks are not moving forward. There are similar concerns over Brexit, where good news is inevitably followed by bad. Meanwhile, we can expect a relatively quiet 24 hours trading as the world waits for the results of the US mid-term elections – now news on that till tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday 6th November 2018

Whilst President Xi didn’t mention Donald Trump by name there was no doubt who he was talking about when he said, “As globalization deepens, the practices of law of jungle and winner-take-all are a dead end”. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether there could be a clearer sign that trade talks are not moving forward. There are similar concerns over Brexit, where good news is inevitably followed by bad. Meanwhile, we can expect a relatively quiet 24 hours trading as the world waits for the results of the US mid-term elections – now news on that till tomorrow afternoon.

Monday 5th November 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a busy week. Sanctions are stepped up against Iran today, and how will President Trump react if Russia continues to re-sell their oil to third nations? It’s mid-terms tomorrow – how will the President behave if his party wins control of both houses? And with strong non-farm payrolls, what’s the expectation now for a December rate hike? Plus, the latest on Brexit, tariffs on China and what to expect from US services PMIs tonight. Plus, will the Aussie dollar push over 72 cents and stay there this week?

Monday 5th November 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of a busy week. Sanctions are stepped up against Iran today, and how will President Trump react if Russia continues to re-sell their oil to third nations? It’s mid-terms tomorrow – how will the President behave if his party wins control of both houses? And with strong non-farm payrolls, what’s the expectation now for a December rate hike? Plus, the latest on Brexit, tariffs on China and what to expect from US services PMIs tonight. Plus, will the Aussie dollar push over 72 cents and stay there this week?

Friday 2nd November 2018

The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply. Some of these falls can be accounted for by cold hard fact – like Australia’s surprisingly strong balance of trade numbers yesterday – but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, much of it is based on rumours and hope. For example, rumours that a deal how been struck for London’s financial sector post-Brexit, and hope that China and US are close to a resolution on their trade disagreements. Today, of course, could bring a different story.

Friday 2nd November 2018

The US dollar staged a swift reversal overnight, with the spot index falling significantly. We’ve also seen US stocks on the rise, along with significant leaps forward for the Aussie dollar and the pound, whilst oil falls sharply. Some of these falls can be accounted for by cold hard fact – like Australia’s surprisingly strong balance of trade numbers yesterday – but, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains, much of it is based on rumours and hope. For example, rumours that a deal how been struck for London’s financial sector post-Brexit, and hope that China and US are close to a resolution on their trade disagreements. Today, of course, could bring a different story.

Thursday 1st November 2018

US equities bounced higher overnight, helped by Facebook’s earnings numbers. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether there’s any logic to the markets behaviour right now. They also discuss movements in bond yields as the government issues more debt, how Brexit negotiations supposedly have an end date, what to expect from Australia’s balance of trade, and what hit the Aussie dollar overnight?