NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 11th October 2017

Catalonia’s President has said he can’t ignore the will of the people and needs to push for independence of his region, but will negotiate with Spain rather than make a binding declaration right now. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis how the markets reacted to the news. They also discuss data from the UK that could give the Bank of England more reasons to raise interest rates. And a twitter battle could see Trump lose vital support for his tax plan. All that and more on the daily podcast that keeps you abreast of what’s driving markets.

Argie bargy between Presidents Trump and Erdogan has hit the Turkish Lira overnight. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland this is another area of unrest in an increasingly complex political landscape. Meanwhile it’s a day for putting figures right – the UK’S ONS admits they underestimated wage growth and China’s Caixin Services PMI tells the exact opposite story to the official figures last week. Plus the EU and the UK argue over who is next to serve in a match that is going nowhere. New balls please.

Monday October 9th 2017

When President Trump talks of the calm before the storm we can assume he’s not speaking meteorologically. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Ray Attrill what the return of Trump’s rhetoric against North Korea mean for the markets this week. They also look at the impact of the recent storms on Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, and look at some of the things we might learn this week. Like the composition of the New Zealand government and perhaps the new chair of the US federal Reserve. Plus the potential for more unrest in Spain and in the UK cabinet. And China returns from a week’s holiday with fresh Caixin PMI Services data. Will it differ from the official figures?

Friday 6th October 2017

US data continues to surprise on the upside. Phil Dobbie talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril about the US balance of trade and weekly jobless claims – both better than expected. Should we revise dour expectations for the non-farms payroll data tonight? In any case, Fed speakers are out in force, most talking up the economy. Less optimism in Europe, where the ECB ponders its rate of QE wind back, Catalonia readies itself for a split and Theresa May struggles to get her mojo back.

Thursday 5th October 2017

Further signs of the strength of the US economy with positive service sector data and a strong employment reading. Yet, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Tapas Strickland, it did little to move the US dollar. Perhaps speculation over who will chair the Fed is weighing it down. They also look at two significant pieces of data for Australia today, the latest on Catalonia, what Putin had to say and how Theresa May’s speech went so badly wrong.

Wednesday 4th October 2017

UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson gave a speech this morning in which he urged the UK to stop treating the Brexit referendum result as a “plague of boils”, yet over the Channel the EU continue to see Britain’s warring cabinet as a reason for slow progress on finding an agreed exit strategy. As Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s Ray Attrill there’s uncertainty over the Atlantic too, where lines are being drawn between Republicans who will pass a tax bill that cuts deeper into the budget deficit, and those who won’t. And the RBA changed nothing yesterday, but was there any noticeable shift in attitude?

3th October 2017

The good news from the US is a stellar Manufacturing ISM reading – the best in 13 years. The bad news, of course, is the horrific shooting in Las Vegas. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s David de Garis whether this will add to politic uncertainty, in much the same way as police violence in Catalonia has impacted Spanish bonds and the Euro. The positive manufacturing story is echoed in China and Japan, but not Britain where Brexit uncertainty continues to be a negative force. Plus, what to expect from the RBA today.

Monday 2nd October 2017

It looks like the week will be influenced by US politics again. In particular, how will Trump’s tax plan progress, and who is expected to be the next chair of the US Federal Reserve. Whilst it’s unlikely have a definitive answer to either question this week the speculation could have some market impact, as Phil Dobbie discusses with NAB’s David de Garis. They also touch on Friday’s US inflation figures, this week’s non-farm payrolls, the troubles in Catalan and the RBA meeting tomorrow.

The positive sentiment in the US seems to have stalled a little overnight. Despite positive trade figures and a slight increase in the Q2 GDP estimate, the US dollar lost ground. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether the lack of specific detail on yesterday’s tax plan is the main area of concern. They also look at what’s keeping Europe happy today, what’s been keeping the Aussie dollar down and what was said at the Bank of England conference yesterday. Plus a look ahead to tonight’s US PCE deflators – are we nearing an end to the ‘mystery’ low inflation?

Thursday 28th September 2017

President Trump’s administration has released a nine page tax blueprint for America. As NAB’s David de Garis discusses with Phil Dobbie, the markets have reacted strongly, as though there’s an expectation that this time there will be enough support for the plans to get traction and actually see the light of day. They also discuss an interesting chapter in today’s IMF World Economic Outlook that looks at the relationship between economic growth and salaries. That, and a plethora of central bank speak across the globe – they’re out in force today.