NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 2nd December 2025

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Japan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.

Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights.

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Monday 1st December 2025

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For all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week.

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Friday 28th November 2025

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Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.

This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials. 

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Friday 28th November 2025

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Thanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week. 

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Thursday 27th November 2025

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Three central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day.

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Wednesday 26th November 2025

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US equities are on the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thing apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a while ago now, so more up to date records, like the Fed’s Beige Book tonight, will be scrutinised more than normal perhaps. Markets also responded to further speculation that Kevin Hassett will become the Fed chair next year, which could see interest rates pushed lower. Today Australia’s first monthly CPI report is out, the RBNZ makes a decision, and the UK budget is bound to upset someone and create some market volatility, whatever they decide.

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Wednesday 26th November 2025

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US equities are On the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thingS apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a while ago now, so more up to date records, like the Fed’s Beige Book tonight, will be scrutinised more than normal perhaps. Markets also responded to further speculation that Kevin Hassett will become the Fed chair next year, which could see interest rates pushed lower. Today Australia’s first monthly CPI report is out, the RBNZ makes a decision, and the UK budget is bound to upset someone and create some market volatility, whatever they decide.

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Tuesday 25th November 2025

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It might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkable sensitivity, which has not been reflected in bonds or currencies. The Aussie hasn’t seen its usual bounce as US sentiment picks up. Delayed (and out of date) data today includes US retail sales and PPIs

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Monday 24th November 2025

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Last week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had already climbed on Friday as the Fed’s John Williams talked up the chance of a rate cut in December. It’s a relatively quiet week, with the US off for Thanksgiving. Locally the RBNZ meets and Australian CPI is released.

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Friday 14th November 2025

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NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.

One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times?

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