NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 8th November 2017

There’s been more uncertainty in Saudi Arabia, where those not being arrested are having assets frozen. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis why this has seen oil prices switch direction, with Brent Crude down 0.8 percent. They also discuss dismal retail figures for the UK, whilst shopping is on the up on the other side of the channel. And has anyone noticed how President Trump shoots from the hip a little less about countries he’s actually in at the time? Locally they discuss yesterday’s announcement from the RBA, and the potential for a change to the RBNZ Act on the other side of the Tasman.

Tuesday 7th November 2017

Oil has gained again overnight, driven by concerns over political stability in Saudi Arabia as the crown prince tries to push through reforms. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains to Phil Dobbie, the Australian Dollar has been one of the main beneficiaries. They also discuss Trump’s visit to Asia, words from the BoJ’s Governor Kuroda, and why the pound climbed ahead of the next round of Brexit talks.

Monday 6th November 2017

President Trump is in Japan on the first leg of his 13 day Asian tour. In today’s Morning Call Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the potential for more geopolitical influence over the next week or so. Plus, mixed data from the US on Friday, and the impact of another set of weak retail figures on the Aussie dollar. Plus the continued rise on oil and a warming on debt from the Governor of the Peoples Bank of China.

Friday 3rd November 2017

There’s little to surprise today, except for the sharp fall in the pound. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis why Sterling reacted so sharply to the Bank of England’s announcement today. There’s been virtually no reaction to the news, leaked earlier, that Jay Powell would be the next Fed Chair, and mixed movements in response to leaked portions of the US tax bill, which is still to see the light of day. And what of Australian retail sales – will they bounce back after a big fall in August?

Thursday 2nd November 2017

The least surprising news of the week was the US Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold. But, as Ray Attrill explains to Phil Dobbie, the firm expectation is that the next meeting will see a hike, and the last press conference by Janet Yellen. It looks like we’ll have to wait another day to find out who will be her successor, and to see the text of the tax bill. We look at the impact the delay is having on markets. And the UK set to see an interest rate rise tonight.

The new month kicks off with lower than expected PMIs from China. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the impact this has had on the Aussie and New Zealand dollar. There’s also weaker than expected inflation in Europe and slower GDP from Canada. But it’s not all bad news; US consumer confidence is the highest its’ been since the year 2000 and Brexit talks might be speeding up a little. And Donald Trump says the tax plan is 90% written.

Tuesday 31st October 2017

The US equity markets have reacted to news that the Trump administration’s tax plan could see corporate tax reductions phased in over five years. Hardly a quick win. Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the market reaction, the re-emergency of Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian links during the Presidential election, the smoothing over of Catalonian cracks, and economic data from Europe and China. Plus much more!

The US economy continues to go from strength to strength, helped on Friday by a steep jump in tech stocks and a GDP reading that was scarcely influenced by the two hurricanes that hit the US last quarter. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether this positive news increases the likelihood of the Trump tax bill being passed, with the full detail expected this week. They also look at the next Fed chair, with the contest possibly over already. And what of the Aussie and Kiwi dollar’s this week?

Friday 27th October 2017

The ECB announced the long anticipated tapering of its QE program yet, even though it was expected, the Euro has taken a hit. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend in London about the ECB meeting and surprising retail figures for the UK. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the impact of the US budget, how the Fed chair role is now a two horse race, why oil has been on the rise and what Guy Debelle’s been saying about inflation and jobs.

Thursday 26th October 2017

Two republican senators have had a dummy spit and could make life difficult for President Trump. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether the market is back to questioning whether the tax reform bill will actually happen. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on the ECB tonight, with the expected details of tapering of their asset purchase program. Plus, the fallout from Australia’s inflation figures and the UK’s GDP figures – both surprised, in opposite directions.