NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 29th October 2025

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The S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes their call overnight tonight.

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Tuesday 28th October 2025

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The market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday. 

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Monday 27th October 2025

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Things are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is out this week and, to add to the excitement, earnings results for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Are you ready?

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Friday 17th October 2025

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Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?

James Carouso, who has spent 25 years with the US Department of State, suggests this deal is different. It’s key to the US aim of reducing its reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. For Australia it provides an opportunity to support onshore processing.

James is a senior foreign policy adviser for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and he’s spent a good few years in Canberra as a member of the team negotiating the free trade deal with Australia, ratified in 2005. He clearly thinks Australia should embrace the opportunity and this new partnership could provide the leverage to ask for a reduction in steel and aluminium tariffs.

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Friday 24th October 2025

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Donald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.

NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of the long-awaited CPI numbers, held back because of the government shutdown. There are concerns that it might not be as reliable as previous data. It’s certainly less timely.

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Thursday 23rd October 2025

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Markets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty.

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Wednesday 22nd October 2025

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Markets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty.

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Tuesday 21st October 2025

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Before you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia.

Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week?

And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ?

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Monday 20th October 2025

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Donald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.

The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).

This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan.

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Friday 17th October 2025

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Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.

Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?

Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next.

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