NAB Morning Call

Monday 1st September 2025

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This could shape up to be quite a busy week, with an expected mix of political and data-driven headlines. But it gets off to a slow start with equity and bond markets closed in the US on Monday for Labour Day. The week ramps up towards the latest non-farm payrolls on Friday, taking in Australia’s Q2 GDP along the way. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it would take a lot for payrolls to divert the Fed away from a September cut. And expect more this week on the legality or otherwise of President Trump’s tariffs.

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Friday 29th August 2025

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Ten years ago Robin Khuda had a vision that data centres needed to be much bigger. Hyper-scaling, as they call it. Back then there was about 400 megawatts of capacity in Australian data centres, and three or four gigawatts across Asia-Pacific & Japan. Today, AirTrunk has two gigawatts portfolio of hyperscale data centres, with big expansion plans across the region. They are attracting big money to fund this expansion, which is responding to the needs of the major tech players and their AI trajectory. Phil talks to Carly Wishart, AirTrunk’s managing director, corporate and international, and Prashant Murthy, managing director capital and strategy. He asks how they move swiftly, secure the necessary funding, stand out from the competition and not run the risk of overbuilding. And what innovative approaches are emerging to power AI responsibly and sustainably?

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Friday 29th August 2025

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The Fed is expected to cut even though the latest GDP numbers show an economy growing – and maybe the PCE numbers today will show inflation is rising. So, is a cut the right thing to do? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Ken Crompton who says, even though September seems bolted on, markets are stepping back on the speed of cuts beyond that. Although that could be determined by how many supporters President Trump parachutes onto the Fed board. A busy day for data lies ahead, including a major dump from Japan and inflation numbers from Europe.

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Thursday 28th August July 2025

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Today’s big news is the 50% tariff slapped on India. Sally Auld says it presents a challenge for India. The tariff is high enough for US importers to look elsewhere for substitute goods. It’ll be welcome news in Europe, though, because the tariff is to stop India buying Russian oil. Europe is, itself, considering secondary tariffs. It’s also fast-tracking an end to many tariffs on US imports, in the hope of bringing down Trump’s tariff on European cars. That’s all interesting stuff but markets are most interested in NVIDIA earnings, which disappointed only in that they didn’t exceed expectations. Still, that seem enough to drag shares down across the chip sector. Phil also asks Sally why Australian inflation came in so much higher than expected yesterday.

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Wednesday 27th August July 2025

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President Trump posted an open letter to the Fed’s Lisa Cook saying she was removed from her position, effectively immediately. Legal proceedings will almost certainly follow, particularly ss she has not yet been charged with any crime, but, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses on today’s podcast, markets have taken it in their stride, apart from a mild steepening in the yield curve.

Aside from that it’s been a quiet session. US consumer confidence data showed continued rising concerns over jobs, but not enough to impact markets, with equities back on the rise today. It’s another quiet session ahead, with Australian CPI the main local interest.

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Tuesday 26th August July 2025

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The initial excitement over a seemingly dovish Jerome Powell on Friday has subsided at the start of the week. Bond yields are rising, and equities are falling. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says Powel was really quite hawkish in his tone, with a weak jobs report or higher inflation (or both) likely to dampen expectations around the number of cuts this year. Meanwhile, Elon Musk is suing Apple and OpenAI, the Trump administration is threatening sanctions on Europe over their digital services taxes, and there’s a vote of no confidence in the French government.

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Monday 25th August July 2025

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Fed chair Jerome Powell surprise markets on Friday when his speech at Jackson Hole had a decided dovish tilt to it. Bond markets reacted but, as NAB’s ray Attrill explains, it didn’t move pricing too much for a September cut. The question is whether more will follow, particularly if the US President manages to oust Lisa Cook and get one of his sympathisers in there. If that forces a faster pace of cuts Ray believes markets will become concerned about inflation becoming unanchored. For now, though, equity markets are happy, particularly the Russell2000 which soared 3.9 percent on Friday.  

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Friday 22nd August 2025

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UIS trade policy has been turbulent, to put it mildly, since Liberation Day in April. Tariffs have moved up and down, some geographic, others sectoral. The reasons have fluctuated, from  stopping fentanyl, to trade imbalance, to political concerns. The benefits have been argued as protecting jobs, brining industries back home to raising revenue.

Dmitry Grozoubinski runs Explain Trade from Geneva, training government officials on complex trade negotiations. He has been involved in  many, having represented Australia at the WTO from 2014 to 2018. His latest book is ‘Why Politicians Lie About Trade’. He joins Phil to talk about this new trade environment, where deals take weeks not years. How should countries be negotiating in this new regime? How long will the current state of flux last? And is a high tariff trade environment the new normal?

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Friday 22nd August July 2025

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US equities closed in the red again today, with losses more broad-based than earlier in the week. In part it’s a response to Walmart’s results, which showed increased revenue but a cut in earnings, suggesting they were losing margin, perhaps because of tariff impacts.

NAB’s Taylor Nugent returns to the Morning Call to give his take on overnight market moves and the latest PMI numbers for Europe and the US. He says pricing for a September cut has reduced slightly ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. Remember there’s always pressure on the Fed chair to say something new and meaningful at this event. Last year it was the dovish pivot.

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Thursday 21st August July 2025

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Tech stocks lost ground again overnight, for no immediately apparent reason, unless it’s still down to comments earlier in the week from OpenAI’s Sam Altman that some people are going to get their fingers burned. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through that, and all the other market moves and overnight news, including the Fed’s hawkish minutes and the RBNZ’s dovish cut. And President Trump’s out to get Lisa Cook fired from the Fed board over allegations of mortgage fraud, so can get another of his people in there.

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