NAB Morning Call

Friday 12th September 2025

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US inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today.

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Thursday 11th September 2025

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US bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for import tariffs. Obviously, we only have to wait for today for a measure of consumer CPI. China’s CPI was mixed, with a fall in the headline rate, but a 0.9% year on year lift in the core rate. Another move overnight was the Aussie dollar – in a session of limited currency moves the Aussie rose well beyond 66 US cents. Phil asks why.

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Wednesday 10th September 2025

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Although we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow).

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Tuesday 9th September 2025

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Are we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the markets, or the Fed to pay too much attention. He also talks to Phil about the collapse of the French government – again - and the positive market reaction to the resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is the key release to keep an eye out for.

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Monday 8th September 2025

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The building evidence in jobs-related data pointed to a disappointing non-farm payrolls number for the US, and on Friday we got it, with a small increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%. NAB’s Skye Masters says it pushed bond yields lower, but highlights that although unemployment is rising, the rate is edging up very slowly. Still, if we see inflation rising this week against a falling jobs market that’ll sound warning bells. Canada’s unemployment numbers on Friday were worse than the US, with job numbers falling. There’s plenty of politics at play, with Japan and France both looking for new Prime Ministers this week.

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Friday 5th September 2025

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The US recently passed The Genius Act, which entrenches the role of Stablecoin in the US economy. Scott Bessent thinks the requirement for Stablecoin operators to back their issuance 1:1 with US currency safe assets, like government securities, will increase demand for US Treasuries and lower borrowing costs. Is it a genius plan or just wishful thinking? Phil puts that question to Simon French, managing director of Panmure Liberum, the UK’s largest independent investment bank. In a recent column in The Times Simon argued that the UK and other governments and central banks need to embrace the technology or risk even more finance concentrated on US currency and assets.

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Friday 5th September 2025

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It would be a big surprise if we saw strong growth in the US non-farm payrolls numbers out tonight (Australia time). As NAB’s Ken Crompton describes, the Challenger Jobs Survey showed sharp rise sin layoffs, the weekly jobless claims continue to rise, and the number of new jobs halved in the latest ADP report. He tells Phul that the report is unlikely to have any impact on the chance of a cut in the September Fed meeting, but it could influence the number of cuts that follow beyond that this year. Whilst the jobs market appears soft, the ISM Services report showed strength, and equity markets are behaving as though everything is just fine. The S&P hit another new high at the US close, for example.

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Thursday 4th September 2025

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The US job openings (JOLTs) data showed a fall in July (7.2 million down from 7.4 million in June, a number which was also revised down). This has adding to the belief that the US jobs market is getting weaker. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the findings and how it has moved tech stocks higher and driven bond yields lower. He also responds to yesterday’s Australian GDP, which came in stronger than NAB’s forecast, but isn’t expected to change the trajectory for RBA cuts. The US Services ISM will be an important number today; in particular, have new orders bounced back after last month’s sharp fall.

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Wednesday 3rd September 2025

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NAB’s Skye Masters says rising government debt is a global issue, but it’s being felt particularly in the UK, where falling confidence in the government is souring sentiment further. As a consequence, 30 year yields rose to the highest level since 1998. As Phil points out, that’s the year Google was founded, and Apple came out with the iMac. US yields are also higher, in part because of continued concern about rising debt if President Trump has to relinquish his tariffs and trade deals. But that won’t happen, will it? He’ll find a way through. Meanwhile, the first bit of key jobs news tonight in the US, with the release of the JOLTs, job openings, data. 

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Tuesday 2nd September 2025

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It was a quiet session overnight with the US on holiday. Instead, there was a focus on Tianjin in China, where Putin, Xi and Modi all got together to talk about the new world order. Phil points out on today’s podcast that collectively these leaders oversee a third of the world’s population. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins in to discuss the latest Aussie GDP partials (more to come today). We also saw gold hit another new high – a confluence of factors could drive it even higher.

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