NAB Morning Call

Friday 21st November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

What do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 20th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

 Nothing seems to be quite hitting the spot. Our podcast is too early today to bring you the NVIDIA earnings results, which have left equities in no man’s land this week. We did get a chance to glimpse the latest Fed minutes before we hit the stop button though.

The other news this morning is that the November non-farm payrolls number will be delayed, meaning there will be no other report beyond September’s delayed release tonight, ahead of the December meeting. The data is just too late, and the Fed continues to fly blind.

And oil prices have fallen over fears there’s too much oil.  A resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict, which is again making headlines, could add to that downward pressure.   

NAB’s Gavin Friend in London joins Phil to talk through all of this, plus UK inflation and Australian wages data.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 19th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Markets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment.

We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.

The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 18th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

There have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monday 17th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

President Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.

Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.

Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s  budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday 14th November 2025

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.

Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.

Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? 

Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Friday14th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Sally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties.

Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thursday 13th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

It’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.

The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Wednesday 12th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

It was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run  average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December. 

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tuesday 11th November 2025

NAB Markets Research Disclaimer 

Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB

Equity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.