NAB Morning Call

Monday 6th October 2025

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Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent. So what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was OPEC+ decision to lift production. We knew it was coming but the size of the increase is well below what many were expecting. Phil and Taylor also discuss Friday’s ISM data from the US and look ahead to a very quiet week, politics aside. And the RBNZ, of course.

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Friday 3rd October 2025

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NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.

Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s involvement in a fraudulent loan scandal, pursuing an ESG agenda when the American President believes climate change is a scam, plus the risk of rising global debt, both private and public.

Listen in for some frank discussion on The Weekend Edition. 

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Friday 3rd October 2025

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With no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be many more of those soon as the US President threatens to cut jobs in departments and agencies that do not support his agenda. The Australian economy looks in good shape with household spending rising, although the rate of growth has slowed. And the RBA financial stability review shows households are building up savings, with an increasing buffer for mortgage repayments.

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Thursday 2nd October 2025

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Markets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because the US shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the ADP jobs report, the ISM manufacturing survey, Japan’s Tankan survey and European inflation numbers. Today Australia’s trade numbers and household spending data will be of most interest.

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Wednesday 1st October 2025

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Not only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can we tell about the US labour market from the latest data overnight. They also talk about yesterday’s RBA statement and press conference. Did it support NAB’s case that the RBA won’t cut till May?

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Tuesday 30th September 2025

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There has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to today’s RBA meeting. Phil wonders whether the press conference after the rate announcement will support NAB’s position that a cut is not likely now till May.

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Monday 29th September 2025

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Friday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient. Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s latest tariffs, the looming US government shutdown and a swag of data for Australia, along with tomorrow’s RBA meeting.

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Friday 26th September 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day truces, the current one due to expire in early November. What then? Phil talks to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal. He reckons the can will be kicked further down the road. |s that because the US needs China more than China needs them? Could China continue to grow if the US market dries up, particularly given the low levels of consumption in their domestic market? And what’s the role of the PBoC in all this? Monetary policy seems limited, and fiscal policy hasn't been that effective. Part of the solution is to rein in the subsidies of businesses by local authorities as part of a move against ‘involution’.

Next week Phil talks to NAB CEO Andrew Irvine. This is your chance to put a question to him directly on this podcast. Whether it’s on the economy, on banking, on management or on NAB itself, send your question (written or as a sound file attachment) to [email protected]. But be quick!

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Thursday 25th September 2025

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Unexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster?

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Thursday 25th September 2025

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Aussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down?

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