NAB Morning Call

Friday8th August July 2025

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As of yesterday, US imports were hit with an average 15% tariff. Time will tell who is feeling the hurt the most, but on today’s podcast we hear about the impact on the auto industry, and German industrial production. China meanwhile saw exports rise again.

On today’s podcast, as well as talking tariffs, NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to discuss the very close call on cuts from the Bank of England, revisions to NAB’s FX forecast for the Aussie dollar, and what to expect from, China’s CPI out this weekend.

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Thursday 7th August July 2025

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US equities are up at the close. Helped by an announcement that Apple will invest heavily domestic production. It seems investors have forgotten weaker ISM and jobs data over the last week. India has been hit with another 25bp in tariffs for purchasing oil from India, although President Trump is now hoping to resolve the Ukraine crisis, possibly meeting with Putin next week. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through these events, plus stronger thane expected Europpean data, and looks ahead to the Bank of England meeting, where a cut is expected. The question is, how much by?

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Wednesday 6th August July 2025

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The S-word has been used a bit overnight as the US ISM Services number showed falls in employment, new orders and rising prices. But, as NAB’s Skye Masters points out, the counter to that is the PMI number for the same month, which rose substantially. So, pick your number, or wait for the dust to settle. Meanwhile President Trump threatened more tariffs during a CNBC interview overnight. He’s already warned India that they face substantial extra tariffs over their purchases of Russian oil, now he is warning of tariffs on microchips and pharmaceuticals  (ultimately rising to 250%!), kicking off within the next week.  

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Tuesday 5th August July 2025

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Has Friday’s jobs data been forgotten about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril, pointing out that there’s very little movement in bond yields. But there’s been no retracement either and auctions this week will test the mettle of investors as to whether any long-term damage has been done by the BLS sacking and Trump’s moves on the Fed board. There’s been a further move down in oil, as India is threatened with increased tariffs for continuing to buy Russian oil.

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Monday 4th August July 2025

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There were sharp market moves on Friday after all the shenanigans in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill tells us how markets responded to a far weaker than expected non-farm payrolls report, that included two substantial reductions in the numbers for the prior two months. Market repriced expectations for a cut next month. That would seem to give the President what he wanted, but nonetheless he sacked the head of the statistical agency collecting the data. Markets responded to that news. Then one of the Fed board, Adriana Kugler, resigned, effective the end of this week, giving the President the chance to put his own man or woman onto the board. Quite a day!

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Friday 2nd August 2025

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NZ Super Fund is New Zealand’s sovereign wealth fund (SWF), that has earned a reputation for delivering the strongest returns of any SWF globally. So what’s their secret and how do they perform against private funds?

Brad Dunstan, their Chief Investment Officer, says the advantage of time on their side. They don’t have to meet demands for payouts, so they have the luxury of a longer-term view. He also says their Total Portfolio Approach is part of their success and explains to Phil how that works.

But does success in the past guarantee success in the future? How is Brad and the team at NZ Super Fund navigating the uncertainties of Trump’s America, the promises of new technologies and the role of Europe in the world order? And how important is New Zealand itself to their investment mix?

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Friday 1st August July 2025

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Yesterday the US President warned there will be no delays on tariffs ahead of the August 1 deadline. Hours later he announced a 90-day delay for Mexico but warned that Canada’s support for Palestine would make a deal difficult. NABs Ken Crompton talks about how non—trade criteria are creeping into the US tariff regime, and it remains uncertain who will get hit with what today. The other big news today is non-farm payrolls tonight, and in earnings Amazon beat revenue forecasts put posted a weaker outlook for Q3, whilst Apple gave a healthier set of figures.

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Thursday31st July 2025

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If anything, the Fed was sounding slightly hawkish at today’s meeting, says NAB’s Tapas Strickland, erven though two dissenters voted for a rate cut. The fear and uncertainty around the inflationary impacts of tariffs is part of the problem, and markets are now seeing a September cut as more or less each way bet. A cut in the range of copper products that will be tariffed from tomorrow drove a sharp fall in copper prices today, but a reminder from the President that tomorrow is deadline today and there will be no extensions (except for those already agreed of course). Meanwhile, strong earnings from Meta and Microsoft after the US close.

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Wednesday 30th July 2025

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Oil is the big mover overnight as President Trump confirms Russia has just 10 days to end the war before he imposes secondary tariffs. US equities have fallen. Meanwhile, it seems likely that China will have longer to reach an agreement. Meanwhile, US consumer confidence is rising, although, as NAB’s Sally Auld points out, the Conference Board report also highlighted growing concerns about the labour market. And the Treasury has said their Q3 borrowing requirement is an eye watering $1 trillion.

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Tuesday 29th July 2025

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The euphoria over a US—EU trade deal didn’t last long. It has helped catapult the US dollar higher, but at the expense of a big fall in the Euro, with European equities also well down. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through the about turn, with the realisation that 15% tariffs will slow the European economy. As a result, copper and iron ore prices are well down. Oil, though, is much higher with the prospect of secondary tariffs on Russian oil looming, after President Trump gave Putin 10-to 12 days to sort out a peace deal for Ukraine.

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