NAB Morning Call

Friday 17th October 2025

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Australia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.

Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment.

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Thursday 16th October 2025

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US equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year.

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Wednesday 15th October 2025

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It’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses.

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Tuesday 14th October 2025

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The release of hostages and prisoners in Israel and Gaza is the good news story of the year, but markets are still more concerned about the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. Equities have bounced back, and the Aussie dollar has regained some ground, but both sides are waiting for the other side to make the first move. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the market response, and looks ahead to a day light on data, but strong on central bank speakers and corporate earnings. Can the rebound in US equities hold?

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Monday 13th October 2025

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Markets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are simply seeing another TACO moment, in which case, will the markets settle down today?

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Friday 10th October 2025

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Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices could start to retrace a little. John’s view is that gold is being used to hedge against US dollar exposure. Does that mean as long as the uncertainty of US policies and economic outlook remains, gold will continue to do well?

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Friday 10th October 2025

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The US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new management, how are markets responding to that? Michelle Bullocks testimony to the senate economics committee will be one highlight today, along with Canada’s employment data, which could determine the next move by the BoC.

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Thursday 9th October 2025

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The Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable currency investments. The Yen, for example, is getting weaker and Europe is being hit with more weak economic data.

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Wednesday 8th October 2025

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The US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in a row yesterday, and the NZ quarterly survey of business optimism didn’t help determine whether the RBNZ will lean to a 25bp or 50bp cut today. It’s still too close to call.

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Tuesday 7th October 2025

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It’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre deal with AMD. It added $80 billion to the value of OpenAI and raised flags for those worried about the potential for a tech-bubble. And the US government shutdown moves into day seven. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through a session light on data and heavy on news.

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