NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 20th August July 2025

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NAB’s Ray Attrill says the RBNZ is expected to cut rates today, even as an upswing inflation is expected in their revised forecasts. One central bank that might not cut at all for the remainder of the year is the Bank of England, with fresh CPI data out later expected to support that case. US equities took a hit, driven by tech stocks. NVIIDA lost ground, in part because their hopes of shipping a new chip to China has been stalled by Scott Bessent’s comments that any new products will need to apply for a licence. President Trump’s decree that goods can be shipped to China as long as the government gets a 15%cut, that deal obviously has conditions attached.

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Tuesday 19th August July 2025

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Having met with Zelensky and Putin separately, President Trump is now aiming for a three-way meeting to try and reach peace in Eastern Europe. The odds are still quite low, though, because it is unlikely Ukraine and Europe will want to surrender territory as part of the process. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says market moves have been somewhat constrained, as we wait for the start of Jackson Hole. There are question marks around whether central banks are cutting too early, with worrying signs of inflation persisting. That’s particularly the case for the UK where yields have been rising noticeably, even beyond the Truss budget experiment in some cases. At home the government’s economic roundtable kicks off at Government House in Caberra, with Michelle Bullock talking first thing.

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Monday18th August July 2025

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US retail sales remain resilient, but the same can’t be said for China. But the worry from Friday in the US is that inflation expectations are ticking higher. Meanwhile Japan’s GDP was firmer than anticipated, supporting the case for a BoJ hike, but when? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is back with Phil to talk through the end of the week data, the repercussion s of the Trump Putin meeting and to look at the week ahead, including the Jackson Hole Symposium. Incidentally, it was a week out from Jacksom Hole that we launched the Morning Call in 2016 so this is, more or less, our ninth birthday.

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Friday 15th August 2025

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The Japanese economy woke from years of stagnation to an inflationary environment that gave businesses the opportunity to raise prices and for workers to demand more money. It provided a growth opportunity that had been missing from the economy, now reflected in the growth in the value of equities and a rising number of M&As.

You’d be forgiven for thinking that enthusiasm would disappear as the country faced unprecedented tariffs from their biggest export partner. Yet the toned-down tariff deal this month, which has still not been written into a formal agreement, has seen the Nikkei reach new highs and M&As are still being signed.

This week Harry Ishihara, an independent macro strategist based in Tokyo, returns to the Weekend Edition to give his views on the Japanese economy now, how companies are working their way round tariffs, the practicality of the $550billion investment that the US is expecting and what it all means for the Bank of Japan.

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Friday 15th August July 2025

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil on this morning’s podcast. Phil suggests there are three signs that tariffs are having an impact. First, producer prices were up more sharply than expected in the US. Second, the UK trade deficit fell sharply. And European industrial production fell too. They also look ahead to Japan’s GDP, retail sales for the US and China, pricing data from New Zealand, the US government’s plan for a stake in Intel and the atmosphere ahead of the Trump Putin meeting this time tomorrow. 

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Thursday 14th August July 2025

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Equities are rising, and not just in the US. In fact, the MSCI World Equities Index hit a record high overnight. But  bonds are the story today, says NAB’ s Gavin Friend, with 10year Treasury yields down 5 basis points. Markets have got a cut from the Fed fully priced in for September, but Scott Bessent said in an interview he’d like to see a 50bp cut at the next meeting. His boss, meanwhile, spoke out for 300bp of cuts or more.

Phil and Gavin also talk about yesterday’s Australian wages data and look ahead to today’s employment data. Plus, UK’s GDP, expected to be very slow with the potential to tip into negative territory for Q2.

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Wednesday 13th August July 2025

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Markets have looked at the latest inflation data from the US, assumed companies are largely swallowing the cost of import tariffs, which removes the excuse for the Fed to hold off cutting rates in September. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are close to fully pricing a cut. The US dollar is weaker from the news but continued to fall as resident Trump once again criticised Jerome Powell for being too late to cut and threatened action to have him removed.

Phil and Ken also talk about yesterday’s RBA decision, and the NAB business survey which showed a slight increase in business confidence, but a fall in conditions. Wage pressures continue to blight Blighty in yesterday’s labour market data, with Australia’s (significantly lower) wage growth data out today.

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Tuesday 12th August July 2025

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There’s been very little market movement despite some surprising news. First, President Trump announced a 15% tariff on exports from NVIDIA and AMD for AI chips headed to China. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a surprising move that a restriction supposedly on national security grounds has been foregone in exchange for a government revenue stream. Secondly, the 90-day truce on China’s tariffs, due to finish today, has been given another 90 days. And concerns continue about what will happen at the Trump Putin meeting in Alaska on Friday, President Zelensky says the Russian President is buying time and he is now amassing more troops on the border ready for a fresh onslaught. Today the focus will be on US inflation numbers and forecasts from the RBA after their expected rate cut today. 

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Monday 11th August July 2025

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This will be a very significant week and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it. For a start, we’ll be getting US inflation data tomorrow, to help answer the question around the impact of tariffs. One man who doesn’t believe it’s an issue is Stephen Miran, President Trump’s new man for the FOMC, but will he be in place to exert his influence at the next meeting? There’s also that meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska at the end of the week, but it seems highly unlikely it’ll lead to a lasting resolution, but it could see oil prices swayed by the geopolitical consequences. Locally there’s the RBA tomorrow and a slew of data. Get ready for an action packed week.

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Friday 8th August 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Cath Carver is NAB’s Head of Corporate and Institutional Banking. She’s been in the role for a year but is close to clocking up ten years with the bank, with a long track record in finance and banking before that. Towards the end of this podcast Phil asks her if there’s anything she would have done differently if, years back she knew what she knows now. Her reply is, she’d have been bolder. ‘Not that we’ve been holding back,’ she says, ‘but we’ve got to be bold for our clients.’ Part of that comes from working with diverse teams and allowing people to be themselves at work. They also talk about the state of the global economy, Australia’s opportunity within it, and how to address Australia’s housing affordability issue. Something else that Cath says is looking for a bold solution.

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