NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 21st November 2018

Oil prices and US equities are back close to where they were at the start of the year when there was so much promise from the President’s expensive stimulus measures. So why, if there are concerns over a weakening US and global economy, is the US dollar on the rise today? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Gavin Friend in today’s Morning Call podcast. Could we see the US dollar weaken and the Aussie gain some strength? After all, we’re one part of the world that seems a step away from the problems facing many other economies. Yet, even with Philip Lowe talking things up last night, the Aussie dollar lost ground overnight.

Tuesday 20th November 2018

US stocks took a big hit today, in part because of rising tensions between the US and China. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether a lack of progress could cause the Fed to rethink it’s expected December rate hike. The market has already downgraded the number of rate rises expected next year because of uncertain global market conditions. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with this rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen, even though the Brexit path forward is as muddy as ever.

Tuesday 20th November 2018

US stocks took a big hit today, in part because of rising tensions between the US and China. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether a lack of progress could cause the Fed to rethink it’s expected December rate hike. The market has already downgraded the number of rate rises expected next year because of uncertain global market conditions. The Aussie and New Zealand dollars seem to have come off the worst out of the major currencies with this rise in uncertainty, whereas Sterling has risen, even though the Brexit path forward is as muddy as ever.

Monday 19th November 2018

The US dollar and Treasury yields fell on Friday as Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said they were close to being neutral on interest rates. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether that means even a December hike could be in question? They also look at the latest on the US-China tariff battle, wthn Trump and Pence blowing hot and cold on the future direction. And has the Aussie dollar finished its losing streak for now?

Monday 19th November 2018

The US dollar and Treasury yields fell on Friday as Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said they were close to being neutral on interest rates. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether that means even a December hike could be in question? They also look at the latest on the US-China tariff battle, wthn Trump and Pence blowing hot and cold on the future direction. And has the Aussie dollar finished its losing streak for now?

Friday November 16th 2018

Theresa May has promised to battle on with her unpopular Brexit proposal, despite several resignations overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about a big fall in the pound, asking how low can it go if the UK shifts towards a no-deal Brexit. They also look at what Jerome Powell had to say about the health of the US economy; and what Guy Debelle had to say about Australia. Plus oil, has it finished its bull run?

Friday November 16th 2018

Theresa May has promised to battle on with her unpopular Brexit proposal, despite several resignations overnight. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about a big fall in the pound, asking how low can it go if the UK shifts towards a no-deal Brexit. They also look at what Jerome Powell had to say about the health of the US economy; and what Guy Debelle had to say about Australia. Plus oil, has it finished its bull run?

Thursday 15th November 2018

Uncertainty on whether the UK Cabinet would pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal played heavily on the pound overnight, but it has rebounded when the deal was approved. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London about what happens next, including rumours of a no confidence vote from Brexiteer MPs. They also look at inflation numbers from the UK and the US, GDP numbers from Europe and Japan, industrial production numbers from China and wage growth data from Australia. Plus, what to expect from Jerome Powell, talking in Dallas in a few hours – and could the US Mexico Canada trade agreement be on the rocks?

Thursday 15th November 2018

Uncertainty on whether the UK Cabinet would pass Theresa May’s Brexit deal played heavily on the pound overnight, but it has rebounded when the deal was approved. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in London about what happens next, including rumours of a no confidence vote from Brexiteer MPs. They also look at inflation numbers from the UK and the US, GDP numbers from Europe and Japan, industrial production numbers from China and wage growth data from Australia. Plus, what to expect from Jerome Powell, talking in Dallas in a few hours – and could the US Mexico Canada trade agreement be on the rocks?

Wednesday 14th November 2018

The EU and UK have agreed a draft 500 page Withdrawal Agreement. It’s the first Nrexit milestone, but will it stick. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about what could be a volatile 24 hours or so for Sterling. They also look at how the Trump factor has influenced oil prices, the Italian budget, and the latest vibes on Chinese trade talks. Plus, what to expect from US CPI numbers tonight, and Aussie wage data today.