NAB Morning Call

Monday 10th November 2025

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Signs of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.

Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown.

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Friday 7th November 2025

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Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund. $15 billion was set aside for investment in businesses in growth areas, that will boost the economy, create jobs and drive innovation. Their new CEO is former NAB executive David Gall, who joins Phil to talk through the work of the Fund. What sorts of companies do they work with? How do they measure success? And, importantly, how do they ensure that they are not simply crowding out investment that could be made by commercial investors?

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Friday 7th November 2025

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Normally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut.

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Thursday 6th November 2025

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Europe’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.

Meanwhile, markets are in a buoyant mood. Equities are climbing, treasuries are selling off, and sentiment is turning risk-on. 

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Wednesday 5th November 2025

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Those who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem said they weren’t looking to cut soon; the real question was how long they will hold rates for.

Meanwhile, equities took a hit last night, not helped by the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adding to concerns about debt fuelled growth by the Mag Seven. And the revision to European and US PMIs should be worth watching, because there were some sharp moves in the provisional data that might be washed out today.

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Tuesday 4th November 2025

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The Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that mean the RBA’s next move could be up? That’s a question Phil puts to Sally and one that Michele Bullock is likely to face during the press conference this afternoon. We also look at the latest PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers for the US, showing the wide divide in the two-speed economy.

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Monday 3rd November 2025

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Markets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of Friday’s news, including Euro area inflation, Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, Canada’s GDP and another output increase from OPEC+. Plus, a look ahead to this week’s central banks, including the RBA, BoE,, Norges bank and Riksbank.

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Friday 31st October 2025

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There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for Australia, where headline GDP has been driven by strong population growth which has helped to lift business confidence. But there are similarities - inflation risks, rising unemployment and no clear answer to stalled productivity. How much of the difference between the two economies can be blamed on the comparative approach by each central bank, and how much room do they have to manoeuvre if things turn south?

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Friday 31st October 2025

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Donald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s Tokyo CPI might indicate whether they made the right call. There was a mixed picture from yesterday’s tech earnings (it’s not good news all the time), with Apple and Amazon reporting shortly.

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Thursday 30th October 2025

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The FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher.

At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut before May, and that may not happen if unemployment rises too quickly.

The BoJ and ECB meet today, and shortly earnings for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on the day that NVIDIA became a $5 trillion company!

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